The Painted Area

2011-12 NBA Win Over/Under Predictions

2011-12-25T08:01:00.000-08:00

It's once again time for the annual favorite here at The Painted Area, as we offer our predictions for picking NBA regular-season win over/unders. We're under the gun here this season, as the craziness of this offseason postponed any O/U lines until the last couple days, so these are really for posterity's sake, as we've raced to get them posted just before season tip-off.

For the record, we were 5-2 in O/U predictions in 2010-11, with the 71% success rate lifting our lifetime percentage since we started The Painted Area to a robust 66.7%.

Here are our year-by-year records for the four years we've been publishing our picks:

Season  TPA  
06-07   6-1  
07-08   3-4  
08-09   5-2  
09-10   3-2 
10-11   5-2 
Total   22-11

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For 2011-12, let's go straight to the data. What we've done below is:

John

Hollinger

Kevin Pelton

from his essential book, Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12

pro-rated to a 66-game season

As always, these are for entertainment purposes only.

EAST
(O/U Line  - JH/KP - '10-11*)
MIA   50.5 - 52/48 - 47
CHI   47.5 - 48/46 - 50
NYK   41.5 - 35/36 - 34
BOS   38.5 - 43/36 - 45
ORL   37.5 - 40/40 - 42
PHI   36.5 - 37/36 - 33
IND   36.5 - 36/33 - 30
ATL   34.5 - 33/31 - 35
MIL   31.5 - 34/32 - 28
NJN   25.5 - 28/29 - 19
DET   21.5 - 22/26 - 24
WAS   20.5 - 22/20 - 19
CLE   16.5 - 18/22 - 15
TOR   16.5 - 19/28 - 18
CHA   15.5 - 13/28 - 27

WEST
(O/U Line  - JH/KP - '10-11*)
OKC   48.5 - 45/40 - 44
DAL   42.5 - 39/37 - 46
SAS   40.5 - 42/38 - 49
LAC   40.5 - 41/40 - 26
LAL   40.5 - 40/34 - 46
MEM   38.5 - 37/32 - 37
DEN   37.5 - 43/35 - 40
POR   37.5 - 38/38 - 39
HOU   32.5 - 32/33 - 35
PHX   27.5 - 24/28 - 32
GSW   26.5 - 26/25 - 29
UTH   25.5 - 27/30 - 31
NOH   24.5 - 22/31 - 37 
MIN   24.5 - 29/33 - 14
SAC   20.5 - 25/26 - 19

This year's 66-game schedule is 80.5% as long as the standard 82-game season. For reference, here are how 66-game win totals translate to a 82-game slate:

Here are what we're calling the consensus picks from Hollinger/Pelton - teams which are at least three wins above or below the line in the same direction by both men's projections:

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THE PAINTED AREA'S RECOMMENDED 2011-12 O/U PREDICTIONS
A couple key factors seem to be driving our picks this year: coaching changes and team depth, given the unique nature of this year's condensed schedule.

Here are our picks for 2011-12:

TOR Over 16.5
DET Over 21.5
MIN Over 24.5
DEN Over 37.5
NYK Under 41.5
LAL Under 40.5

MIL Over 31.5

Here's our rationale on the team picks:
TORONTO OVER 16.5 (22 last season/18 pro-rated)
DETROIT OVER 21.5 (30 last season/24 pro-rated)
Two similar situations here. These were two of the worst defensive teams in the league last season, and neither team had a whole lot of roster turnover in the offseason, though both teams made what we consider to be significant coaching upgrades to defensive-minded coaches. Toronto moved from Jay Triano to the architect of Dallas' championship defense, Dwane Casey, while Detroit changed leadership from John Kuester to Lawrence Frank. Also, while both these teams are lottery-bound because of a lack of star talent, the Raptors and the Pistons do both have pretty good depth, which should help them grab a few extra wins. Ultimately, we're expecting both these teams to be a little better due to defensive improvement, rather than a little worse, which is why we're going over.

MINNESOTA OVER 24.5 (17 last season/14 pro-rated)
This is another selection rooted primarily in a coaching change, as the T-wolves moved from an atrocious head coach in Kurt Rambis to an outstanding one in Rick Adelman. It makes us a little nervous that this over requires such a big jump in wins, but we're going to trust in our guys Hollinger and Pelton, who both project Minny handily above the number. The Minnesota roster is filled with young players who should be on the upswing, and they have plenty of depth, as well.

NEW YORK UNDER 41.5 (42 last season/34 pro-rated)
We're trusting Hollinger and Pelton again here, as both project the Knicks well below their O/U line. We fully believe in the logic that a roster which is injury-prone at the top and quite thin in reserve is not terribly well-built for this season. The only thing that makes us nervous is that someone other than Miami and Chicago has to win significant games in the East, and the Knicks seem like they have as good a shot as any of the remaining teams to do so.

L.A. LAKERS UNDER 40.5 (57 last season/46 pro-rated)
There could not be a team built worse for this particular season, given how old and fiber-optic thin they are in terms of talent. Not only do the Lakers only have three good players, but there are significant questions about how well two of those guys, Kobe and Bynum, can physically withstand the grueling schedule. This is a team in decline, not a championship contender as presently constructed.

DENVER OVER 37.5 (50 last season/40 pro-rated)
As we wrote in our season predictions post yesterday, we've totally bought the Mile-High Kool-Aid that John Hollinger was selling on this team in his Western Conference forecast. Now that Nene and Arron Afflalo are back in the fold, the Nuggets are perfectly constructed for the truncated season - outstanding depth, with one of the best second-units in basketball, plus the high-altitude home-court advantage which should be more pronounced than ever.

MILWAUKEE OVER 31.5 (35 last season/28 pro-rated)
After a 46-win season in '09-10, the Bucks were the team hit hardest by injuries in '10-11. We think they'll have a solid bounce-back above .500, and in particular, we like what we're reading about how Andrew Bogut is feeling, after struggling all last season with the elbow that he injured seriously in '09-10. We do have some concerns about when the inevitable Scott Skiles burnout will occur, but we're rolling with the Bucks nonetheless.

OK, there you have it. If there's one team we feel like we might regret including, it's San Antonio, with a line set at 40.5 (equivalent to about 50.5 for an 82-game regular season). This is a team which has played 50-plus-win basketball for the entirety of Tim Duncan's career, since '97-98. Alas, the age of the often-banged up Big 3 has me a little too skittish.

Happy holidays, everyone - thanks for reading and enjoy the season!

2011-12 NBA Season Predictions: Oklahoma City Thunder over Miami Heat

2011-12-23T05:06:00.001-08:00

The league is (finally) back, rejoice.

A year ago, when we offered our 2010-11 season predictions, we noted in our headline that the NBA was "More Wide Open Than We Think." The consensus was that the Heat and the Lakers would meet in the Finals, yet we presented cases for seven teams (including Miami and Los Angeles) as contenders... and we didn't even include the team which ended up winning it all, the Dallas Mavericks, not to mention other teams which emerged as tough squads, like Memphis and Denver.

This year, as we survey the NBA landscape, our feelings have done something of a 180. Namely, we'll be surprised if anyone other than the Oklahoma City Thunder, Miami Heat or Chicago Bulls end up playing in the 2012 NBA Finals. Beyond our Big 3, we see a vast second tier of teams with too many question marks to truly contend for the Larry O.B. in this condensed lockout season.

On top of that, we're picking the Thunder to beat the Heat to win the 2011-12 NBA championship. If we had to boil it down, we'd have to say that a decisive factor is that we simply don't trust LeBron James anymore. In our opinion, LeBron's underachievement in key playoff games is the primary reason that his teams have not won championships in each of the last two seasons.

We think Oklahoma City is poised to dominate the Western Conference this season - we could foresee the difference between first and second being about the same as the gap between second and seventh. The Thunder were really not that far from becoming the youngest team to ever win it all last year. OKC was clearly a better team than Dallas for the first 42-44 minutes per game, but the veteran Mavs out-executed the Thunder at crunch time.

Now, the Thunder are back with that experience under their belts, with its key players still young on the rise (Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are already among the league's top dozen players, and James Harden and Serge Ibaka are poised to bust out further), plus they'll have a svelte and healthy Kendrick Perkins available for the whole year, and their exceptional team depth leaves them perfectly suited for this year's schedule.

What's not to like? Well, coach Scotty Brooks is the big question mark, for sure, after getting Dirks run around him by Rick Carlisle. But we think another year of experience will help the Thunder execute better, and the depth of talent on their roster is just too strong.

We certainly expect the Miami Heat to be a formidable ballclub again, and likely improved after one year together. We're especially excited to see their new "pace and space" offensive philosophy (as described by Tom Haberstroh in an exceptional piece on ESPN.com) in action, as it seems to be a style of play, which fits the personnel much better than the fairly methodical, set-heavy game which Miami employed for much of last season. We'll see if, when the games are on hardwood rather than whiteboard, more freedom works, and sticks for the entire season.

We were expecting the Heat to have a better offseason than they did. Maybe they can still grab a buyout guy or a Chinese League refugee, and maybe promising late first-round pick Norris Cole can provide just the boost Miami needs at point guard, but the Shane Battier signing left us largely unmoved. Yes, he should be a good fit this season, though he is clearly in decline at 33, and with a three-year deal, Battier continues the Heat's disturbing trend of signing guys until they're 35, joining Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller. Also, the Heat's lack of depth, given this year's schedule, makes us think that they'll once again have to chase the Bulls without home-court advantage.

Still, via experience and a new style of play, we think this will be an improved team, and we're giving them a narrow edge over Chicago.

Speaking of the Chicago Bulls, they come back with their well-constructed roster largely intact, providing cohesion which should serve them well this season, and a roster with no returning rotation players over 30, suggesting they are still a team on the rise. The key move was exchanging Keith Bogans for Rip Hamilton. As with Battier, we have some concerns about adding a 33-year-old wing, but we think Hamilton will be a good fit under Tom Thibodeau, and is certainly an upgrade over Bogans.

These Bulls should be neck-and-neck with Miami, but they'll need much-better playoff production from Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer than they got in the Eastern Conference Finals. With its depth and cohesion, Chicago should be the top seed in the East, though one wonders if Thibodeau's ceaselessly hard-driving style has a chance of backfiring given this season's schedule.

Here are some quick thoughts on teams we rate in the next tier:
WEST
Denver Nuggets: We spent most of the summer assuming Denver would take a step back, with three free agents going to China, and Nene likely to sign elsewhere, with the possibility of Arron Afflalo. But now that they got those two guys back, we've bought John Hollinger's logic on the Nuggets hook, like and sinker: *very* deep roster, headed by two borderline All-Star talents in Nene and Danilo Gallinari, plus high-altitiude, and maybe a dash of a March acquisition of Wilson Chandler, and these guys should roll up the regular-season wins. We're drinking some Mile High Kool-Aid: we agree with Hollinger about Denver finishing second in the West.

Dallas Mavericks: We certainly feel uneasy about discounting the Mavs' title chances after last season. But this was the second-oldest team to ever win a championship, so we think it's going to be tough to recapture that lightning in a bottle, especially given the tough blows to the team defense in losing both Tyson Chandler and assistant coach Dwane Casey, despite the donation of Lamar Odom from the Lakers. Rick Carlisle will win them more games than they should, and Dirk is still Dirk, but it's too much to ask the 2011 postseason magic to continue.

Los Angeles Lakers: It's not shocking that the Lakers' odds to win the championship are right up there with the Heat, Thunder and Bulls, given that they're such a public team, but boy howdy, is it sure ridiculous. As we've been saying since L.A.'s ugly playoff exit, this is a team in clear decline without many means for getting better. With the inexplicable Odom trade, the Lakers are pretty much down to three good players, two of whom (Kobe, Bynum) may have trouble withstanding this year's punishing schedule at peak effectiveness. We don't see this team finishing top-four in the West, and we absolutely don't see them contending for the championship, barring some sort of incredibly favorable deal for Dwight Howard.

San Antonio Spurs: It's been weird that, all offseason, conventional wisdom has seemed to suggest that the Lakers' championship window is still open, while the Spurs' is unquestionably closed, given that San Antonio was a better team in the regular season and the playoffs last year (Spurs losing to Memphis in six tough games with a banged-up Ginobili > Lakers beating a David West-less New Orleans, the worst team in the playoffs, in six tough games). Certainly, there are questions about the aging of the Spurs' Big 3, and we think George Hill-for-Kawhi Leonard is a downgrade in the short term, but we still see this as a formidable team. Tiago Splitter is the key player if the Spurs are going to be true contenders. He has to become the contributor he was expected to be coming off the kind of MVP season in the Spanish League that guys like Luis Scola and Marc Gasol used to propel them to quality NBA career.

Los Angeles Clippers: We certainly can't wait to watch the Lob City Clippers, as this promises to be a League Pass team for all time, and we certainly think this ballclub can ride the good vibes of the Chris Paul trade to significant improvement leading to a possible top-four finish in the West. While we think the Paul is a definite improvement, we wish that L.A. had held out for a better deal (considering it was unclear what other team was a realistic trading partner for the Fifth Avenue Hornets). Long-term, every asset counts when you're trying to compete with the OKC juggernaut Sam Presti has put together. Indeed, the Clips gave up so many assets to acquire Paul that they are extremely thin, though they do have four good point guards - we'll see if they can deal for frontcourt depth. Caron Butler might be a decent fit for now, but we certainly don't like him on a three-year deal, and Vinny Del Negro is still a cause for concern. But sit back and enjoy the ride - the Clippers definitely have a good chance to win the championship of L.A., even if an NBA title still requires a few more moves.

Memphis Grizzlies: With its strong starting unit, Memphis could once again be a very tough out come playoff time, but lack of depth is a problem - and now a serious one up front following the loss of valuable reserve Darrell Arthur - which should cost the Grizz a few regular-season wins. We have the Grizzlies sixth in our predicted conference standings, (again, we think there's a good chance that sixth will be closer to second place than second will be to Oklahoma City in first), but advancing to the second round again.

Portland Trail Blazers: We just wanted to pour out a little 40 to honor the Blazers era that should have been. Yes, Portland has done quite well to stay competitive amidst its myriad injuries, and still has plenty of intriguing assets for the future. But, right now, we should be gearing up for an epic rivalry developing between the Roy-Oden-Aldridge Blazers and the Thunder. But it was not meant to be, and that sucks.

EAST
Boston Celtics: We've written off these Celtics before, at our peril, so we're reluctant to do so again, but it's tough to see this as anything but a team in decline, as Boston's Big 3 ages without any significant young talent to the rescue other than Rajon Rondo, whom the C's don't seem particularly inclined to keep, and with the death of ubuntu following the Kendrick Perkins donation to Oklahoma City. Last year, this team was on the same tier as Miami and Chicago. Not this year.

Orlando Magic: Even if Dwight Howard were committed to staying, we wouldn't have the Magic on the same tier as Miami or Chicago. Wasting a valuable trade asset like Marcin Gortat in last year's disastrous trades blew Otis Smith's best chance to keep this team viable. Now, with long-term signings of Jason Richardson and Big Baby Davis, Smith continues to pile up questionable moves, and the glass appears half-empty at best for Orlando.

New York Knicks: The Knicks should be too thin to rack up gaudy regular-season numbers, but could be a pesky postseason team with the nucleus of Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, Tyson Chandler and Baron Davis. It's a bit perilous given the collective health history of those four, and New York doesn't have enough depth of talent to win the East, but this is clearly the best Knicks team since Jeff Van Gundy left a decade ago, and a Heat-Knicks playoff series would be wildly entertaining.

Indiana Pacers: The Pacers are a fascinating team, with lots of red-chip players, but zero blues. Indiana has very good depth, especially among its bigs, which could be huge given this year's schedule and which gives them a definite chance to vault thinner teams like Boston and New York into the top four in the East.

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Here are The Painted Area's 2011-12 NBA season predictions:

EAST
1. Chicago
2. Miami
3. Indiana
4. New York
5. Boston
6. Orlando
7. Milwaukee
8. Philadelphia

-First Round: Bulls over Sixers, Heat over Bucks, Pacers over Magic, Knicks over Celtics
-Conf. Semis: Bulls over Knicks, Heat over Pacers
-Conf. Finals: Heat over Bulls

WEST
1. Oklahoma City
2. Denver
3. San Antonio
4. L.A. Clippers
5. Dallas
6. Memphis
7. L.A. Lakers
8. Portland

-First Round: Thunder over Blazers, Nuggets over Lakers, Grizzlies over Spurs, Mavs over Clippers
-Conf. Semis: Thunder over Mavs, Nuggets over Grizzlies
-Conf. Finals: Thunder over Nuggets

-NBA Finals: Thunder over Heat

Award predictions:
MVP: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
As has been proven over and over again, narrative plays a critical role in determining the NBA MVP. Given that we expect Oklahoma City to run away with the West, we think Durant is perfectly positioned to be the odds-on favorite for the award.

Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland
Not only do we think that Irving is the best player in this rookie class, but we also think that he's ready to contribute right away, and that he'll also get plenty of playing time to rack up some good numbers. Stir it all together, and that's your Rookie of the Year.

OK, with the late release of the season win over/unders, we're racing to get our annual O/U picks before season tip-off. Hope to have something shortly. Thanks for reading, as always, and enjoy the season.

CP3 Trade Fiasco Follow-up: Regardless of Motivation, Stern is Wrong

2011-12-14T08:22:00.000-08:00

After my initial reaction to the Chris Paul trade situation immediately following David Stern's veto of the Lakers-Rockets-Hornets deal last Thursday night, some discussions with various TrueHoop Network colleagues have caused me to want to refine and focus my position on the continuing events after my scattershot initial thoughts.

Specifically, I want focus on Stern's actions, and set aside the idea that lingering large-market/small-market tensions from the lockout may be influencing his actions, as that is speculation on his motivations, something I cannot know, regardless of how many respected NBA media members across the board are suggesting that this may be an underlying factor.

Regardless of his motivations, Stern is in the wrong. It is not right for him (or other league executives, such as Joel Litvin or Stu Jackson, as his proxies) to be as deeply involved in the trade details as he has been, regardless of how good the eventual trade turns out to be for the Hornets, as I think there's a decent chance that the eventual deal will be more favorable to the Hornets from a basketball persepctive in the long-term.

First, I go back again to the original statement that Stern made after the league took over the team, saying "while this process has been going on, there have been two significant transactions. And our response to both of them was you guys are management, you understand your budget and your instructions, just go ahead, because we've got Jac Sperling, Hugh Weber here, and if they recommend it, then we're going to be approving it."

That is the way this process should work, the way it has to work for the sake of the integrity of the league. Just because Stern's statement may not have reflected the league's true policy toward the Hornets, or even if we may have suspected that this was a crock and Stern would get involved in operations anyway, does not justify his actions. He is now either contradicting his statement of policy, which has essentially been the league's consistent rhetoric regarding the Hornets situation throughout, or proving it to be an outright lie.

The policy as spelled out by Stern in the initial conference call is how it should be. The league lays out general parameters for how the Hornets should operate, team chairman Jac Sperling is the ultimate decision-maker within those parameters, and the league approves those decisions unless there is something patently egregious. Sperling has been established as the person who holds the team's seat on the NBA Board of Governors - for the purposes of operations, he is the owner. And it has to be that way for the integrity of the league. Unless there's something done that's beyond the pale, the league should not be stepping in, and there's no reasonable cause to overturn the person they've established as the team's owner on the Paul trade talks.

The NBA's role in approving trades is another concept which has gotten skewed in this whole saga. The league's role in "approving" trades is to judge submitted trades on whether they are legal by league rules, and to ensure that nothing grossly egregious is being done. The league is doing something entirely different when they are "approving" the Paul trade proposals. They are essentially getting involved before the submission process in this case. There's a 0% chance that the original Lakers-Hornets-Rockets trade would not have been approved under standard operating procedure. This is an entirely different definition of the term "approval".

Hornets GM Dell Demps has been working within his budget and parameters. If the NBA had wanted to set up different parameters for dealing with Chris Paul, it should have established those parameters in advance, and it certainly had ample time to do so, as this was not a surprise situation that CP3 might need to be traded. Even just since the lockout ended, there have been a million Paul trade rumors for the entire world of NBA fans to see. It's mind-boggling that the league and the team's management in New Orleans are on such wildly different pages regarding the question of Chris Paul, as if the topic was never considered.

There's been some argument that the NBA has the right to take such invasive action because they are preparing the Hornets for sale. First, I don't think that that excuses the way they've affected the integrity of the league. Second, they had plenty of time and opportunity to establish broad parameters for the Hornets which tied with their sale goals. Third, the sad thing is that I really don't think that any result of the Paul process will have a material impact of the team's sale price.

The crazy thing is that the NBA has actually done an amazing job in New Orleans from a business perspective, overhauling the team's financial outlook in a way that is nothing short of miraculous, and that I thought was going to be impossible to achieve. That is the heavy lifting in terms of getting the Hornets ready for sale.

I don't think that any player-personnel moves from here will have anything more than a marginal impact. There are three general outcomes for the Hornets, none of them great:

1. Paul remains on the team for a lame-duck season before walking via free agency.
2. Paul is traded for a package of veterans (a la the Rockets-Lakers proposal) which keeps them roughly competitive in the short-term, but leaves them with onerous commitments in the long-term.
3. Paul is traded for a package of younger players/expiring assets (a la the Clippers proposal) which is more of a tear-down approach that leaves them less competitive in the short-term but better prepared for the future.

Frankly, in terms of which approach maximizes the team's sale price, I've seen reasonable arguments for each of these three. It's ultimately going to suck for any of three, as the team's going to lose Chris Paul. For a franchise that's struggled so much to establish its fan base, I think that rallying around a Scola-Martin-Odom team that could have scrapped its way into the playoffs might have been best, to retain that fan support in the short term, even if it required some potentially onerous long-term commitments. But again, I think one could make a plausible case for any of three scenarios, I don't think there's any one magical path, which is part of the reason I think it's been crazy that the league's been involved. To what end?

Now, the skewing of the "approval" process is what's having repercussions not only in making it more challenging for the Hornets to find a trading partner, but also in creating paralysis and chaos to franchises across the league.

And again, why? What is the point of all this? The Hornets are being disallowed from making a reasonable trade for questionable, marginal value for the sale price.

Whether David Stern was right or wrong regarding on the particular merits of the trade, or the team is worth marginally more or less, or his intentions were sinister or not, is somewhat irrelevant. The act of stepping in on a reasonable transaction impacts the integrity of the league, and it was thoroughly inappropriate for him to do so.

I stand by my original belief that this is shockingly dumb, poorly thought-out, a unnecessary disaster, and the possibly the worst decision of David Stern's commissioner, a sign that it's time for his tenure to end sooner rather than later.

Musings on the Chris Paul Trade Fiasco

2011-12-09T01:15:00.000-08:00

December 6, 2010
"Q. Can you explain when trades are made, or if a free agent wants to be signed, what is the process that Dell [Demps] has to go through, do you say yeah, we'll do that trade or we won't do that trade?

DAVID STERN: Actually, the league generally approves all trades, number one. And number two, as far as we're concerned there have been while this process has been going on, there have been two significant transactions. And our response to both of them was you guys are management, you understand your budget and your instructions, just go ahead, because we've got Jac Sperling, Hugh Weber here, and if they recommend it, then we're going to be approving it."
(Thanks to Hornets Report for the transcript)

December 8, 2011
367 days later, we experienced one of the most surreal days in NBA history, as the stunning news that the Lakers had acquired Chris Paul without giving up Andrew Bynum (thus suddenly making the Paul-Howard dream seem viable) was trumped by the truly shocking decision by the NBA, as the owner of the New Orleans Hornets, to block the trade, in what I think might be the worst thing David Stern has done in his nearly 28 years as NBA commissioner.

I was certainly wasn't surprised that Stern did something so heavy-handed, but I was truly shocked that he did something so, well, dumb. I am used to the commissioner's tyranny, but his surpassing intellect has never been in question. (I thought Jan Hubbard's portrait of Stern from October was spot on.) Yet this decision made so little sense on so many levels, and seemed so poorly thought-out and short-sighted, without any sense of the repercussions and precedents which seemed patently obvious.

Stern *has* to understand this; he's too smart not to. One is left to conclude that he's completely lost control of his owners. The lockout often seemed to pit small-market owners vs. large-market owners as much as owners vs. players. It appeared at the end of the lockout that the intra-owner squabbles were not sufficiently healed, a perception only strengthened by today's actions, which seems driven by small-market owners, as evidenced by Dan Gilbert's now-annual uninformed, unhinged screed. I believe that, for the bulk of his career, David Stern ran the owners, but it couldn't be more clear that he works for them now. It is probably time for a change at the top.

Again, I'm just stunned by how much nonsense there is surrounding today's actions. Let me try to itemize my thoughts:

1. The Competitive Balance Canard
I have fully supported the idea that increased revenue sharing was needed in the NBA, but this was strictly from the perspective of allowing teams to compete from a business perspective. I know I'm not the first to say this, but the whole idea that payroll is related to competitive balance is debunked by pretty straightforward analysis.

The effect of the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) on competitive analysis will likely be minimal, especially so if players are willing to leave money on the table as free agents. For the owners and the league to have expected more competitive balance from this deal is seriously misguided. In fact, elements like a more punitive luxury tax may serve to create less competitive balance, as teams like Utah will likely never go into the luxury tax, as they did a few years ago when they had a contending team. It's a fair question to ask if the more punitive luxury tax will make it tougher for small-market Oklahoma City to keep its burgeoning juggernaut together.

If the owners had truly wanted competitive balance, they should have sought a radical overhaul in which the max salary was eradicated, thus making it harder to fit multiple superstars on the same team. Stop saying this had anything to do with competitive balance. The Lakers were acting perfectly fairly under the system in place, a system which is not designed to create competitive balance, as much as the owners want to believe it does.

2. If Owners Wanted System Issues, Why Didn't They Negotiate Harder For System Issues?
I was surprised that the lockout ultimately wrapped up as soon as it did, mainly because I thought the owners were going to press harder on the so-called "system issues". Truth is that the owners did exact some meaningful changes, such as creating greater monetary incentives for free agents to sign with their own teams.

But, as the lockout wrapped up, the rhetoric from the owners side was that the lockout was about competitive balance more than money. Yes, likely some elements of B.S. in there, I know, but let's take it at face value. If that were truly the case, why did the owners give ground on so many system issues at the end, rather than give back on some of the huge concessions they got from players on basketball-related income (BRI) in exchange for more favorable system issues?

By the end, money should not have been a problem for the owners. They absolutely crushed the players on BRI, just crushed them, and there's reportedly an increase of more than $100 million a year coming from the Lakers new local TV deal alone, not to mention better local-TV deals for teams like the Celtics and the Rockets, with an increase in national TV revenues on the horizon in a few years, given the trajectory of the league. With smart revenue sharing, there was more than enough money moving into the owners' hands to allow them to concede BRI for system issues at the end if they'd wanted. The owners essentially dictated the terms of this lockout, and do not now have grounds to complain about the system they dictated, which essentially seems like what happened today.

3. Superteams Are Great For The League
When one steps back, it's really just surreal to think that The Decision was a key event which incited the owners, and continues to do so today. A free agent, after playing out his contract, opted to leave money on the table to join another franchise, in a mid-major market, so that he could maximize what he perceived to be his best chance to win a championship.

As a result, this decision created MASSIVE INTEREST IN THE LEAGUE, with the most popular season in years, with captivating storylines all the way from The Decision through the end of The Finals almost a year later. And this was apparently a big problem.

You may not want to hear it or acknowledge it, but the fact is that a Lakers superteam of Paul/Bryant/Howard (which is where I believe we were headed) would be great for the NBA. It would capture the conversation and interest of the casual fan, and more than anything, it would finally bring the rhapsodized, fetishized era of the NBA '80s back to life.

The most treasured era of the league is the mighty '80s, when the loaded Celtics and Lakers (and Sixers and Pistons, to a degree) reigned over a top-heavy league with little overall competitive balance. A Lakers superteam to counter the Heatles, with an emerging superteam in (tiny-market) Oklahoma City, with another strong contender in Chicago. Loaded teams for the Lakers, Heat, Thunder and Bulls? Gotta tell you, as a neutral observer, it sounds like a whole lot of fun to watch, and I'm sure it would be crazily popular for the league. And truth be told, all of those franchises have done it fairly, with some combination of strong management and luck.

It's just another thing that I thought was crazy today. When I first heard about the trade, I thought, wow, this is another bogus conspiracy theory which is going to stick around with David Stern - the fact that an NBA-owned team was going to deliver CP3 to the Lakers. When, in reality, it was all logical to me - an imminent free agent was using the leverage he had to get somewhere he wanted to be, and the Hornets were getting the best deal they could under the circumstances.

By luck, and system, the league was going to benefit, overall. Instead, I do believe that blocking the trade is a matter of the NBA fixing the league to a certain indirect degree, as there is no reasonable cause to block this reasonable trade, though of course it's an unwitting fixing, as no one in their right mind would go out of their way to fix the league AGAINST a Lakers superteam. But that's what the NBA has done - they've gone out of their way to make a heavy-handed, unwarranted, illogical, unfair decision that could not be in more opposition to the league's best interests. Instead of the world talking about a potential Lakers superteam, they're talking about the blocking of the trade.

4. Screwing Over the Small-Market Hornets
Continuing the nonsense, if there's one team that got screwed over today, of course it's the team the NBA owns, the New Orleans Hornets, in one of the league's smallest markets. Now they apparently can't trade Chris Paul, and are presumably stuck with him for a lame-duck season, in which the story of the blocked trade will follow him and the franchise around all year, at the end of which, New Orleans will end up with no compensation. This helps increase the value and facilitate the sale of the Hornets how?

5. Chris Paul of All Players - Really?
Chris Paul is the guy that you're going to try to turn into the villain for leaving a small-market team as a free agent - really? Chris Paul has never experienced anything close to good ownership in his entire career, with the clownish George Shinn followed by the unprecedented league takeover. All along, Paul's stood by the franchise, to Oklahoma City and back post-Katrina, committed to the community and to helping rebuild New Orleans. If the NBA wants to make an example of a free agent, this is not the guy to do it with.

Paul's never had a chance in his NBA career because of his team's ownership situation, yet has not wavered in his commitment to the city of New Orleans. He's done nothing wrong, and has every right to try to get to a team he wants to play for.

But now, Paul has been blocked, and he and the league are paralyzed and who knows what comes next. I believe that the NBA has essentially restricted Paul's freedom of movement (even if indirectly or implicitly) by refusing to trade him for a fair return, possibly ultimately limiting his options in where he can end up. If the players wanted to strike tomorrow, until the trade was restored, I would understand where there were coming from. They have the right to free agency, and that includes the right to employ leverage as an imminent free agent.

With a better owner, whether it's Gary Chouest in New Orleans or Larry Ellison in San Jose, Paul might well be a happy Hornet. Paul is working within the system which has been collectively bargained, not undermining it.

UPDATE: I originally wrote this post late last night. Some good back-and-forth with various TrueHoop Network colleagues has helped me crystallize my thinking further, and I'd refine my concluding opinion like so:

I believe that the Chris Paul trade was vetoed for one reason: because it was to the Los Angeles Lakers. As fun as it may be to hate the Lakers, that's not sufficient reason to veto the trade. The Lakers were operating fairly within the system, and Paul was as well, in using his leverage as an impending free agent to help direct where he wanted to go. If the owners wanted to reduce the leverage of players in Paul's situation, this should have been addressed in system changes within the new CBA.

I believe the owners and the league were some combination of too oblivious, ineffectual, divided and dumb to realize a revised system which actually achieved competitive balance, and are now trying to unilaterally impose competitive balance which they couldn't achieve through system changes. This is serving to indirectly restrict Paul's freedom of movement and to effectively manipulate the league.

Musings on the NBA Draft Prospects from the Kentucky-North Carolina Game

2011-12-05T00:51:00.001-08:00

What a game of college basketball on Saturday at Rupp Arena, as Kentucky edged North Carolina 73-72. And what a concentration of prospects on one floor with six of the Top 13, and 10 of the Top 40 on Chad Ford's Big Board, and a full eight players who Jonathan Givony projects as Top 11 picks in his Mock NBA Drafts for 2012 and 2013.

Of course, that kind of talent concentration created a unique opportunity to evaluate these prospects in matchups against other elite talents. As such, I wanted to take a moment to play the role of dilettante draft evaluator and offer my observations on the many Wildcat and Tar Heel prospects, coming out of Saturday's classic in Lexington.

In general, my feeling about the potential 2012 draft class is this: I think there is a deep pool of about ten players who could potentially be Top 50 or so guys in the NBA, but I don't know if there are any players who are Top 10 guys. I question how high the ceilings are for even the top guys in the draft, several of whom played prominent roles in the Kentucky-North Carolina game.

Obviously, it's still very early, as many of these guys are freshmen who've played but a handful of college games. I suspect a lot will change between now and March, but here are some early-season thoughts on prospects from the big game at Rupp:

ANTHONY DAVIS
Anthony Davis was the ultimate headliner of the game, as his wingspan proved to be just a fraction more impossible than John Henson's on an impressive game-sealing blocked shot in the final seconds. Even after a game in which he scored just seven points (3-6 FG, 1-1 FT), Davis still seems to be entrenched as the consensus choice as the no. 1 overall pick for 2012.

I have no doubts that Davis is an elite defensive prospect, but when I read quotes like this, from a scout in a recent Chad Ford blog post, I have to ask if Davis is being overvalued:

"Davis is the only person in this draft who I'm sure can change a franchise.... Davis is the only sure thing to me. He has such a unique game. He'll be a great pro."Again, I have no questions about Davis' D, not when he's averaging a somewhat-bananas 4.5 blocks in 27.5 minutes per game, plus 1.4 steals and solid boardwork, to boot. But I'm still trying to discern for myself if he is, to use a shorthand, closer to KG or Marcus Camby as a prospect; is he a true franchise-changer - an All-NBA 1st or 2nd teamer - or more of a borderline All-Star type?

My concerns can be summed up like so: I never see him create offense in the halfcourt. Against Kansas, Davis had six field goals, five of which were dunk finishes. Against St. John's, Davis had six field goals, comprised of four assisted dunks, one assisted layup, and one tip-in. Against North Carolina, Davis' three FGs consisted of one nice post move, one spectacular finish of an alley-oop, and one assisted lay-in.

The main reason that I suspect Davis may be overvalued is actually narrative-based, relating to his point-guard past. Davis famously experienced a seven-inch growth spurt in one year which transformed him from a marginal Division I prospect into the consensus no. 1 pick he is today. He is, as the lore now goes, a big man with point-guard skills, because he spent most of his career as a young guard.

The problem I have with that is this: I have yet to see this narrative translate into actual playmaking ability on the floor. Davis is averaging 1.1 assists per game, as has one assist total in 99 minutes in Kentucky's three games against decent teams (Kansas, St. John's, North Carolina) so far. He also had just 2 assists in 73 minutes in the three main high-school postseason all-star games last year (McDonald's All-American, Nike Hoop Summit, Jordan Brand Classic), in which he played very well overall, averaging 20 and 9 plus three blocks.

Obviously, it's still very early, and Davis is still growing into his new body. He has plenty of good tools - he's smart, has really good hands, shooting form that's good enough to suggest he can eventually knock down outside shots, and already has some decent post moves down low.

But as of now, I have questions about whether Davis is a guy who can create a bucket for you in the halfcourt of an NBA game, and I really wonder if he's a playmaker at all, or if that's just a function of narrative that's actually a crock.

Davis certainly doesn't look like an All-NBA 1st or 2nd teamer to me based on what I've seen so far. He looks more like a Camby than a Garnett. Don't get me wrong, Marcus Camby is a guy who's had a long, productive career, winning a Defensive Player of the Year award, and probably deserving to make a couple All-Star games even though he never has, but I'd guess that "lower-tier/borderline All-Star" is more than teams and fans expect to get out of a no. 1 overall pick, and out of Davis.

HARRISON BARNES
Speaking of players I think are overvalued, let's move on to Harrison Barnes.... Barnes seems like a great kid, and I really want to believe in him, but I just haven't seen signs that Barnes will be a truly elite NBA player in more than a season at North Carolina, and felt that way again after watching his matchup against Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

This summer, Adrian Wojnarowski tweeted this: "An NBA scout gushing over Harrison Barnes battling KDurant in Chicago last night. 'Top pick in the next draft -- by far.'" It makes me wonder what I'm missing, because I don't see Barnes as anywhere near a guy who projects to Durant's level.

To me, Barnes' main strength is knocking down outside shots - and a willingness to do so in pressure situations - but I have major concerns about the fact that he doesn't seem to do much else well. I rarely see him get to the rim (Barnes shoots just 48% on two-point shots), he is a middling rebounder, and a downright poor passer.

Let me say that again, because it's a facet of Barnes' game which I don't think is discussed enough: he is a terrible passer. Awful. He has six assists in eight games so far this season, and his A/TO rato has dropped from a subpar 1.4/1.9 to a dreadful 0.8/2.5 to date this year. But beyond the numbers, I offer my observations that Barnes doesn't seem to see the floor well and rarely seems to make productive passes, so-called hockey assists or passes which put the Tar Heels in a better position to score.

All of this was on display vs. Kentucky. Barnes scored 14 points in 24 minutes, powered by 4-5 shooting on threes. But he made just 1-7 on twos, and had just two rebounds, zero assists and zero FTA, and never made it to the rim once all day. To be fair, Barnes did have a turnaround jumper move in the low post which looked pretty smooth and promising, and got him good looks vs. Kidd-Gilchrist, and the ball just bounced out on him a couple times.

I've seen the Joe Johnson comparison for Barnes a few times, which seems like a reasonable ceiling for Barnes, though I'd note that Joe has averaged 4.5 assists for his NBA career, with a high of 6.5. Of course, NBA assists are handed out more freely, and it's worth nothing that Johnson's career A/TO ratio in two years at Arkansas was just 2.4/2.5, so it can be improved, but even those pedestrian assist numbers are well ahead of Barnes. But again, I see Johnson - a lower-tier All-Star - as Barnes' ceiling. I don't see him as an All-NBA 1st/2nd teamer, and I don't think he should be going no. 2 in the draft.

MICHAEL KIDD-GILCHRIST
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist seems like the opposite of Barnes in some ways. He's a guy whose floor game is outstanding, but whose major weakness is that he is not a consistent scorer or shooter. Kidd-Gilchrist was the leading scorer (17) and rebounder (11) in Saturday's game, and I thought he was the key player for Kentucky in powering a second-half run after gutting his way through a separated shoulder.

I thought that Kidd-Gilchrist gave Barnes fits with his strength and athleticism. I think that he's superior to Barnes as a defender, a driver, a rebounder and a passer, though it's worth noting that MKG's early numbers at Kentucky don't back up my observations (which include watching Kidd-Gilchrist multiple times in high school). Kidd-Gilchrist averages just 4.4 FTA and makes just 51% of his twos so far, and his A/TO is just 1.5/2.6, though he does average 7.1 rebounds in 29 minutes (as opposed to 5.6 in 29 minutes for Barnes career).

Still, I'd point to plays like the gorgeous alley-oop he threw to Davis to spark Kentucky as an example of Kidd-Gilchrist's court vision. And with his athleticism, size (he's listed at 6-7/232), strength and toughness, I think that Kidd-Gilchrist will be an elite wing defender in the NBA. It's a little weird, most young players seem behind the curve on defense, but like Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist seems far more advanced on defense than offense (including filling the defensive stat sheet with more than a block and a steal per game).

But how just high should a guy like Kidd-Gilchrist go in the draft? It certainly gives one pause when he puts up a stink bomb like his 5-points-on-1-of-7-FG job vs. St. John's. Again, it's tough for me to project Kidd-Gilchrist as an elite NBA player if he can't score consistently. But man, I just love the way the kid plays the game and his versatility on both ends - there's a Pippenesque feel to his game, but of course, he's a long way from being able to produce offense like Scottie. I liked Kidd-Gilchrist better than Barnes coming into Saturday's game, and still feel the same way now.

JOHN HENSON and TERRENCE JONES
While guys like Davis and Barnes were the big headliners coming into Saturday's game, it was two players with freakish wingspans, John Henson and Terrence Jones, who were probably the most impressive players in the first half.

Henson may have helped his draft stock as much as anyone. The potential to be an elite defender has always been there (he's averaging about 10 boards and more than three blocks, like last year), but his expanded offensive repertoire was quite impressive on the big stage in Lexington. Henson looked comfortable knocking down midrange jumpers and showed some post moves including a lefty hook. All in all, he just looked more comfortable and fluid on offense. Still, he only shot 4-11, and needs to play well offensively on a consistent basis, but if he can, I can finally see why Henson may deserve a Top 5 pick (given how strong his defensive potential is).

Jones was sensational in the first half, showcasing the versatile inside-out game he has at his best en route to scoring 14 points. But he didn't necessarily give his draft stock a boost because his performance only raised the same old questions about why he doesn't play that way more consistently. Sure enough, Jones disappeared in the second half, going without a point on 0-3 FG, all of them three-pointers, which is not a strength of his game. It's hard to think Jones warrants more than a late-lottery pick based on his inconsistency.

MARQUIS TEAGUE and KENDALL MARSHALL
Thanks to Chad Ford, who was kind enough to re-tweet my moment of inspiration when I tweeted during the game that "Teague's body + Marshall's head might = CP3. Teague's head + Marshall's body might not even be a D-I player." And really, that's the crux of what really makes it hard where to place these guys on a draft board.

Marquis Teague was atrocious in the early-going, making about seven terrible decisions before the first TV timeout, but he settled down a bit, and somehow only had one turnover on the day. Still, his shot selection was horrendous (he shot just 3-11 on the day, 0-4 on 3s) and seems to have a long, long way to go as a decision-maker.

Kendall Marshall, on the other hand, had about four passes which displayed world-class court vision (which seems to be average for him), including a thoroughly gorgeous cross-court in the final minute to set up Reggie Bullock for three to close Kentucky's lead to 73-72. It was also nice to see Marshall knock down a couple threes, but shooting percentages remain very low, and questions about his athleticism has been raised anew after he's been torched on defense early in the season.

I tweeted earlier this season that I'd take Marshall over more-athletic guys like Teague or Myck Kabongo in a heartbeat, but I'm wondering if that's wishful thinking. I absolutely love watching Marshall, but he does have some glaring deficiencies, including physical ones, whereas point guards can learn how to cut down turnovers. I'm not sure that he'll ever be an NBA starter, but for now, I'm keeping him above Teague as a late first-rounder on my mythical draft board because I've never been impressed by Teague in multiple viewings in college or high school.

TYLER ZELLER
Tyler Zeller somehow ended up with pretty decent numbers on Saturday (14 points on 4-9/6-6, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, but 4 TOs) even though he seemed to be in duress on the low block all day long.

I was surprised that Kentucky played Zeller with such aggressive NBA-style double teams in the low post, given that it opened up space for Carolina on the perimeter - it seemed like Kentucky's no. 1 defensive objective was to stop Zeller.

Zeller seemed to struggle against Kentucky's tough D, having trouble making his moves fast enough to beat the double, or having enough strength to operate against or pass out of the doubles effectively. All told, it was a reminder that Zeller is what he is - a player who does not have a terribly high ceiling, but who is suitably reliable and fundamentally-sound to potentially develop into a rotation player. Somewhere in the first round after the lottery seems about right for him.

JAMES MCADOO and P.J. HAIRSTON
I feel like I'm already eating crow for suggesting that I thought James McAdoo was the best prospect in the class in my review at the end of last season. McAdoo clearly wasn't ready for the big stage of Saturday's game. Givony currently has McAdoo at no. 2 in the 2013 Draft, and indeed, it's probably a good idea for McAdoo to spend another year at Carolina in a more primary role.

Don't get me wrong, there were some glimpses from McAdoo on Saturday, with some impressive rebounds and a good passing sense in the post, but his shooting looked absolutely horrendous on a couple bad misfires. The two-hand shooting style looked atrocious, but McAdoo did knock down 3-4 threes in the McDonald's/Jordan Brand game, so he can hit the shots. I'm still high on McAdoo in the long-term, but he certainly doesn't look like a lottery pick with the way he's playing now.

Try not to be scared, I mean this in the best way, but I think P.J. Hairston has some J.R. Smith in his game, with a combination of deep shooting off a quick release and athleticism (even if he's not as explosive as J.R.). Hairston scored 11 points in 14 minutes on 4 shots, firing in 3-4 threes without hesitation off his quick release. Givony has Hairston going no. 10 in 2013. As with McAdoo, it probably makes sense for Hairston to come back in a more prominent role next year, and those two will certainly be major prospects to watch if they do so.

Whew, we've already written about *10* guys who have great shots to go in the first round, and there are still more guys worth talking about, like Doron Lamb, Reggie Bullock, Dexter Strickland and Darius Miller. 14 guys or more from this one college game could end up playing the league. Just crazy.

What an amazing collection of prospects, and what a fun game to watch. Let's hope we get a rematch in New Orleans at the Final Four.

EuroLeague First Round Week 4 Recap: CSKA-PAO, Nancy-Caja, Partizan-Real

2011-11-16T03:23:00.000-08:00

CSKA-Panathinaikos:

The premier matchup of Week 4 went down to the wire with CSKA stealing a road win in OT, 78-76. Game was close, but not well-played. Rather sloppy affair with ill-advised shots and a combined 37 turnovers. PAO really hurt themselves down the stretch with plenty of bad decisions with the ball.

Wasn't Andrei Kirilenko best game on the offensive end--five TOs and a few failed finishes. But he continued to fill out the stat sheet in other ways--10 rebs, 5 blks (AK currently leads EL in rpg & bpg). Kirilenko had a big offensive rebound late and made a crucial on-ball block in OT.

As usual, AK and his forward counterpart, Vik Khryapa, combined to form a devastating help defensive tandem. Both guys roamed around the floor to snuff out or alter shots. Were a big reason PAO only shot 39.5% on 2PA. Khryapa had another strong all-around performance with 11 pts, 4 assts & 3 blks.

Nenad Krstic (13 pts/11 rebs) was solid again drawing fouls and getting on the offensive glass. Alexey Shved (10 pts) came through with some big plays late in the 4th to allow CSKA to tie the game. Shved did a nice job winding his way to the rim.

Euroleague vet Rimas Siskauskas (14 pts) started the game strong and capped off the game with a clutch 3pt. with a minute left in OT.

Dimis Diamantidis had a rather quiet game--six pts, four assts, three stls--and limited to 20 mins. before fouling out. Nick Calahtes continued his strong '11-'12 EL season with 11 pts, 6 rebs & 3 assts. Thought Calathes did a nice job getting into the lane (scored on floaters a few times) thanks to some nifty ball-handling (nice behind-the-back move).

Nancy-Caja Laboral:

Nancy pulled off a big upset by knocking off previously unbeaten Caja, 90-85, in Group A. Caja Laboral failed to close off the middle of the floor, often leaving wide range for Nancy to move through the painted area. Caja also had a hard time staying with the quicker perimeter players of Nancy. Caja let Nancy make 63% of their 2PA, 44% on 3PA. Caja was able to stick around because they pounded the offensive glass--20 off. rebs. to 24 def. rebs, for Nancy.

Next to Andrei Kirilenko, Nic Batum has been the best all-around player during the first four weeks. Nic paced Nancy with 21 pts, 9 rebs and 4 assts. Nancy loves to set up Batum off baseline screens, usually setting him up on the left block. Did a nice job scoring a few times or drawing fouls in the post.

Nicky Batts has also been handling the ball quite a bit for Nancy and has been sharp with his passes--Batum made a superb lob pass to Akin Akingbala. Batum is currently second in ppg (20.5), second in apg (6.5) and fifth in rpg (7.3). But is first in TOpg (5.0).

Batum got key support from former Clemson standout big, Akin Akingbala, who shredded the porous interior defense of Caja with 26 pts on 11-of-16. Akin finished a bunch of times on cuts, rolls or transition, but he also added a few nice post scores to the mix (faced-up then drove middle). Finished with a baby hook multiple times. Akingbala has been one of top players through four games--he's fifth in ppg (20), third in rpg (7.7 rpg) and is shooting 68%.

Caja's Mirza Teletovic (24 pts, 13 rbs, 3 assts) had been primarily seeing most of his touches in the post in the first three game, but he did damage facing up vs. Nancy. Mirza hit five 3PA either spotting up or drilling with a defender in his face in isolation. Mirza has scored at least 20 points in all four EL games and leads the EL in ppg at 22.3. Encouraging to see him improving his rebounding this year--rebounding well in ACB play.

Kevin Seraphin had another impressive game with 12 pts on 6-of-10. Scored mostly off cuts or rolls, but also threw in a terrific post move where he finished with a powerful slam off a quick spin move. Also threw down a dunk off a nice drop-step on a roll as well.

Fernando San Emeterio started the El season a little slow but he had his second strong showing in a row with 19 pts, 7 rebs, 6 assts, 8-of-12 shooting and 3-for-5 on 3PA.

Partizan-Real Madrid:

Hard to call this game an upset as Partizan was playing in front of their raucous home crowd, but they definitely prevailed over a much deeper and talented Real club, 80-79. Sergio Llull's last-second chuck from the corner rimmed-off to seal the one-point victory for Partizan. Real could not keep Partizan off the FT line--28/32 on FTs to 14/17 for Real.

Partizan's frontcourt tandem of Nikola Pekovic and Milan Macvan were strong once again. Pek made a killing on the right block going over his left shoulder. Either would score with a hook or carve out deep position to score on lay-ins. Deep position got him some scores on the left block as well, including a plus-one vs. Serge Ibaka. Also added a nice put-back dunk in transition. Pek finished with 20 pts on 8-of-14, plus 7 drawn fouls--currently averaging 18 ppg in 25 mins/game. Though, his defensive rebounding continues to be subpar.

Recent Cavs draftee Macvan was great again with 16pts/12 rebs and made heady plays on both ends of the court as usual--couple crucial off. rebounds in the 4th. Macvan has been one of the top players in the EL so far--15 ppg, 7.8 rpg (2nd best), 70% shooting. All of Acie Law's (14 points, 5 assts, 3 stls) came on lay-ups either in transitions or on a couple blow-bys in the half-court.

Like in Week 3, Rudy Fernandez (13 pts) made some dubious plays (careless passes off the dribble) but tempered those poor decisions by making some tough shots, including a step-back 3pt. to give Real a two-point lead with a minute left. Rudy's biggest mistake was when he fouled Acie Law in the backcourt with the score tied at 78 under 24 secs left. Though, not sure if the coach requested that foul as this is not uncommon in Europe. Rudy also might have been frustrated he did not get the foul call on a drive attempt on the previous play (Pekovic looked like he clobbered Rudy).

Thought Sergio Llull had one of his better games this year--13 pts, 5 assts, 3 stls-- and did a good job aggressively taking the ball to the rim either in transition or in half-court. Though, Llull did miss the second of two FTs that would have tied the game at 80 with five secs left.

Serge Ibaka did not have much impact as he was limited to 13 minutes because of four fouls; had trouble handling Pekovic. For the third game in a row, sharpshooter Jaycee Carroll led Real in scoring (21 pts on 8-of-12), but he did more than his usual catch-n-shoot vs. Partizan. He mixed in some drives to rim and a couple of floaters to go along with his usual spot or off screen jumpers. Carroll leads Real in scoring at 18.5 ppg in only 21 mins/game.

Bulls draftee Nikola Mirotic (9 pts, 4 rebs) was so-so once again and mishandled the ball a few times. Ante Tomic (Jazz own rights) was a non-factor once again.

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Games of the Week:

Fenerbahce Ulker vs. Bennet Cantu (Wed.): Fenerbahce is definitely the more talented team on paper but the 3-1 Cantu team has been playing good ball. Cantu has gotten good play from their frontcourt rotation (G. Shermadini, M. Leunen, D. Marconato). Ulker hope to get another strong outing from Bojan Bogdanovic after a breakout performance in the last game.

Real Madrid vs. Efes (Thurs.): No off weeks in Group C as two very talented teams take the floor in Madrid. Both teams come into the game 2-2. Plenty of players with NBA ties either current (Rudy Fernandez, Serge Ibaka, Ersan Ilyasova) former (Tarence Kinsey, Sasha Vujacic, Sergio Rodriguez) or possible future (Sergio Llull, Nikola Mirotic, Ante Tomic). Real could really use a win at home after two close losses in a row.

Armani Milano vs. Partizan (Thurs.): Another matchup of 2-2 teams in Group C. Partizan is coming off a great win over Real and will try to knock off Milano on the road. Interesting matchup between Nikola Pekovic and Milano's Giannis Bourousis, two of the better centers in Europe. Milano definitely has the edge on the wings with Danilo Gallinari and Malik Hairston.

Euroleague First Round Week 3 Recap: Maccabi-Real; Caja-Olympiacos

2011-11-09T03:35:00.000-08:00

In this recap post we'll focus on the best games of Week 3, Maccabi vs. Real Madrid and Caja Laboral vs. Olympiacos.
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In the premier matchup of Week 3, Maccabi handed Real their first loss of the Euroleague season in Tel Aviv, 88-82. This game was filled with players with ties to the NBA. Jordan Farmar (Maccabi) and Rudy Fernandez (Real) were the featured performers while Serge Ibaka also suited up for Real. Players with their rights held by NBA teams included Lior Eliyahu (Rockets) and Sofo Schortsantis (Clips) for Maccabi, and Ante Tomic (Jazz), Sergio Llull (Rockets) and Nikola Mirotic (Bulls) for Real.

Jordan Farmar used his athletic advantage to great effect vs. Real. Was able to blow by his defender multiple times to finish at the rim. Did a nice job of adjusting his shot at the basket. Farmar has done a good job finishing near the rim this season.

Besides Farmar's solid EL play, he has fared well in Maccabi's Adriatic League games. In four games, he has put up 12.5 ppg, 5.3 apg, 2.8 TOpg and 77% on FGA (38% 3PA). Isolation action has been a big part of Farmar's offensive arsenal early in this season.

Thought Sofo Schortsanitis had a big positive impact on this game, scoring around the rim (16 pts in 21 mins) or drawing fouls at will (drew eight). His nimble footwork was on display as he pulled off a few sweet moves in the post. Gave Real major problems on the block. Was the main reason Ante Tomic picked up three fouls in eight minutes. Converted two buckets in transition where he made nice catch & finished on the move, including a nifty spin move. Sofo set up two short hook shots by drop-stepping one way, then reversing direction. Big Sofo even dove on the floor a few times. Great effort overall.

Most of David Blu's 16 pts came on jumpers, either behind the arc or around the 17-18 foot range. Former Virginia Cav Devin Smith banged home some shots of his own for 15 pts. Maccabi's defense did a nice job challenging shots and forced Real deep into the shot clock multiple times (held Real to 40% overall).

Rudy Fernandez had a subpar performance as he chucked up some questionable shots, as he's wont to do sometimes. Though he had to toss up some looks because Maccabi forced Real late in the shot clock. Rudy still managed 13 pts and has played pretty well so far in the EL and Spain.

When Rudy last played in the ACB in 2008, he was one of the best in the league and so far, he has regained his standout status: 16.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.2 spg, 1.7 apg, 1.5 TOpg, 76% (2PA) and 42% (3PA) in 24 mins/game. Rudy's touches are much more frequent in Spain than back in the NBA and he seems more energized.

Recent Chicago Bull draftee Nikola Mirotic had another lackluster EL performance with only two points vs. Maccabi. Though, he did have a few quality defensive sequences against Lior Eliyahu. The multi-talented forward has looked somewhat out of sync through his first three games partly due to foul trouble. However, the young Montenegrin has been more reliable in ACB play with 10.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 54.5% (2PA) and 46% (3PA) in 21 mins/game.

Serge Ibaka airballed a few shots but did pitch in with nine points and eight rebounds in 21 minutes. All of Serge's three field goals came on put-backs--one impressive follow slam in transition.

Jaycee Carroll helped keep Real in the game with his usual dose of deft shooting--4-for-5 on 3PA. Felipe Reyes scored most of his 15 points on mid-range jumpers. While Sergio Llull had little impact in this game, former NBAer Sergio Rodriguez picked up the slack with seven points, eight assists and two steals.

No surprise that Ante Tomic was a non-factor in this game as he was physically overwhelmed by Big Sofo. Tomic has been decent scoring on rolls or cuts this season, but questions still persist about his lack of strength and agressiveness.

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Caja Laboral improved to 3-0 in Group A with a 81-79 win over Olympiacos. Pablo Prigioni hit a short step-back jumper with time running out to secure the win.

Caja's starting frontline of Mirza Teletovic and Kevin Seraphin led the way and continues to be one of best PF-C combos through first three weeks of Euroleague play. Teletovic's accuracy was off (4-for-16) vs. Oly, but he still managed his third straight game of at least 20 pts, thanks to drawing fouls around the rim (11-for-13 FTA). Teletovic even added in three impressive blocks.

6-9 Teletovic is playing as well as anyone in Europe right now. Teletovic currently leads the EL in scoring at 21.7 ppg. He's carried over his strong play to the ACB, where through six games he's averaging 19.5 ppg (2nd in ACB), 8.5 rpg (2.8 off.), 52% on 2PA and 48& on 3PA in 31 mins/game.

It seems that Caja's main offensive objective this season is to establish Teletovic on the block. Now that Tiago Spliiter and Stanko Barac are no longer with Caja, Teletovic's post touches have increased over the last few years. Post game is not terribly refined, but he can hit turnarounds and draw fouls.

Think Mirza could be a solid rotation NBAer and the 26-year-old Teletovic is available to any NBA team as he was never drafted. Probably doesn't have the goods to start but could be a viable floor-spreading PF off the bench. Has proven he can be a lethal shooter spotting, coming off screens or off a few quick dribbles. Similar to Peja, he can drill shots from deep with defenders right in his face.

Good enough athlete and fairly strong build where he shouldn't overwhelmed physically by NBA forwards. Would definitely have some issues defensively in the NBA, but don't think he would get torched. Mirza is currently the 3rd-best rebounder in the ACB, though this could be an aberration as he tends to a be subpar rebounder for his size.

Kevin Seraphin missed only one of his eight shots for 15 pts. The Washington Wiz was effective as the roll man either knocking down two fluid mid-range pop jumpers or finishing in traffic multiple times. Seraphin did a nice job adjusting his shot at the rim all game. Encouraging sign that Seraphin has been showing a reliable touch on his jumpers so far.

'10-11 Euroleague First-Teamer Fernando San Emeterio finally came alive with 15 points after two previous subpar games with 15 points combined. The crafty SF used his sneaky driving ability to keep Olympiacos off balance.

Olympiacos played a pretty good game on the road and tied the game on a Vassilis Spanoulis 3pt. with just under ten seconds left. But Olympicos its their chances in the long run by shooting only 16-for-23 on the FT line.

Spanoulis was a factor pushing the ball in transition and doing his usual damage scoring or getting fouled off penetration. Spanoulis finished with 19 pts, seven assists and only had one turnover.

Olympiacos got good minutes from their PFs. Undersized 4-man Kyle Hines scored most of his 14 points off of smart cuts to rim. And Daily Dime Live fave Pero Antic tossed in 14 points as well.

The lumbering Lazaros Papadopoulos did a fine job scoring off a few nifty post moves and deftly found the open man when he was doubled (found Marko Keselj on the opposite a couple times for open jumpers).

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Games of Week 4:

Panathinaikos vs. CSKA (Thursday): Two of the most talented teams meet in Athens in a possible Final Four matchup preview. Both teams come into this game 3-0 and both teams have won each of their games in Group B convincingly. Andrei Kirilenko has been an all-around terror so far and he's ably supported by the likes of Milos Teodosic, Alexey Shved, Vik Khryapa and Nenad Krstic. Reigning Euroleague MVP Dimis Diamantidis has been terrific so far and Nick Calathes has played solid ball each game as well. Tough to pick the fave in this game--CSKA has unlimited depth but PAO is playing at home.

Barcelona vs. Siena (Thursday): The other main event of Week 4. Both teams come in 3-0 and like CKSA and PAO, both teams have had very few difficulties so far in group play. Siena is really good but think Barca is probably a level above them and could see Barca winning by double-digits at home.

Efes vs. Maccabi (Thursday): No let up in Group C play as both teams go from playing one tough opponent to the next. Closely matched 2-1 teams that feature plenty of players with NBA ties. We mentioned some of Maccabi players above, while Efes features Ersan Ilyasova (playing very well), Tarence Kinsey (also playing well).

A Few Euroleague First Round Observations

2011-11-01T21:34:00.000-07:00

The 24 Euroleague (EL) teams have played two of their 10 first round games so far and we wanted to take a look at some things that caught our eye over the first two weeks of play.

GROUP A:

Picked Caja Laboral (2-0) to take Group A and they have looked solid so far. Mirza Teletovic has been one of the top EL performers so far banging down 23 pts vs. Ulker and 22 pts vs. Cantu. Mirza's flawless stroke has been on--50% overall, 6-for-13 from 3pt. range--and he also has done damage posting and iso-ing. Washington Wiz Kevin Seraphin has aided Teletovic by pitching in 10 points in both game.

Some concerns that a very talented Fenerbahce Ulker squad has started 0-2, but keep in mind those losses came to Caja and Olympiacos. Recent NJ Net Bojan Bogdanovic has been a disappointment so far only scoring a total of two points through two games. Though it is hard for Bojan to get consistent touches with Roko Ukic, Curtis Jerrells and Emir Preldzic sharing ball-handling duties. Thabo Sefolosha had a very strong showing for Ulker vs. Olympiacos with 17 pts & 12 rebs.

Olympiacos got tripped up by an underrated Bilbao team on the road in the first week but they picked up a big win vs. Ulker (81-74) last week. Vassilis Spanoulis' aggressive playmaking (22 pts, 7 assts) was the key for Oly. Spanoulis did damage off of ball screens and combo forward Georgios Printezis (21 pts/7 rebs) hurt Ulker on cutting action (Mavs own Printezis' rights).

GROUP B:

CSKA and Panathinaikos (PAO) have been taking care of business through the first few weeks. Both teams have ably utilized their deep rosters to overwhelm their opponents.

Andrei Kirilenko's all-around game has been on display over the first two weeks--tore up Zalgiris with 17 pts, 15 rebs, 5 asts, 4 blks--while Nenad Krstic (double figures both games) has added some scoring in the post. Milos Teodosic and Alexey Shved have pitched in with sharp playmaking.

Not only do they have multiple scoring options, CSKA has plenty of gifted passers. Right now they've have assisted on 47 of their 64 field goals (73%).

Reigning EL MVP Dimis Diamantidis has been in fine form on both ends of the floor--put up 17 pts, 7 assts & 3 stls vs. Unicaja, 8 assts & 3 stls vs. Zagreb. Besides Dimis, PAO has gotten nice input from Romain Sato, Nick Calathes (12 pts in both games), Saras Jasikevicius an Steven Smith.

After a quiet game vs. PAO, Joel Freeland was superb vs. Zalgiris with 21 pts (10-of-17) and 12 rebs. Joel used some nice post moves to score vs. Robertas Javtokas (a tough interior defender). We mentioned before the mobile British big is NBA-ready and would make a fine reserve for the Blazers right now. Joel's inside-out game is similar to LaMarcus Aldridge's game and he could play alongside LaMarcus when needed.

Zalgiris' rough start (0-2) has already led to a coaching change and they might be in danger of falling to 0-3 as they face PAO on Friday. Ty Lawson has struggled to make a big impact so far, but Sonny Weems has been Zalgiris' top scoring option. Not surprisingly, Zalgiris has gotten very little scoring input from their frontline and the rumored pursuit of Chris Kaman (if lockout persists) makes a lot of sense.

GROUP C:

Real Madrid is coming off a nice win (85-78) over a good Milano team last week and has shown they have a ton of options inside and out.

Rudy Fernandez (17 pts vs. Milano, 19 pts vs. Spirou) has been back to his hyperactive self making plays off ball screens, isos, cuts and in transition. Rudy has been knocking down his jumpers and been very active.

Real has had good success running Rudy and Jaycee Carroll off screens. While guards Sergio Llull (Rockets own rights) and Martynas Pocius have also made solid contributions on the perimeter. To add to their embarrassment of riches, Real just added Serge Ibaka to an already talented frontcourt.

Efes suffered a terrible loss at home last week to an inferior Spirou club, 80-79. This could be a very costly loss as Efes does not have much room for error in this tough group.

Efes' SF Tarence Kinsey has been effective in both games (a total of 32 pts), usually relying on his jumper off of spot-ups or screens. Efes' other forward Ersan Ilyasova had a terrific all-around game vs. Spirou (21pts/6 rbs/2 stls/2 blks) which followed another solid game vs. Partizan (10 pts/4 rbs/4 stls/3 asts). Like Kinsey, Ersan's jumper has been his main weapon of choice.

Milano (1-1) lost to Real last week but were able to knock off Maccabi in the first week. Danilo Galinari has managed to reach double figures in both games (12 vs. Real, 23 vs. Mac) and as usual, has found a way to get to the rim leading to 23 trips to FT line over two games. Milano has gotten good minutes from their other SF, Malik Hairston, who had 25 pts vs. Mac and 18 vs. Real.

Nikola Pekovic (11/8 vs. Maccabi, 21/6 vs. Efes) has been a productive force around the basket in first two games drawing fouls (16-for-18 on FT line) at will. However, Pek's physicality has been a negative on the defensive end where he can't stay out of foul trouble--limited to roughly 20 minutes in both games. Cavs draftee Milan Macvan has been solid next to Pek with 14 pts in both games. Macvan's typical heady all-around game has been on display and he has been knocking down his jumpers.

GROUP D:

No surprise Barcelona is having few problems dominating in the weakest group. Barca beat Prokom by 27 and Union Olimpija by 22 last week. Expect Barca to finish the first round with double-digit point differential and only the games vs. Siena should be interesting.

Barca has gotten nice contributions from multiple players (JC Navarro, Pete Mickael, Chuck Eidson, Fran Vazquez). Ricky Rubio's replacement, Marcelo Huertas, has fit in seamlessly, scoring in double figures and dishing at least five assists in both games. Erazem Lorbek (Spurs hold rights) was quiet in Barca's first game, but had his refined skill set working last week connecting on his jumpers and a few short hooks for 20 pts on 7-of-9.

Like Barca, Siena (2-0) should have little difficulty over the next eight games (besides vs. Barca) and a spot in the Top 16 is highly likely. Bo McCalebb continues his assault (either in the open court or half-court) on opposing Euro competition, tossing up 17 points in both games. Bo was a perfect 8-for-8 on FGA vs. Union Olimpija and scored a bunch in transition. Siena just added more offensive firepower next to Bo in the form of Igor Rakocevic, one of the best pure scorers in Europe.

Galatasaray, Unics and Union Olimpija are playing for the last two Top 16 spots. Unics got an key victory on the road over Galatasaray last week that could go a long way to securing a Top 16 berth. Unics were led by two veteran American guards, Henry Domercant (16 pts) and Lynn Greer (12 pts).

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Games of the Week:

Caja Laboral vs. Olympiacos (Wednesday): Two of the top teams in Group A meet on Caja's home turf. Caja's frontcourt has played well so far while Olympiacos needs their centers to step up.

Real Madrid vs. Maccabi (Thursday): A Group C battle between Final Four-caliber teams. Two teams with a ton of perimeter talent, but would give Real the edge because their frontline has more depth and length.

Armani Milano vs. Efes (Thursday): Another good Group C game between two closely-matched teams. Both teams are similar in that they have talented rosters that have not played together much; a lot of new faces on both teams. A lot of talent at the forward position in this game: Milano has Galinari, Hairston, A. Fotsis, Efes has Ilyasova, Kinsey, Dusko Savanovic.

NCAA Basketball Viewing Guide for the NBA Draft Fan

2011-11-01T00:03:00.000-07:00

It's a sad day for NBA fans, as this should be the opening day of the 2011-12 NBA season. Instead, we stare into the abyss, and a nation of NBA fans must turn its lonely eyes to college basketball. Fortunately, our consolation prize is that it's an exceptional year for NBA draftniks to follow NCAA hoops.

First, several key players returned to school, creating a pool of 10-12 high-quality draft prospects (though I'm still a bit skeptical about just how high the ceiling of the top players is - I see some potential All-Stars rather than potential superstars as of now).

But what's particularly streamlined for draft fans this season is that so many top prospects are consolidated on so few teams. In looking at a consensus of prospect rankings combining ESPN.com's Chad Ford and DraftExpress's Jonathan Givony, 16 of the Top 20 prospects can be found in just six programs.

Here's a breakdown of those Big 6 schools and their prospects - these are the main teams we'll be focused on this season (rankings by Ford/Givony in parens):

• North Carolina (4): Harrison Barnes (2/3), James McAdoo (5/8), John Henson (14/13), Tyler Zeller (20/18)
• Kentucky (4): Anthony Davis (1/1), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (10/9), Terrence Jones (12/15), Marcus Teague (14/24)
• Connecticut (2): Andre Drummond (3/2), Jeremy Lamb (17/17)
• Baylor (2): Perry Jones (6/5), Quincy Miller (8/7)
• Florida (2): Bradley Beal (4/11), Patric Young (13/10)
• Duke (2): Austin Rivers (11/12), Mason Plumlee (19/19)

Additionally, here are the four other teams/players to round out the Top 20 prospects:

• Ohio State (1): Jared Sullinger (7/4)
• Kansas (1): Thomas Robinson (9/6)
• Texas (1): Myck Kabongo (16/16)
• Memphis (1): Adonis Thomas (18/14)

These are the ten teams we focused on in building our viewer's guide, though I must say that I gave Memphis pretty low priority after watching Thomas play so terribly in shooting just 3-24 from the floor in the three main postseason high-school all-star games (McDonald's All-American Game, Nike Hoop Summit, Jordan Brand Classic).

[Please note that I have written scouting reports on several top players in the high school classes of 2010 (sophomores) and 2011 (freshmen) after watching them in person at the Nike Hoop Summit, and on television on various other occasions.]

To this list, I'm adding the following teams for further consideration:

• Vanderbilt: The Commodores have players ranked 21 (Festus Ezeli), 26 (Jeff Turner) and 37 (John Jenkins) by Givony.

• Washington/Arizona/UCLA: A little Pac-10 representation to round things out, with a few schools who have a handful of talented prospects who fell short of the top 20.

While Washington's Tony Wroten is currently ranked just 27 (Ford)/53 (Givony), I believe this is a reflection of his mercurial nature. Maybe I'm a Seattle homer, but I believe he has more talent than higher-rated PGs like Teague and Kabongo, and will shoot ahead of them into the lottery if he keeps his head on straight. The Huskies also have a solid prospect on the wing in Terrence Ross (ranked 23/35).

Ford has said Arizona freshman Josiah Turner (ranked 26/25) "may be the most explosive point guard in the country when it comes to creating his own shot off the dribble." Meanwhile, UCLA sophomore Joshua Smith (ranked 24/22) is a skilled big man whom Givony has tabbed at no. 5 a year out in his 2013 Mock Draft.

• Syracuse/Pittsburgh/Villanova: Connecticut big man Andre Drummond, a candidate for the no. 1 pick, needs some competition, given UConn's thin non-conference schedule. More on his opposition in the guide below.

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OK, with all that preamble behind us, here we go, with your 2011-12 NCAA Basketball Viewing Guide for the NBA Draft Fan, featuring 25ish games to focus on for maximum prospect impact over the course of the college hoops season, in chronological order:

Nov. 15: Kentucky vs. Kansas (at New York), ESPN
A nice early look at Big Blue's annual crop of blue-chip recruits, this year headed by expected lottery picks Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist.

Nov. 15: Florida at Ohio State, ESPN2
Three potential lottery picks in Jared Sullinger, Bradley Beal and Patric Young. Sullinger and Young square off inside, while Beal matches up with Buckeye senior William Buford, a possible second-rounder.

Nov. 22/23: Maui Invitational (Tentative: Duke-Memphis/Kansas-UCLA), ESPN
Of course, the two prospective semifinal matchups are dependent upon those teams winning their quarterfinal games, but any combination of those four teams in the semis or the tournament final should yield a matchup with multiple first-round prospects.

Nov. 29: Duke at Ohio State, ESPN
If you want to see Jared Sullinger in meaningful matchups prior to March Madness, catch him early, for the Big Ten is once again a wasteland for top basketball prospects. No other Big Ten player cracks the Top 40 in either Ford's or Givony's list, continuing a pathetic trend for the conference. The conference's only Top 20 picks since 2008 are Evan Turner and Eric Gordon; Gordon is only non-Buckeye to crack the Top 20 since 2005. Several individual schools and mid-major conferences have a better record than the Big Ten in recent years. Like we said, catch Sullinger early, or you might as well wait until March Madness.

DEC. 3: NORTH CAROLINA AT KENTUCKY, CBS
If this were 1996, we'd have the font blinking and in a different color for this one. Clear the decks for Dec. 3 because this is without question the Game of the Year - a must-see matchup even if the NBA season opens on this day. It's almost hard to comprehend how many prospects will be on the floor in this meeting of the preseason no. 1 and no. 2 teams. Anthony Davis and Harrison Barnes are both strongly in the running for the no. 1 pick, with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and James McAdoo both having a longshot chance as well.

Of course, you have the eight total Top 20 guys listed up on top, including six guys tabbed as 2012 lottery picks by Ford. Consider that Carolina also has Kendall Marshall (34/36), who could easily play his way into the first round, plus freshman P.J. Hairston and sophomore Reggie Bullock, both pegged for the 2013 first round by Givony, and even Dexter Strickland cracks the top 100 in Givony's rankings (90). Meanwhile, in addition to its four potential 2012 lottery picks, Kentucky also has Doron Lamb (43/64) and another McDonald's All-American in freshman Kyle Wiltjer. This game could really include as many as 10-12 first-round picks - and maybe eight lottery picks - down the road if everything breaks right. Don't miss it.

Dec. 7: Arizona at Florida, ESPN2
A pair of explosive freshmen backcourt players in Beal and Turner.

Dec. 10: Ohio State at Kansas, ESPN
A good matchup of power forwards in Sullinger and Thomas Robinson of Kansas.

Dec. 10: Washington vs. Duke (at New York), CBS
Good matchup on the perimeter, as Wroten, Ross and Abdul Gaddy test their skills against the likes of Rivers, Seth Curry and Quinn Cook.

Dec. 21: Texas at North Carolina, ESPN2
Surprisingly, I had trouble finding many relevant games for Carolina. Other than two vs. Duke, Kentucky and this, nada. No other ACC teams are in the preseason Top 25s, and N.C. State's C.J. Leslie (31/31) is the conference's only Top 50 prospect outside of UNC/Duke.

Jan. 16: Baylor at Kansas, ESPN
Jan. 28: Texas at Baylor, CBS
Baylor has two prospects with as much upside as anyone in Jones and Miller. Should be a fun team to watch if they can even come close to putting it all together.

Jan. 28: Washington at Arizona, ESPN
Matchup of freshmen backcourt burners in Wroten and Turner. The rematch in Seattle is on Feb. 18 on FSN.

Feb. 7: Florida at Kentucky, ESPN
Conceivably as many as six 2012 lottery picks in this one.

Feb. 8: Kansas at Baylor, ESPN
Feb. 8: Duke at North Carolina, ESPN
Not a bad Wednesday night doubleheader. If you get off to a slow start on the season, don't fret, you have a chance to see literally half the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft in these three games on Feb. 7 and 8.

Feb. 11: Connecticut at Syracuse, ESPN
Finally, an appearance by Andre Drummond, a possible no. 1 overall pick. UConn's non-conference schedule is paper-thin, and it's tough to even find a Big East opponent that's relevant for scouting purposes until here. But the Orange are ranked no. 5 in the preseason, and have a pair of former McDonald's All-American bigs to throw at Drummond in freshman Rakeem Christmas (64/UR) and sophomore Fab Melo (93/UR), who was a disappointment as a frosh.

Feb. 11: Kentucky at Vanderbilt, ESPN
ESPN College GameDay comes to Nashville for this one.

Feb. 20: Connecticut at Villanova, ESPN
Feb. 20: Baylor at Texas, ESPN
Tasty Big Monday double-dip. Drummond faces Nova big Mouphtaou Yarou (37/28), while speedy Texas PG Kabongo goes up-and-down with Baylor in what should be an entertaining one.

Feb. 25: Vanderbilt at Kentucky, CBS
Rematch at Rupp; Vandy is ranked no. 7 in preseason polls, while Kentucky is no. 2.

Feb. 25: Syracuse at Connecticut, ESPN
Rematch at Gampel with ESPN College GameDay in Storrs.

Mar. 3: Pittsburgh at Connecticut, ESPN
These UConn games have been a little bit of a reach, but we had to get Drummond some exposure, as a possible no. 1 pick. In this one, he goes up against Canadian frosh Khem Birch, rated 54 by Ford, and placed at 19 in the 2013 draft by Givony. For what it's worth, I thought Birch looked pretty impressive as a bouncy presence in the McDonald's and Jordan Brand games (averaged 15 points, 8.5 rebounds, 5.5 blocks in the two games).

Mar. 3: North Carolina at Duke, ESPN
The best rivalry in the sport goes back to Cameron, chock full of prospects.

Mar. 4: Kentucky at Florida, CBS
One last rematch filled with potential lottery picks before Championship Week and March Madness get under way.

Good lord, I hope we get some NBA action well before here, but if not, there you go, your makeshift Plan B basketball schedule is set. Fill it in with some Euroleague and some Spanish ACB online, and hopefully we've at least created a tourniquet for your lockout-induced wounds.

2011-12 Basketball Books Overview

2011-10-26T09:58:00.000-07:00

While we still don't know when or if we will get NBA basketball in 2011-12, basketball books are certainly not being locked out of the marketplace. We've unearthed more than a couple dozen books across NBA, NCAA, international and women's basketball in our admittedly exhaustive annual survey. It shapes up to be a pretty good season of hoop books overall, with solid depth and diversity in both the pro and college ranks. Let's get right to it, with the books broken up into subcategories to make things somewhat digestible.

THE PROS
The Dream Team: How Basketball's Greatest Team Came Together, Conquered the World, and Changed the Game Forever, by Jack McCallum (release date: July 10, 2012)
While there are several intriguing titles right here at the top, the combination of author and subject matter here makes The Dream Team my no-brainer choice for most anticipated basketball book of the season. McCallum has published great reads with Seven Seconds or Less, which followed the '05-06 Suns, and Unfinished Business, which followed the '90-91 Celtics. And of course, from the mid-'80s through the mid-'90s, McCallum was the definitive chronicler of the league as Sports Illustrated's national NBA writer. This one's right in his wheelhouse. Coming out with the team's 20th anniversary, just in time for the London Olympics. I can't wait.

Shaq Uncut: My Story, by Shaquille O'Neal and Jackie MacMullan (Nov. 15)
It's hard to imagine this one won't be an entertaining ride. Hall-of-Famer MacMullan has a gift for drawing out her subjects, as she did with Magic and Larry in their joint book When The Game Was Ours. And Shaq has no shortage of stories, such as the early one from the book unearthed by SLAM in which the Big Shakespeare claimed that President Obama was to blame for Rajon Rondo's late-season shooting slump.

West by West: My Charmed, Tormented Life, by Jerry West and Jonathan Coleman (released Oct. 19)
This is the third straight year this one has appeared in our basketball books preview, and it's finally been released. The delay appears to be due to West apparently pouring his entire soul into the book. It certainly appears to be an uncommon athlete bio - the LA Times calls it "brutally candid" - as West reveals a history of physical abuse as a child and clinical depression as an adult, in addition to his many experiences as the definitive Laker, both on the court and in the front office. Looks like a riveting read.
• Jerry West: The Powells.com Interview
• A searing, searching autobiography (San Jose Mercury-News)

Brave Dragons: A Chinese Basketball Team, an American Coach, and Two Cultures Clashing, by Jim Yardley (Feb. 14)
This one is probably my sleeper hoop book of the year. Yardley is a Pulitzer Prize winner who was formerly the Beijing bureau chief for the New York Times. In this book, he follows the Shanxi Brave Dragons (the team which signed Stephon Marbury) and its American coach, longtime NBA vet Bob Weiss. Yardley already contributed a fascinating account of the Chinese public's ambivalent relationship with the Bayi Rockets, the team which brawled with the Georgetown Hoyas this summer, for Grantland.com. I'm particularly interested to learn how Weiss's signature magic tricks translated to a Chinese audience. Seriously, I'm hopeful that Brave Dragons can provide as fulfilling of a window into Chinese basketball culture as Pacific Rims did for Filipino hoops culture.

When the Garden Was Eden: Clyde, the Captain, Dollar Bill, and the Glory Days of the New York Knicks, by Harvey Araton (released Oct. 18)
As a longtime columnist for the New York Times, Araton is a proven commodity, so I'm expecting When The Garden Was Eden to be a professional work. The main question I'd ask is, Does the world really need yet another book about the early-'70s Knicks? Frazier, Reed, Bradley, DeBusschere, Jackson and Holzman all wrote at least one, in many cases multiple, books about their glory years in New York, and the glorious 1969-70 season has been well-covered in the likes of The City Game or Miracle on 33rd Street. I suppose enough time has passed that it's fair to get a fresh look at the entire era, but really, no other NBA champion has a higher ratio of books to rings than the early-'70s Knicks, and it's likely not close.
• Excerpt: The Parable of the Pearl (ESPN.com)

The Whore of Akron: One Man's Search for the Soul of LeBron James, by Scott Raab (Nov. 15)
Raab, a jilted Cavs fan, brings the vitriol in his anti-LeBron screeds. Raab's crossed the line a little too far for my taste, but that's just one man's opinion, as he's tapped into a vein of post-Decision anger and hatred of LeBron which certainly exists, and is possibly even prevalent in Cleveland.
• Excerpt: Jew Over Miami (Esquire)

Joe Tait: It's Been a Real Ball, by Terry Pluto and Joe Tait (Nov. 4)
On a friendlier Cavs-related note, legendary NBA writer Pluto (Loose Balls, 48 Minutes, The Franchise) joins forces with Hall of Fame broadcaster Tait, whose distinctive voice called games on the radio for 39 of the Cavs' 41 seasons, before retiring this past April.

The Greatest NBA Teams, by Roland Lazenby (Nov. 15)
Veteran writer Lazenby - author of Blood on the Horns, The Show, and Jerry West, among many, many other NBA books - offers his take on the best teams of all time.

Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12, by Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle (TBD)
Let's be optimistic and say that when the NBA lockout ends, Pelton and Doolittle will be two of the hardest-working men in NBA writing, in trying to turn around a season-preview book ASAP while trying to stay on top of what promises to be a frantic barrage of transactions. A new College Basketball Prospectus is right around the corner, as well. Both the NBA and NCAA versions of the Prospectus have quickly established themselves as essential season previews.

COLLEGE GENERAL
The Last Great Game: Duke vs. Kentucky and the 2.1 Seconds That Changed Basketball, by Gene Wojciechowski (Jan. 5)
I distinctly remember watching the legendary Duke-Kentucky 1992 East Regional Final and thinking that it was the greatest college game I'd ever seen before Christian Laettner's buzzer-beater. I'm not sure if it was the last great game, though I do think that the early-'90s were the end of college basketball's golden era. Players entering the draft early en masse was the turning point for me. Wojciechowski has a tough chore to surpass the bar set by Alexander Wolff's epic piece, "The Shot Heard Round The World", published in Sports Illustrated in 1992.

Beyond the Phog: Untold Stories from Kansas Basketball's Most Dominant Decade, by Jason King with Jesse Newell (released Oct. 17)
Yahoo!'s King tells Jayhawks tales from the years bridging the Roy Williams and Bill Self eras at one of college basketball's most storied programs.
• Multiple excerpts (KUSports.com)

Color Him Orange: The Jim Boeheim Story, by Scott Pitoniak (Nov. 1)
Pitoniak, a longtime columnist for the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, pens the bio of a man who bleeds orange, Hall-of-Famer Jim Boeheim, who starred for Syracuse in the '60s and has been the school's hugely successful head coach since 1976.

Don't Put Me In, Coach: My Incredible NCAA Journey from the End of the Bench to the End of the Bench, by Mark Titus (Mar. 6)
Titus made his name with his blog Club Trillion, and now delivers a book-length version of his life & times as an Ohio State benchwarmer. Titus can also currently be found writing for Grantland.

The Big Dance: The Story of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, by Barry Wilner & Ken Rappoport (Feb. 16)
Two veteran AP sportswriters offer a history of March Madness.

COLLEGE COFFEE TABLES
The College Basketball Book, by the Editors of Sports Illustrated (released Oct. 11)
Yet another in the series of handsome, richly illustrated sport-by-sport volumes from the editors of SI. Worthy of a spot in the library of any serious college hoops fan.

Wooden: Basketball & Beyond: The Official UCLA Retrospective, by Richard Hoffer (Nov. 1)
I got an opportunity to take a sneak peek at this one, and it's a beautiful collection of on- and off-court photographs spanning the entire dynastic John Wooden era at UCLA.
• John Wooden: Up close and personal in pictures (UCLA Today)

An Illustrated History of Duke Basketball: A Legacy of Achievement, by Bill Brill (Feb. 8)
An updated edition of this official Duke basketball history is the last work by Duke alum Brill, a longtime journalist who passed away in April.

COLLEGE OLD-SCHOOL HISTORY
ACC Basketball: The Story of the Rivalries, Traditions, and Scandals of the First Two Decades of the Atlantic Coast Conference, by J. Samuel Walker (Nov. 15)
Gotta love the passion of ACC hoops fans: J. Samuel Walker is a historian who normally writes about nuclear weapons/energy, but the man has enough love of the game to knock out a book on how the ACC cemented itself as a leading basketball conference from 1953 to 1972.

The Classic: How Everett Case and His Tournament Brought Big-Time Basketball to the South, by Bethany Bradsher (Nov. 11)
Speaking of Tobacco Road-related hoops history, Bradsher offers a history of The Dixie Classic, a prominent holiday tournament held in Raleigh from 1949 to 1960 which showcased the four big North Carolina schools (North Carolina, Duke, N.C. State, Wake Forest) and which was the brainchild of legendary N.C. State coach Everett Case.
• Sample: Introduction (Whitecaps Media)
• A Look Back at the Dixie Classic (Technician Online)

Blitz Kids: The Cinderella Story of the 1944 University of Utah National Championship Basketball Team, by Josh Ferrin and Tres Ferrin (Feb. 2)
Earlier this year, Alex Wolff and Michael Atchison wrote a story in Sports Illustrated which called this Utah team "The First Cinderella". Arnie Ferrin was the star of this team, and his son and grandson have teamed up to write a book celebrating these Utes.
• Blitz-Kids.com

Cowboy Up: Kenny Sailors, The Jump Shot and Wyoming's Championship Basketball History, by Ryan Thorburn (Sept. 5)
If we're getting a book on the 1944 NCAA champions, then why not the 1943 champs as well? Sailors was one of pioneers of the jump shot. A photo of him shooting in midair became iconic after appearing in LIFE magazine. The picture can be seen on the book's cover art, or at a web site called KennySailorsJumpShot.com.
• Kenny Sailors: Father of Basketball's Jump Shot

FEMALE LEGENDS
You Let Some Girl Beat You?: The Story of Ann Meyers Drysdale, by Ann Meyers Drysdale with Joni Ravenna (June 12)
The autobiography of one of the greatest female basketball players who's ever lived, one of the pioneers of the women's game, Ann Meyers Drysdale, who starred for UCLA, once tried out with the Indiana Pacers, and is now the president and general manager of the WNBA's Phoenix Mercury.

2010-11 ADDENDUMS
Inevitably, a few basketball books fall through the cracks of our previews written at the start of each season, as a handful that we weren't anticipating pop up on shelves both real and virtual. Here are a few additions to last year's list:

Basketball Junkie: A Memoir, by Chris Herren and Bill Reynolds (released May 10)
In 1994, Reynolds wrote the memorable Fall River Dreams, about a Massachusetts high-school team whose star was Herren, a McDonald's All-American guard. Almost two decades later, Herren, who never panned out in the NBA, has collaborated with Reynolds on a memoir detailing his struggles with drug addiction and recovery. Herren's story will also be told as an ESPN Films documentary called Unguarded, which airs next Tuesday.
• Excerpt (SLAM)

Dr Jack on Winning Basketball, by Dr. Jack Ramsay and Neal Vahle (released March 1)
The product description says, "Dr. Jack on Winning Basketball will take fans on a 55-year journey as Jack recounts an endless array of basketall tales, legends and lore." Don't need much more than that to sell me on a product by the Hall-of-Fame coach and first-rate broadcast analyst.
• Excerpt: How Basketball Saved My Life (ESPN.com)

Mavericks Stampede: Dirk Leads Dallas to the 2011 NBA Championship, by Rob Mahoney (released June 17)
A little TrueHoop Network love, as Rob Mahoney of the Mavericks blog The Two Man Game knocked out a book on the Mavs' title run. Mahoney is one of the best and sharpest young basketball writers out there; his work can also be found on NYTimes.com, NBCSports.com, and about 47 other outlets.

Perfect: Bob Knight and Indiana's 2-Year Quest, by Bob Hammel (released March 24)
This is an e-book-only release which reprinted the books Knight with the Hoosiers (1975) and All The Way (1976) in one electronic volume. Perfect tracks the heyday of Indiana basketball, as the Hoosiers went 31-1 in '74-75, followed up by the last undefeated season in college basketball, a 32-0 run in '75-76. Hammel has been close to Knight for many years (he was the ghostwriter of the coach's autobiography), so expect good access, but a party-line view of The General.
• Sneak preview (AuthorHouse Books)

The Defender: Manute Bol's Journey from Sudan to the NBA and Back, by Jordan Conn (released July 8)
Another e-book release, and a mini-book at that, but I wanted to include it after TrueHoop called it a "must-read account" and "the real story of Manute Bol." Henry Abbott went on to say that "Conn's painstaking work, based on extensive time in the Sudan, tells of a far more fascinating, important, likable and fallible human than NBA fans ever got a chance to know."
• Excerpt: Manute Bol: The Ultimate Defender (SI.com)

GRAND FINALE
Sarah Palin and the Wasilla Warriors: The True Story of the Improbable 1982 Alaska State Basketball Championship, by Mike Shropshire (Feb. 28)
She was the point guard known as Sarah Barracuda in those days, before she went rogue.

PREVIOUS BASKETBALL BOOKS COVERAGE
• 2010-11 Basketball Books Preview
• 2009-10 Basketball Books Preview
• Basketball Books 2008-09
• New Golden Age: 26 Intriguing Basketball Books from 2004-07

2011-12 Euroleague First Round Primer

2011-10-18T20:27:00.001-07:00

With the NBA still in limbo, the top caliber of basketball in the world can be found in the Euroleague, whose 2011-12 season tips off on Wednesday with a slate of four games, highlighted by Fenerbahce vs. Caja Laboral. (CSKA beat Zalgiris on Monday.) Six games to follow on Thursday and one game on Friday. The first round runs until Dec. 22.

In the first round, 24 teams are divided into four opening-round groups of six teams apiece. Each team plays the other five teams in its group twice (home-away). The top four teams from each group move on to the the Top 16 round, which runs from Jan. 18-Mar. 1.

Then, the top two teams in each of those group moves on to the quarterfinal round, which starts Mar. 21. The four winners of each best-of-five quarterfinal series earns a trip to Istanbul for the EL Final Four on May 11-13.

As of right now (lockout could change things), the top five contenders are CSKA, Panathinaikos, Real Madrid, Maccabi Tel Aviv and Barcelona. Other strong teams slightly a level below the top five are Caja Laboral, Fenerbahce Ulker, Olympiacos, Zalgiris, AJ Milano, Efes and Montepaschi Siena.

It's a bit difficult to forecast this season as the NBA lockout could alter some rosters as we get deeper into the EL season. For example if the Gasols were to end up on Barcelona, they are the overwhelming faves.

In the U.S., ESPN3.com will be showing many Euroleague games throughout the season.

(Teams listed in order of predicted finish)

GROUP A:
1) Caja Laboral
2) Fenerbahce Ulker
3) Olympiacos
4) Bilbao
5) Bennet Cantu
6) Nancy
Summary: Would say Caja, Fenerbahce and Olympiacos are tightly bunched at the top of this group, while Bilbao is team that can't be overlooked and has sleeper-type potential.

Caja Laboral has lost Marcelo Huertas and Stanko Barac but still retain Fernando San Emeterio and Mirza Teletovic. Teletovic is another key offensive threat for Caja who is one of the best shooters in Europe. San Emerterio (EL 1st-Teamer in '10-'11) makes up for his mediocre physical skills with terrific smarts--very sneaky driver.

They also will have Reggie Williams to turn to to offer more scoring pop. SG Brad Oleson will take over for Williams if/when he has to go back to the States. Nemanja Bjelica (TWolves own rights) is a quality reserve at the forward spots.

Veteran PG Pablo Prigioni comes over from Real to take over for Huertas. One concern for Caja is the lack of length. Maciej Lampe might miss most of the first round with injury. Joey Dorsey is signed for the entire season while Kevin Seraphin is available as long as the lockout continues.

Turkish power Fenerbahce Ulker should be able to push Caja thanks to a deep roster. They have a bunch of talent on the wings with Bojan Bogdanovic, Emer Preldzic, Marko Tomas and Thabo Sefolosha available. Preldzic, Bogdanovic and Tomas can all handle the ball. Tomas and veteran PF Mirsad Turkcan are currently sidelined with injury and might miss a chunk of the first round. Roko Ukic and Curtis Jerrells give Ulker two good options at PG. Kaya Pekar and Oguz Savas provide servicable bulk off the bench.

This might be the weakest team Olympiacos has assembled in awhile. However, there is still a fairly deep roster that should allow this team to advance to the Top 16 round. With Milos Teodosic and Theo Papaloukas gone, the brunt of the playmaking duties will rest on Vassilis Spanoulis' shoulders.

Spanoulis is one of the better guards in Europe thanks to his penetration, but he's a TO machine. Recent Mich. State grad Kalin Lucas will try to lessen the playmaking burden on Spanoulis.

Oly's frontcourt rotation is two limited, lumbering bigs, Lazaros Papadopoulus and Andreas Glyniadakis, who will try to make up for the loss of Giannis Bourousis. Stretch-4 Pero Antic brings his dicey shot selection and chip-strap beard to the mix.

Recent Butler grad Matt Howard and combo forward Georgios Printezis (Raptors own rights) will also see minutes on the backline for Oly. Undersized PF Kyle Hines comes over from Germany where he had a nice season for Brose last year. Marko Keselj, Kostas Papinikolau and Panagiotis Vassilopoulos are a nice athletic fleet of small forwards.

Bilbao might be the sleeper in Euroleague field and can steal a game from any team in this group. Bilbao has some solid vets up front with Axel Hervelle, Marko Banic, D'or Fischer and Dimitrios Mavroeidis. Hervelle is still recovering from a leg injury he sustained during Euro '11 prep. SG Aaron Jackson leads this team and might have a future in the NBA. Alex Mumbru, Kostas Vasiliadis, Janis Blums and Raul Lopez round out a quality perimeter rotation.

Cantu can challenge Bilbao for the final Top 16 bid in Group A, though they rely on some older guys and are not the most athletic bunch. Former Oregon Duck Maarty Leunen is their top frontcourt option. Athletic SG Manuchar Markoishvili is the main perimeter option who can hit off screens or spotting. Cantu will count on two 36-year-old shooting guards, Nicolas Mazzarino and Gianluca Basile, to provide sharpshooting off the bench. Recent acquisition Giorgi Shermadini was much needed as starting center Denis Marconato (36 years old) can only go limited minutes.

Reigning French league champ Nancy has added Nic Batum for the time being, but not much firepower after him. Former NCAA standouts PF Akinlolu Akingbala (Clemson), PG John Linehan (Providence) and Jamal Shuler (VCU) will try to help Nancy stay competitive.

GROUP B:
1) CSKA
2) Panathinaikos (PAO)
3) Zalgiris
4) Unicaja
5) Brose
6) Zagreb
Summary: Solid group led by title contenders CSKA and PAO. Zalgiris, Unicaja and Brose should compete for the last two Top 16 bids in the group.

CSKA is coming off a somewhat disappointing '10-'11 EL campaign where they failed to get out of the first round. CKSA is a legit 12-deep, has good size at each position and can put out a variety of different lineups with many players being able to play multiple positions. CSKA has added Andrei Kirilenko, Nenad Krstic and Milos Teodosic to an already stacked roster.

Even if Kirilenko doesn't finish the season, CSKA is a Final Four contender. Kirilenko is not obligated to go back to the NBA since he's an unrestricted FA and would not be surprised if he stays the whole year with CSKA. With Andrei, I would give CSKA the slight edge to win the EL title.

Teodosic, Alexey Shved and Jamont Gordon give CSKA three dynamic ball-handlers, though all three guys can be prone to careless TOs. Trajan Langdon and JR Holden are recently retired but CSKA still has the services of vet SF Rimas Siskauksas. Siskauskas is another playmaker at CSKA's disposal.

Much like on the Russian national team, Vik Khryapa and Kirilenko provide CSKA with all-around threats at the forward spots. Andrey Vorontsevich gives this team another versatile 6-9 forward off the bench. Darjus Lavrinovic and Sasha Kaun are two other nice options at center behind Krstic. Anything short of a Final Four appearance would be a disappointment.

Defending champ Panathinaikos kept most of their its intact and should challenge CSKA for Group B supremacy. Last season's Euroleague MVP Dimis Diamantidis returns to cause problems for the opposition on both ends of the floor. '10-11 Euroleague 1st-team selection Mike Batiste remains one of the most dangerous roll men in Europe.

When Aleks Maric is healthy, he's a top-notch big who can pound the glass and draw fouls. Romain Sato teams with Diamantidis to form a destructive defensive tandem on the perimeter. Should be interesting to see if PAO misses Antonis Fotsis' shooting and defense at the PF spot.

PAO added Saras Jasikevicius back into the mix and he showed at EuroBasket he can still be effective in limited duty. Saras' shooting ability allows him play minutes at the off-guard and he can play alongside NIck Calathes off the bench. David Logan is another proven perimeter option for Coach Obradovic to call on.

Zalgiris' most heralded addition has been Denver PG Ty Lawson. If/when Lawson has to go back to the States, Zalgiris won't be in bad shape as Mantas Kalnietis is a capable PG. The poor man's Juan Navarro, combo guard Marko Popovic, is a potent offensive option in the backcourt. Sonny Weems is signed for the entire season and adds some more scoring pop alongside Popovic. Veteran bigs Robertas Javtokas, Paulius Jankunas and Milovan Rakovic provide toughness on the frontline but not great scoring.

Unicaja is anchored by one of the top bigs in Europe, Joel Freeland. Freeland (Blazers own rights) can do damage inside and out, and he could be a quality rotation player in the NBA right now. Unicaja will rely on on a trio of Americans--Earl Rowland, Gerald Fitch and Tremmell Darden--to provide some scoring pop on the perimeter.

German representative Brose is led by former Stanford standout shooter Casey Jacobsen. Besides Jacobsen, Brose gets key contributions from other former NCAA standouts like PJ Tucker (Texas), Marcus Slaughter (San Diego St.), Julius Jenkins (Ga. Southern) and Brian Roberts (Dayton). Brose is solid team that could push Unicaja for the final Top 16 berth.

Zagreb doesn't have much of a chance of getting out of this group. They have already changed coaches after a poor start in the Adriatic league. The frontcourt is not in bad shape with the likes of Sean May, Mario Kasun and Josh Heytvelt available. But the the backcourt is hurting for talent.

GROUP C:
1) Maccabi
2) Real Madrid
3) AJ Milano
4) Efes
5) Partizan
6) Spirou
Summary: Group C seems to be the proverbial "Group of Death". Maccabi and Real are very closely-matched and both are serious Final Four contenders, while a very solid team (possibly Partizan, Efes or AJ Milano) won't make it out of the first round.

Even though they lost Jeremy Pargo--who was one of the best players in the EL last season--Maccabi has a very deep roster that can make a repeat run to the Final Four. Expect this David Blatt-led team to execute crisp sets and repeat the strong defensive play from last year.

They have turned to two Americans to bolster their backcourt, Jordan Farmar and Jon Scheyer. Farmar will have to return to the Nets if the lockout ends, but Scheyer is signed for the season. Veteran playmaker Theo Papaloukas moves over from Olympiacos to give Blatt more ball-handling options.

Maccabi could be even more dangerous as they are currently in pursuit of Omri Casspi and Keith Langford. Maccabi has retained their solid veteran forward rotation of Lior Eliyahu, Richard Hendrix, David Blu and Guy Pnini. Eliyahu is a key scoring option close-in with is array of flip shots while Pnini and Blu bang jumpers.

Sofo Schortsanitis is the primary interior option and Big Sofo is coming off a terrific '10-11 campaign that earned him a EL 1st-team nod. The one minor concern is the lack of size. Maccabi recruited former NCAA shot-blocking ace Shawn James to add some much-needed bouncy length.

Like Maccabi, Real Madridwill try to make a return to the Final Four and they have a loaded roster that's as formidable as Maccabi's. For combo guard Sergio Llull, it will be interesting to see how he handles increased point-guard duties with the departure of Pablo Prigioni. Sergio Rodriguez will take some of the ball-handling burden off Llull.

The frontcourt rotation of Ante Tomic, Felipe Reyes, Nikola Mirotic, Novica Velickovic and Mirza Begic is very talented. All five guys can create offense down low--Tomic and Mirotic are two of the most refined players in Europe. Unlike Tomic, Begic actually uses his size to cause problems on the defensive end.

Real has Rudy Fernandez signed for the time being. If Rudy can stay the whole season, it would be a boon as the SF position could use some depth. Could see Mirotic and Velickovic sliding over to the 3-spot sometimes. Velickovic needs to regain his '09-10 form after struggling last year to adapt to Mirotic getting more minutes. If Rudy has to go back to the Mavs, Real can turn Martynas Pocius and Jaycee Carroll for some scoring on the wings.

Efes and AJ Milano are both intriguing teams with a lot of raw talent but how the talent jells together is the big question. Milano has a quality veteran roster with plenty of new pieces thrown together. A nice potential starting lineup of Omar Cook, Drew Nicholas, Danilo Gallinari, Antonis Fotsis and Giannis Bourousis (all five guys new to Milano). This lineup can really spread the floor with Fotsis and Bourousis' ability to face-up.

Even if Gallinari won't finish the season in Milan, they can to turn to Stefano Mancinelli and Malik Hairston to take his spot. Leon Radosevic is a promising young big that should provide quality support off the bench. Clearly a ton of talent, but how will all of it mesh together is the real question.

Like Milano, Efes has added quality vets to the roster like Sasha Vujacic, Terence Kinsey, Stanko Barac, Esteban Batista and Vlado Ilievski.

Ersan Ilyasova is also currently on the Efes roster. And if Ersan has to go back to the States, Efes can turn to Dusko Savanovic (another new addition) to take his starting spot. PG Kerem Tunceri is one of the few returning players and usually provides any team he's on with a steady influence.

Partizan will have a hard time getting out Group C. The good news for Partizan is they will likely have Nikola Pekovic for most of the first round. The frontcourt is also bolstered by Miroslav Raduljica and Milan Macvan (recently loaned out from Maccabi). Both guys have some skills on the offensive end. Acie Law is signed for the entire season and should get the starting nod to run the offense.

Spirou recently just advanced through the mini-qualification tourney to earn one of the last two bids but was done no favors by being placed in this brutal group. Their chances of getting out of group play are slim to none. Spirou's slim chances took a hit when Mickael Gelabale recently left the team. Christophe Beghin is a decent scoring option in the post and possible draft prospect Tornike Shengalia is a strong rebounder and finisher.

GROUP D:
1) Barcelona
2) Montepaschi Siena
3) Galatasaray
4) UNICS Kazan
5) Union Olimpija
6) Asseco Prokom
Summary: Group D is probably the weakest group with Barca and Siena clearly a level above the other four teams. Barca and Siena should easily roll into Top 16 relatively unscathed. Would not be surprised to see Barca go undefeated in group play as Barca's only competitive games should be vs. Siena.

Barca is once again is loaded with primo talent led by Juan Navarro and Erazem Lorbek. Ricky Rubio is gone but Barca filled the vacancy with Marcelo Huertas, one of the top PGs in Europe. They have also added multi-skilled combo guard Chuck Eidson to provide more quality playmaking to the backcourt. Barca also retained quality vets like Pete Mickeal, Fran Vazquez, Joe Ingles and Boniface Ndong. Right now the Gasols are practicing with Barca and if the NBA season is cancelled, if either one of those guys (or both) are signed, hand Barca the trophy.

Most of the same players who helped Siena advance to last season's Final Four return this season. Bo McCalebb is the featured player for Siena and he's no doubt the most feared penetrator in Europe. Bo has quality auxiliary support in the backcourt from Rimas Kaukenas, Nikos Zisis and Pietro Aradori. DaJuan Summers should start at SF and is signed for the season.

After an unsuccessful stint in the NBA, David Andersen returns to Euro ball to help Siena's frontcourt. Energy forward Shaun Stonerook and PF/C Ksystof Lavrinovic return to bolster the frontline rotation.

The last two Top 16 berths in Group D should be up for grabs as not much separates Galatasaray, Union and UNICS.

Even though Galatasaray was one of the last two teams to qualify, they have enough veteran talent to compete for a Top 16 berth. This Turkish club has upgraded its roster by adding Jaka Lakovic, Ender Arslan, Darius Songaila and Zaza Pachulia. (Songaila is signed for the year while Zaza has an out-clause). Former NCAA standouts Josh Shipp and Preston Shumpert round out the rotation.

UNICS is a veteran-laden club with a heavy American influence. Have a trio of quality scorers in the backcourt with Henry Domercant, Lynn Greer and Terrell Lyday. All three guys will share ball-handling duties. Former Wisconsin standout Mike Wilkinson and Kelly McCarty are other viable options at the forward spots. Nathan Jawai and Alexey Savrasenko are a servicable center tandem. This team ain't young--most of their key guys are over 30

Slovenian champ Union Olimpija will be able to compete for a Top 16 spot thanks to its collective ability to spread the floor. Union will call upon two former UNC Tar Heels, Danny Green and Deon Thompson, to play big roles. Thompson bolsters a solid frontline that includes stretch-4 Damir Markota and old-school bruiser Ratko Varda. Ben Woodside and Aleksander Capin will split PG duties. Recent Spurs draftee Davis Bertans and Sasu Salin give this team two young sharpshooters off the bench.

Prokom did not fare well in EL play last year and the Polish champ's chances are not any better this year as they have a weaker roster. Recent Rocket draftee Donatas Motiejunas comes over from Treviso to lead this team. Alonzo Gee (has an out-clause) and Devin Brown will try to help Motiejunas make Prokom respectable.

Early Take: London 2012 Olympic Basketball Power Rankings

2011-10-02T22:00:00.001-07:00

After China edged Jordan 70-69 last Sunday for the FIBA Asia championship (in what was likely the most-watched basketball game in the world this year), the qualifying season for the 2012 Olympic men's basketball competition ended for this year.

As we did four years ago, we're taking an early look at sizing up the 21 countries which are still alive in the race for Olympic gold - both the nine countries which have qualified for the 12-team field in London, and the 12 nations which will compete at next July's pre-Olympic qualifying tournament that will determine the final three spots.

So, here we go with some early handicapping of the 2012 Olympic field, with some FIBA Power Rankings:

QUALIFIED FOR LONDON (9)

TIER I
Anything can happen in a one-and-done setting, but if anyone other than the U.S. and Spain is playing in the gold-medal game in London next August, it'll be an upset.

1. USA (Qualified as: FIBA World Champion)

As we work our way down this list, the key recurring variable which causes uncertainty is the question "Who'll be playing in the summer of 2012?" While Team USA has plenty of roster uncertainty for London 2012, they've also certainly earned the right to top these rankings, after an entirely new lineup of players with little international experience followed up 2008 Olympic gold by impressively marching through the 2010 FIBA World Championships. The system implemented by Jerry Colangelo and Coach K is now a well-oiled machine, and the Americans should have several of the 20 or so best players in the world on their team one way or another. The foibles of the 2002-06 era are in the past, and Team USA is once again a strong favorite to win Olympic gold.

2. SPAIN (Qualified as: EuroBasket Champion)

After a disappointing performance without Pau Gasol at the 2010 World Championships, Spain roared back with an impressive run to its second straight EuroBasket title, with a point differential of +13.5 for the tournament. MVP Juan Carlos Navarro was in full La Bomba mode during the knockout round, but it's Pau Gasol who is the lynchpin for this side. Pau easily led the EuroBasket with a whopping 36.9 PER (20 & 8 on 54% FG in 26 minutes per game).

While the return of Pau was essential for Team España, the addition of newly naturalized Serge Ibaka was an intriguing personnel game-changer for Spain. Ibaka, who was a force in the gold-medal game with five blocks in 21 minutes, adds a welcome dose of athleticism. The equation of Gasol bros. plus Serge might well equal the best rotation of bigs in London, depending upon the frontline players Team USA is able to assemble.

TIER II
While there are heavy favorites for gold and silver, the picture for bronze is wide open. Any of the three teams listed here in Tier II - plus the 3 teams which qualify at the pre-Olympic tournament (see below), who will all probably ultimately slot in somewhere in this tier - has at least a decent shot getting onto the podium.

3. FRANCE (Qualified as: EuroBasket 2nd Place)

With some of the best talent and athleticism in world basketball (they easily have the most NBA players of any non-U.S. country), France has been a FIBA underachiever in recent years, but they put it all together in Lithuania, qualifying for their first Olympic appearance since 2000.

Considering that Joakim Noah was France's key addition, one would think that the team's improvement was on the defensive end. The numbers, however, show that France played its best offense in years, finishing 4th in the tournament at 76.6 points per 70 possessions. This gang that too often can't shoot straight also finished a surprising 4th in three-point percentage, at 38.4%. Here's where France has ranked in points per possession in recent major FIBA tournaments (thanks to the essential In-The-Game.org for the numbers):

               RANK      /  PPP (70 poss)
2006 WC:    17th (of 24) / 64.6
2007 Euro:   8th (of 16) / 72.2
2009 Euro:   7th (of 16) / 73.2
2010 WC:    14th (of 24) / 71.4
2011 Euro:   4th (of 24) / 76.6

Certainly, the return of Tony Parker after a year off was critical to the French offense. Parker was the best guard in the tourney, averaging 22.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.7 steals in 35 minutes per game. Also, Nic Batum delivered a fine EuroBasket, averaging 13.8 points and 2.0 steals with 53.5% FG in 31.5 minutes, an improvement on his play in Turkey in 2010 (12.5 points and 1.3 steals with just 42.9% FG in 28.5 minutes).

France still has room for improvement, as they could potentially add players like Ronny Turiaf, Roddy Beaubois or Mickael Pietrus to this year's squad.

4. BRAZIL (Qualified as: FIBA Americas 2nd Place)

5. ARGENTINA (Qualified as: FIBA Americas Champion)

Speaking of years of underachievement, after years of dismal coaching, Brazil turned over the reigns to Coach Ruben Magnano, architect of Argentina's 2002 Worlds silver and 2004 Olympic gold, and they qualified for their first Olympic basketball tournament since the days of Oscar back in 1996.

We touched on this at length last month, but we fully expect 2012 to be the year in which the torch of South American basketball officially gets passed from Argentina to Brazil.

To review, at the recent FIBA Americas tournament, Argentina was expect to dominate the competition, playing at home and with essentially its full complement of players. Instead, Argentina lost to Brazil 73-71 in second-round play, and had to dig down deep, with the support of a passionate home crowd, for a late fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Brazilians 80-75 in the dramatic gold-medal game.

Not only can Brazil add players like Leandro Barbosa and Andy Varejao to this year's lineup, but they also have several young players in their primes or improving. Meanwhile, every good player for Argentina is on the wrong side of 30, and there's no significant young talent waiting in the wings. Brazil is on the rise, Argentina is in decline.

Certainly, the Olympic schedule won't be as punishing as the 10-games-in-13-days slate which wore out the Argentines by the end of the FIBA Americas. Still, I don't think Argentina will have enough depth or youth to compete with the top teams in 2012. This Golden Generation of Argentina basketball has been one of my favorite teams to watch, on any level of basketball, ever, so it hurts me to say that I will be surprised if they make it out of the quarterfinals in London.

TIER III
The Tier III teams are unlikely to be near the medal podium, but are talented and scrappy enough to pull off an upset or two.

6. AUSTRALIA (Qualified as: FIBA Oceania "Champion")

After surviving the grueling best-of-three series vs. New Zealand that is FIBA Oceania qualifying, Australia is back in the Olympic basketball tournament for the 11th straight time, dating back to 1972. The health and availability of Andrew Bogut will likely be the determining factor of whether the Boomers can compete into the knockout round, or if they'll be eliminated in the Group Stage.

7. GREAT BRITAIN (Qualified as: Host)

British basketball is still a program in development, as they contested their first EuroBasket in 2009, and are now using host-nation status for their first Olympic appearance since London hosted the 1948 Games. For such a nascent program, the Brits have been surprisingly competitive, consistently well-coached under Houston Rockets assistant Chris Finch (not, mind you, this guy). Great Britain nearly shocked Spain without Luol Deng at the 2009 EuroBasket, and they were a respectable 2-3 in the brutal Group A (Spain, Lithuania, Turkey) at the 2011 EuroBasket.

G.B. has a legitimate go-to guy in Deng, who led all players in scoring with 24.6 points per game at the recent EuroBasket. Finally corralling the services of Ben Gordon onto the national team would obviously provide a huge boost, as would the return of Pops Mensah-Bonsu, who missed the 2011 EuroBasket due to injury after being a stalwart on the boards in Euro qualifying play. I expect the Brits to upset somebody before the home crowd.

TIER IV
Enjoy the fortnight in London.

8. CHINA (Qualified as: FIBA Asia Champion)

With Yao Ming's retirement, China moves back from Tier III to Tier IV. After making it to the quarterfinals in 2004 and 2008, China will be fortunate to win a game in London, and should be bounced in group-stage play. Yi Jianlian was the FIBA Asia MVP after delivering 25 points, 16 rebounds and the game-winning free throw in the gold-medal game, but Chairman Yi is no Yao. As always, though, we're excited to see the Dodger, Wang Zhizhi, who should be bringing his lefty stroke to the fourth Olympic Games of his career.

9. TUNISIA (Qualified as: Afrobasket Champion)

Tunisia will be happy just to be in London, and they should be rightly thrilled after knocking off Angola 67-56 in the Afrobasket final, becoming the first African nation other than Angola to make the Olympic basketball competition since 1988.

*****************

IN THE PRE-OLYMPIC QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT (Again, 12 teams for 3 spots)
In 2008, the three teams which emerged were all from Europe, and in 2012, the six teams which likely have a chance to qualify for London consist of four European nations and two from the Americas. In other words, this tournament is something of a joke. At least one, and possibly two, more automatic bids should be awarded to Europe, and any playoffs should be contested head-to-head (a la FIFA qualification playoffs) between teams from Europe and the Americas, only.

We're for the global expansion of basketball as much as anyone, but until more teams from Asia and Africa can consistently compete on the world stage, they do not deserve more bids. It's simply not fair to players who play full club seasons to have to put their bodies on the line for a supplemental, ultimately unnecessary, tournament.

TIER I
Strong contenders

1. RUSSIA (Qualified as: EuroBasket 3rd Place)

2. GREECE (Qualified as: EuroBasket 6th Place)

3. LITHUANIA (Qualified as: EuroBasket 5th Place)

These three European teams are awfully close as favorites for the qualifying tournament, and who ends up playing should be a hugely decisive factor.

With Andrei Kirilenko and Viktor Khryapa back healthy and in action for the first time since the 2008 Olympics, Russia was back near the form they showed in winning the 2007 EuroBasket in surprising fashion. David Blatt might be the best coach in FIBA world basketball. Blatt gets the maximum out of Kirilenko and Khryapa, who are like a pair of FIBA Pippens under his expert deployment, wreaking havoc with smart, athletic, unselfish, versatile play on both ends of the court. If those two play, Russia should be favored to win the qualifying tournament, especially because many believe that FIBA will award the tournament to the highest bidder, and Russia should have the inside track to host based on that criteria.

We place Greece ahead of Lithuania narrowly at no. 2 due to greater upside. And the Greeks were competitive in the 5th-place game (a 73-69 loss) in front of a raucous Lithuanian crowd even with a depleted squad. Vassilis Spanoulis should be back next year, though it's unclear if Sofo Schortsanitis will be. The key for the Greeks could be whether they can coax Dimis Diamantidis out of national-team retirement.

The 5th-place finish at home in the 2011 EuroBasket has to be considered a disappointment for Lithuania, who were widely expected to make the semifinals at worst. When the shots weren't falling in the quarterfinal loss to (FYR) Macedonia, the Lithuanians really seemed to miss having a player who could create his own points the way Linas Kleiza did at the 2010 World Championships, when he averaged 19 points per game to lead Lithuania to a surprising bronze medal (though, to be fair, Lithuania was 2nd in offensive efficiency, and just 13th on defense, for the tournament overall). Kleiza's full recovery from microfracture surgery on his knee is critical for Lithuania, and the continued development of Jonas Valanciunas with all deliberate speed would certainly be helpful as well.

4. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (Qualified as: FIBA Americas 3rd Place)

Make no mistake, we certainly consider the Dominican Republic a strong contender to grab one of the three remaining Olympic qualifying spots. The Dominicans took a big step forward in 2011, nearly qualifying outright at FIBA Americas, as they lost a tough semifinal to Brazil, 83-76. Adding a top-quality coaching staff headed by John Calipari, with respected assistants like Del Harris and Billy Bayno, was a big help.

Most of all, though, they have Al Horford, who was an absolute beast at FIBA Americas (averaged 19-9-3 plus 2 steals and 1 block), and should be the best player at the qualifying tournament. Rugged FIBA Americas revelation Jack Michael Martinez looks like a FIBA Ben Wallace - he led the tournament in rebounding. The Dominicans need better play from NBAers Francisco Garcia and Charlie Villanueva, who shot an atrocious 36% from the floor in Argentina.

TIER II
Decent contenders

5. PUERTO RICO (Qualified as: FIBA Americas 4th Place)

Puerto Rico nearly pulled off the shocker of the qualifying season, losing a FIBA Americas semifinal 81-79 on the road to Argentina in a game that Manu Ginobili called "one of the toughest games I've ever played." If the Puerto Ricans had prevailed, they would have qualified directly for London, and sent Argentina reeling into this tournament. That follows on the heels of their hard-luck slot in 2008, when they were the last team eliminated from this pre-Olympic qualifying tournament, losing the 3rd-place game to Germany.

Led by an experienced FIBA backcourt of Carlos Arroyo and J.J. Barea, P.R. has to be considered at least outside contenders to grab one of the three qualifying spots. It would be helpful if 7-3 P.J. Ramos were to return.

6. (FYR) MACEDONIA (Qualified as: EuroBasket 4th Place)

I think that we here at The Painted Area have made it eminently clear that we love us some Bo McCalebb, about as much as anyone outside Skopje or New Orleans, to be honest. McCalebb had a truly remarkable EuroBasket, averaging a 21-3-4 with 2 steals as he carried (FYR) Macedonia on his back to a stunning 4th-place finish, deservedly earning a First-Team All-EuroBasket nod. (For the record, I agreed with the First-Team selections of Bo, Pau, Parker, Kirilenko and Navarro, though Jay Aych and I both would have given the MVP to Pau instead of La Bomba.)

All that said, I think it's going to be very hard for Macedonia to replicate its run next year. This team is so heavily dependent upon Bo; there is very little other offensive talent. For the tournament, Bo shot 47% from the floor, while the rest of the team shot just 35%, as the likes of Pero "The Macedonian Boozer" Antic jacked up five threes a game to the tune of 29% success.

Overall, (FYR) Macedonia averaged just 69.8 points per 70 possessions, ranking 15th of 24 teams in EuroBasket, and had an overall point differential of just +1.8 points per game. They pulled out four different games by scant two-point margins, and benefited heavily by the draw, which placed them in the much weaker Groups C and F (though it should be noted that (FYR) Macedonia was competitive in all four losses, three of which came vs. top teams Spain and Russia).

Listen, I still consider (FYR) Macedonia one of six teams that's a contender for the three remaining Olympic spots, and again, we love love love us some Bo, I just think it's going to be tough for them to recapture the magic of Lithuania.

TIER III
Just not enough talent

7. NEW ZEALAND (Qualified as: FIBA Oceania LAST Place)

New Zealand certainly had the easiest road to the qualifying tournament, as they didn't even have to win a game to finish 2nd (out of 2) in the ridiculous FIBA Oceania qualifying process. The Tall Blacks are usually a well-drilled team which gets the most out of its talent. At the 2010 World Championships, the Kiwis surprisingly qualified for the Round of 16, and went 3-3 overall, with wins over France, Canada and Lebanon. New Zealand is led by Kirk Penney, who was second in scoring at the 2010 Worlds with 24.7 per game, but ultimately, they are too outmanned to have a strong shot at the top three.

8. VENEZUELA (Qualified as: FIBA Americas 5th Place)

Greivis Vasquez of the Memphis Grizzlies was a stud at FIBA Americas, averaging 19.3 points (2nd in tourney) and 5.8 assists (1st) for the running, gunning Venezuelans, who averaged 94.8 points per game (10 more than anyone else) and earned the final qualifying tournament entry under the guidance of former NBA coach Eric Musselman. Venezuela probably doesn't have enough talent to get into the top 3, but they should regularly be competitive in this tournament.

9. ANGOLA (Qualified as: Afrobasket 2nd Place)

Not only did Angola fail to win the Afrobasket after winning the last six, and 10 of the last 11 - thus making them unlikely to make the Olympics for the first time since 1988 - but they were fortunate to even make this tournament, as they needed a miracle rally from down five with 10 seconds left to beat Cameroon in the quarterfinals. That said, Angola has been a frisky side at recent World Championships, getting out of the group stage and into the Round of 16 in both 2006 and 2010. They have the goods to pull off an upset or two in this tourney, but not enough to make it all the way to London.

TIER III
No chance

10. JORDAN (Qualified as: FIBA Asia 2nd Place)

Jordan narrowly missed its best chance to make the Olympics, when - after knocking off favored Iran in the quarterfinals - their upset bid on the road in China fell just short. Coach Tab Baldwin led New Zealand to a 4th-place finish at the 2002 World Championships - it'll take that kind of miracle for him to lead the Jordanians to the top three in this tournament.

11. NIGERIA (Qualified as: Afrobasket 3rd Place)

If Nigeria can get Hakeem Olajuwon circa 1994-95 to play, they might have a chance to grab a qualifying spot. Might.

12. KOREA (Qualified as: FIBA Asia 3rd Place)

Even though the FIBA Asia 3rd-place slot had little chance to advance any further, I have to say I'm bummed that Korea got it, because it meant that they ended the dreams and the Cinderella run of one of the greatest basketball-loving nations on the planet, the Philippines, who lost the third-place game in a heartbreaker, 70-68. The 4th-place FIBA Asia finish was the best for the Philippines since 1987.

EuroBasket 2011 Final: Spain Repeats as EuroBasket Champ

2011-09-18T19:01:00.000-07:00

EuroBasket Final: Spain 98, France 85

Wasn't quite as one-sided as the 2009 Euro final in which Spain thrashed Serbia, but Spain was in control for most of the 2011 EuroBasket final and became the first team to repeat as Euro champs since Yugoslavia did it 1997.

It was another impressive run through an EuroBasket competition for the Spanish national team. Spain's only loss came to Turkey with Pau sitting with a bum ankle. Spain outscored its opponents by an average of 13.5 ppg and won eight of its 11 games by double figures.

Over the last decade, Spain has been the undisputed king of European ball. This marked the fourth time in five tries that Spain played in the EuroBasket finals. Easily could have been five in a row, but a Dirk Nowitzki last-second shot in the '05 semis denied a Pau-less Spain a trip to the finals. Spain has now finished at least in the top four spots in the last seven EuroBaskets.

France would make mini-runs at different points of the game but one never got the sense that Spain was ever serious in danger of losing control of the game. Simply too much firepower.

It wasn't like France didn't have a good day on the offensive end, it's just that Spain was even more dominant. Spain shot 55.6% from the floor and was successful spreading the touches around again with five players in double figures.

Another international competition, another sterling tournament for Pau Gasol. Pau capped off a great EuroBasket with another sharp all-around performance vs. the French with 17 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and three blocks. Pau added a 3pt. make on Sunday to finish Euro '11 shooting 7-for-11 on 3PA.

Pau finished EuroBasket third in points (20 ppg), third in FG pct. (54%), fourth in rebounds (8.3 rpg), third in blocks (1.7 bpg). Pretty much does this everytime he suits up for Spain. If there were any doubts about his enshrinement into the Naismith Hall of Fame, they should cease forever. (We covered Pau's FIBA accomplishments after Spain's 2009 Euro final win.)

Don't agree with the MVP vote--Pau should have won over Juan Navarro. Pau was more of a factor of both sides of the floor, with an underrated impact defensively once again. Navarro was clutch in the knockout round for Spain, but was a little off at the start of the tourney while Pau was consistent throughout.

This was a big game so that meant Juan Carlos Navarro (27 pts, 5 assts) would most definitely show up. La Bomba's magical shot-making tricks were on display on Sunday with Juan tossing up pull-ups all over the floor (3-for-7 on 3PA). Juan hit them coming off of ball screens or off-ball screens, plus he added a few of his patented off-balance runners. Juan was also clever accentuating contact for 12 free-throw attempts. Once again Juan Carlos (5th in ppg) was one of the top players in a FIBA tournament.

France had trouble guarding the pick-n-roll all tournament and Spain hurt them in ball screen action, particularly with Navarro as the ball-handler. 19 Navarro pick-n-rolls generated 24 points for himself or his teammates (very good rate).

Jose Calderon (17 pts, 4 stls) looked unusually spry today, very aggressive on both ends of the floor, and even got a dunk out of Jose. Jose had multiple buckets in transition, added a few drives in the half-court, a few pull-ups and stripped the ball from Parker a few times.

Rudy Fernandez's kinetic energy was a boon for Spain once again. Rudy (14 pts) flew around for scores on tip-ins, cuts, fast breaks and off-balance jumpers. Rudy's jumper was off over the last few weeks but he contributed nicely in nearly every other aspect of the game. Rudy is a different player when he's allowed to fly around.

Marc Gasol (11 pts) was solid again with a few jumpers and effective plays on rolls. Maybe the most impressive aspect of Marc's play during Euro '11 was his passing, particularly his passing as the roll man. Marc averaged 13.3 ppg, 7.3 rebs and 2 apg, and should be considered for a 2nd team All-Euro selection.

Serge Ibaka only put up four points, but he was a major presence defensively, blocking five shots in 21 minutes. Serge chased down the ball to make multiple blocks flying in long distances (made a tremendous block on Nando De Colo in transition). Serge has added a much-needed dose of athleticism to the frontline and this could come in handy vs. Team USA in the future.

Tony Parker did all he was supposed to do, leading France with 26 points and five assists. Parker once again did damage with his pull-up jumper inside and outside the arc. His improved jumper has been a key reason France's offense has improved over the last few years. Tony ended the tourney as the scoring leader (22 ppg) and fifth in assists (4.4 apg). Tony rightfully earned a All-EuroBasket First-Team nod.

Nic Batum (10 pts) could not replicate his strong semifinal performance vs. Spain. Nic hit a couple spot-up 3pt. attempts but also missed six of his eight 3PA. Nonetheless, Nic had a nice tourney as a reliable second-option for France and would elect him to the All-EuroBasket Second Team.

Boris Diaw (12 pts, 7 assts, 4 rebs) decided to show up on Sunday, particularly looking unusally inspired in the 2nd half. Boris was effective driving the ball for his own scores or setting up his teammates. Diaw dropped some sweet dimes and knocked down two 3-pointers.

Joakim Noah (11 pts, 8 rebs) might have had his best offensive display on Sunday, finishing off a few rolls and banging home two mid-range jumpers. Noah's inaugural campaign with the French national team was solid as he brought boards and defense every game.

France should be a contender for at least the bronze medal next summer. After years of inconsistent half-court execution, the offense seems to be at a level that can allow France to hang with the big boys.

Spain heads into the 2012 Olympics as Team USA's main challenger. Next year's team could be more formidable than the 2008 version, thanks to addition of Ibaka and the improvement of Marc. In a one-game scenario, Spain definitely has the goods to upset Team USA.

EuroBasket 2011 Finals Preview: Spain vs. France

2011-09-17T00:40:00.000-07:00

*--Come join at Daily Dime Live as we chat about the Bronze & Gold Medal games starting at 10 AM EST. Both the Bronze medal game, (FYR) Macedonia vs. Russia, and the Gold medal game, France vs. Spain, can be viewed at ESPN3.com in the U.S.

EuroBasket Final: Spain vs. France

Spain returns to the EuroBasket final for the third straight time and looks to defend its '09 title. This is France's first appearance in the EuroBasket final since 1949 (lost to Egypt) and Les Bleus is looking for their first Euro title ever. Spain has been in four of the last five Euro finals. Easily could have been five in a row, but a Dirk last-second shot in the '05 semis denied a Pau-less Spain a trip to the finals.

Won't waste time rehashing the second-round matchup between these teams as France sat Parker and Noah. Would rather look at a game that mattered between these two teams when Pau Gasol played. Last time these two met in the EuroBasket knockout rounds, Spain overwhelmed a previously unbeaten France team in the 2009 quarterfinals, 86-66.

In that game, Spain's scrambling defense gave France major issues, forcing bad passes all over the court. Spain had little concern for France's perimeter-shooting ability. The Gasol bros. paid very little attention to the French bigs. Spain's perimeter players would pressure France, and even overplay sometimes, knowing that the ballhandlers would be met by bigs, who were basically zoning up the painted area.

This would often force the ballhandlers to kick the ball out where Spain had two-to-three perimeter guys (Rubio, Rudy, Navarro) ready to pounce on these passes like a cornerback.

Anywhere Tony Parker went with the ball, extra Spanish defenders followed. Parker rarely had easy access to the rim. Actually, anytime the ball went below the free-throw line, you had extra Spanish bodies flocking to the ball. This forced the French ball-handlers to pass the ball out under duress, often leading to turnovers (19 French TOs). Spain had 13 steals, six of which belonged to Rudy Fernandez.

Pau chewed up the French interior defense in the '09 quarterfinal, scoring 28 points on 11-of-13 and was a major factor in fouling out Ronny Turiaf and Ali Traore in rapid time. Of course, the big difference for France this time around is that they have the services of Joakim Noah. Noah hasn't been much to look at offensively--has had a rough time finishing off shots. But he does give France a better chance at guarding the interior this time around.

The dilemma for France is how they match up with the Gasol bros. If Noah guards Marc, that leaves Boris Diaw on Pau. Not good times. If you reverse assignments, then Marc can go to town on Diaw. And Ali Traore is not much help as he's not much of a defender.

Spain can punish a defense in so many ways. Pau's on target for his second consecutive EuroBasket MVP, averaging 20.4 ppg on 54%, 8 rpg, 1.6 bpg & 1 spg. Meanwhile, Juan Carlos Navarro has been lethal with 61 points in the last two knockout games. After starting the tourney slightly off on his 2PA, has raised his overall shooting pct. to 46.6% (45% on 3PA).

Marc has done a good job all tourney acting as a pressure release in the middle of the floor for Spain's offense. Marc worked well with Serge Ibaka in the semifinal, making a few sweet dimes off of rolls to a cutting Ibaka. Marc is another deadly post-up option next to Pau.

Serge Ibaka has been effective in limited minutes, cutting, blocking shots and boarding. Rudy Fernandez has not been quite as good as he has been over the last few summers (only 30% on 3PA), but his frenetic style on both ends has been a positive for Spain.

Also another problem for France's defense: how do you contain Juan Navarro? Juan has been in vintage "La Bomba" mode over the last few games, lighting up Macedonia for 35 and Slovenia for 26. When Navarro gets into his NBA JAM "ON FIRE" zone he's nearly unstoppable. Just have to expect the barrage.

He's so good at hitting off-balance shots or shots when he's not even squared up. So hard to account for him when he's coming off screens and catch-n-shooting because he can launch his shot immediately going over either shoulder.

France will likely give Nic Batum some reps on La Bomba, hoping his length can effect Juan Carlos. But not sure how well this will work as Batum could be run ragged through a constant stream of screens, which could zap his energy for offense. Think you need to rotate defenders on Juan, and use Mickael Gelabale as well.

France is coming off an impressive victory in which they made a normally stout Russian defense look very ordinary. After years being held back by a ragged half-court offense, France has been as good offensively as they've ever been.

Tony Parker has been one of the most dominant players in the field and if France somehow pulls off the upset, he will likely be awarded the MVP trophy. Parker has been shredding defenses and has been dangerous pulling up in the mid-range.

The ball-handler in France's pick-n-roll action (primarily Parker) has been effective scoring points all tournament, though France's roll game has been a non-factor. This might be good news for Spain as its pick-n-roll defense has been very good, especially curtailing the scoring of the ball-handler.

Looking at the way Spain guarded Bo McCalebb in the semis might give some insight into how they plan to play Parker, as McCalebb plays with a similar style as Parker. Spain made a concerted effort to go underneath Bo ball screens most of the time, which seemed to be the right strategy. Never really hedged hard with their bigs.

Nic Batum has been a valuable second option for France, averaging 14 ppg. NIc has shot the ball much better than he did over the last year--56% overall, 44% on 3PA--and has hit some big jumpers in the half-court and in transition over the last few games. Watch for down screens for Batum on the left side. France has gotten a lot of mileage curling Nic into the lane. Also, Batum loves to drive the baseline and Spain needs to shade him into the painted area.

Spain will also need to account for Nando De Colo when he gets into the game. Nando began Euro '11 averaging only 2.2 ppg through the first six games but then ignited to average 14 ppg on 55% shooting over the last four games. De Colo will handle the ball some and is a capable pull-up shooter. Actually, more reliable shooting off the dribble than with feet set.

Reserve center Ali Traore has been a key asset off the bench for France, especially over the last few games. Funny how Traore was originally cut from the training-camp roster then was asked back to the team after Turiaf was injured. Not really sure why he was cut in the first place, as he is one of France's better interior scorers. Likes to go with a lefty hook and can hit the foul-line jumper. Need to force him to go over his left shoulder, few countermoves going over his right shoulder.

France has been one of the more dangerous teams in transition in the tourney. But Spain is the one team that France might not want lure into an up-tempo game. Spain hurt France badly in '09 by pressuring the ball, getting steals and getting out in transition. Spain has multiple guys who like to get out on the break.

France is playing some of its best ball in years and seems to be confident in its abilities to hang with Spain. But Spain's firepower is superior and they can attack the opposition inside and out. Even with Noah, Spain should be able to hurt Les Bleus in the interior.

Just don't see a way France's defense can account for all of Spain's options, while France only has two consistent offensive options in Parker and Batum. I don't think Spain will crush France like they did with Serbia in the 2009 final, but I expect Spain to get its second Euro gold in a row with relative ease.

EuroBasket 2011 Quarters Analysis: Russia & France Win To Set Up Semifinal Matchup

2011-09-16T02:08:00.000-07:00

RUSSIA 77, SERBIA 67

The close contest that was anticipated never materialized as Russia kept Serbia from ever getting in sync.

Extra possessions were a key to Russia's victory as both teams shot roughly the same percentage from the floor and behind the 3pt. line. 12 Russian steals helped lead to a total of 19 Serbian turnovers while Russia had 13 TOs. Russia also stole some more possessions off the backboards. Both teams grabbed 23 defensive boards but Russia secured 14 offensive boards to Serbia's five offensive boards.

Russia's aggressive defense was once again a factor, taking key Serbs out of their comfort zones. Russia never stayed with any specific defensive alignment for too long, which kept Serbia from getting too comfortable. This is a coach David Blatt trademark. Awesome at mixing up his defensive looks.

Saw a little bit of a traditional matchup zone then saw some of Russia's zone with defenders moving out of their area. Threw some three-quarter-court presses at Serbia during different stretches of the game. The press seemed to give Serbia some issues. Mentioned this many times before, but again want to stress how well Russia swarms to the ball. And Russians also stripped the ball multiple times.

Russia never let Milos Teodosic pick them apart with his passing (only managed three assists). They threw different defenders on Milos and often guys just as tall as him. Russia did a good job harassing him up high and extra help was always lurking when he tried to probe. Milos usually has the size advantage at PG, but not so much today.

Teodosic did end with 20 points but it came on 6-of-15 shooting and 2-for-10 on 3PA. Milos was a big reason for Serbia's turnover troubles--coughed up nine TOs, stripped of the ball a few times. Milos has shot the ball way below his capabilities in this tourney and has turned the ball over more than normal.

Russia got nice contributions from nearly the whole roster once again. Russia did a nice job utilizing the cutting action of their offense and they found the open man well. Have done a good job at Euro '11 scoring off cuts.

Andrei Kirilenko was so active all over the floor, jumping passing lanes, crashing the boards and tracking to the ball on defense. Kirienko led the Russians with 14 points, plenty coming at the foul line (8-of-9), which came from aggressive play. Andrei had a vintage varied stat line: 14 pts, 11 rebs (6 off.), 6 assts, 4 stls & 2 blks.

Like Kirilenko, Vik Khryapa brought his all-around game to the party, putting up 11 pts, 5 rebs, 4 assts, & 2 stls. Also like Kirilenko, Khryapa made some nice dishes to cutters.

Timo Mozgov managed to play only 21 minutes because of five fouls but Timo was productive, especially in the first quarter. Timo scored all of his eight points in the 1st (mostly on rolls) and altered a few shots early as well.

Alexey Shved continued his strong play for Russia with 10 points and five assists. Shved did a great job getting to the rim, particularly in transition (had a nice coast-to-coast drive). Also made some soft drop passes off of pick-n-roll action.

Andrey Vorontsevich (11 pts on 5-of-7 in 16 mins.) had another productive performance off the bench, working off the ball well and splashing in a few jumpers.

One issue that continues to plague the Russians: free throws. Russia shot 8-for-15 from the line and now stands at 62% for EuroBasket (dead last). Definitely something to be concerned about going into the semifinal vs. France, which currently shoots 81% on FT (2nd best).

Serbia made the wise decision to get the ball to Nenad Krstic more in the 2nd half, especially when Mozgov was out of the game. Nenad (13 pts, 5 rebs) took advantage of Russia's lack of a reserve center and did a good job forcing fouls around the basket and got most of his points at the FT line (9-of-10).

Serbia still has a meaningful game left as they play Greece tomorrow for the last pre-Olympic qualifying tournament bid. If Serbia wins, there is a good chance they will get to host the pre-Olympic tourney next summer.

FRANCE 64, GREECE 56

A fairly non-descript game for most of the game that was hard to keep interest in--incredibly dull game. Game got somewhat more interesting in the 4th when France's offense started to pick up.

Greece did a fine job dialing down the tempo and frustrating the French offense for most of the game. Greece led the entire game up until France took its first lead with 8:00 left in the 4th. France finally found rhythm on offense to outscore Greece 24-13 in the final stanza to take the victory.

Nic Batum was fairly quiet for most of the game, but came through big in the 4th. Nic scored 10 of his 15 points in the quarter, including two 3PA. Batum was primarily responsible for the key sequence of the game. Batum made big plays on three consecutive possessions with under two minutes left:

With 1:50 left, Batum came off a down screen on the left side and made a 17-footer to push the French lead to 58-54. France has been successful all tourney curling Nic into the lane off that left-side screen.

On the ensuing defensive possession, Batum snuffed out a Nick Calathes drive at the basket.

Then Nic wentaway from a left-side screen to finish with a short baseline runner to give France a 60-54 lead with 1:15 left.

Tony Parker (18 pts, 5 rebs, 3 assts, 4 TOs) probably had his weakest game of the tourney, shooting 7-for-18 overall and never getting into a flow until he dropped eight points in the 4th. Parker made a couple of mid-range jumpers off of pick-n-roll and made a nifty reverse lay-in of a ball screen as well in the final quarter.

Nando De Colo gave France a much needed boost off the bench late in the 1st quarter. De Colo scored 10 points in a four-minute span in the late 1st/early 2nd. Third game in a row that De Colo scored in double figures after averaging 2.2 ppg over the first six games. Nando hit a couple pull-up jumpers and knocked down two 3PA. Also added a sweet drive in transition.

Though Greece gave up 24 points in the 4th, can't really fault defensive effort as a whole. Did a nice job minimizing France's potent transition game. The Greek bigs were sloughed off in the lane all game, showing no respect for Noah. Rarely let Parker get deep penetration. They were willing to help off shooters to help on Parker's penetration attempts, and this worked for most of the game. Thought they made a few poor decisions guarding Parker ball screens (going over the top or getting hung up too much).

Greece's failure to hold the lead can be blamed mostly on its punchless offense. Greece really struggled to create much separation from French defenders all game and Bouroussis is the only player who occasionally needed double-team help.

It was clearly obvious in this game that Greece desperately needed a capable shot-creator like Vassilis Spanoulis or Dimis Diamantidis. Not surprisingly, Greece's offense has been subpar all tourney without their key options and they connected on only 34% of their shots vs. France.

Giannis Bourousis (17 pts, 11 rebs) was the only Greek player to have much impact on the offensive end. Greece went through Giannis in the post often, where he scored on a few turnarounds and drew fouls. Bourousis also did a nice job rolling and cutting to the basket.

Greece goes on to face Serbia on Friday to determine the final pre-Olympic bid out of Europe.

EuroBasket 2011 Quarters Analysis: Macedonia Stuns Lithuania; Spain Cruises to Semis

2011-09-15T03:39:00.000-07:00

(FYR) MACEDONIA 67, LITHUANIA 65

Well, we got our big upset of this EuroBasket. (FYR) Macedonia continues to be the feel-good hit of the summer as they stunned Lithuania in front of its rabid home crowd.

It's a crushing loss for Lithuania and its fans--might go down as the worst loss in Lithuanian national-team history (I'd put it up there with the loss to Spain at Euro '99).

Lithuania really did give this game away. Lithuania committed two crushing turnovers in the last minute when they had a 65-63 lead each possession. And both were committed by experienced veterans.

Saras Jasikevicius lost the ball after dribbling off a high pick-n-roll and then seemed to slip with 0:35 left. Couldn't tell if Saras tripped over his own feet or if he was nudged by the hedging Macedonian big.

On the ensuing possession, Macedonia's Bo McCalebb missed a lay-in that would have tied the game at 65 with under 24 seconds left. Then Darius Songaila made a colossal error.

Darius secured McCalebb's miss with 20 seconds left and instead of waiting for someone to foul him or make a safe pass to a guard, he proceeded to make a pass across the lane that was congested. Macedonia scooped up the errant pass, had Lithuania scrambling to reset their defense, and eventually found Vlado Ilievski wide open for a game-winning 3-pointer with 10 seconds left.

Songaila's pass might go down as the biggest blunder in Lithuanian national-team history. For American fans, think of it as the Lithuanian version of the Joe Pisarcik fumble in the NFL (Miracle at the Meadowlands).

Kind of amazing Macedonia won this game shooting 31% from the floor. But then again, they came into this game shooting 38% through eight games.

Extra possessions were huge for Macedonia and they minimized the impact of the poor shooting numbers. We mentioned in our quarterfinals preview to keep an eye on the turnover disparity in this game. Macedonia came into this game with a terrific -6.3 TOpg margin and they were at -6 in this game.

Macedonia did not generate as many steals as they normally do (five steals), but they kept their turnovers to a minimum (eight TOs). This is something they've been doing the whole EuroBasket. They came into the game averaging only 10.5 TOpg, lowest of any team in the knockout round.

Macedonia's work on the glass garnered some extra possessions as well. Grabbed 18 offensive boards to Lithuania's 32 defensive boards (a very good 36% offensive reb. pct.) which led to 21 second-chance points.

Who would have imagined Macedonia would out-shoot Lithuania from behind the arc? Now, Macedonia's 28% 3pt. pct. was not very good but Macedonia did hit nine 3PA while Lithuania made only 2-of-15 from behind the arc. Lithuania came into this game leading Euro '11 in 3pt. shooting at 45%.

Macedonia's collective defensive effort was top-notch (held Lithuania to 20 points below its average ppg). Their help and recovery was on point all game--rotations on the backline were tight. They stunted Lithuania's vaunted pick-n-roll action. Their bigs hedged hard and Macedonia rarely ever got hurt by the roller. Plus, they challenged Lithuania at the 3pt. line. Macedonia never let the Lithuanian offense establish any type of rhythm.

Wasn't Bo McCalebb's best all-around game of the tourney (23 pts on 8-of-20, 2 assists) , but his speed off the dribble caused problems for the defense. We mentioned in our preview that McCalebb is very hard to guard on ball screens because he's not only dangerous dribble off the pick but also splitting and going away from the screen. And he hurt Lithuania a few times by splitting and going opposite the screen today.

Bo had two big drives in the last two minutes of the game that help Macedonia get within a bucket, including one where he shook Rimas Kaukenas by using a cross-over to set up a spin move for a left hand lay-in to cut the lead to two points with 1:00 remaining.

PF Pero Antic, as usual, threw up multiple shots with defenders right in his face which led to another poor shooting day (2-for-10). But he was clutch on the defensive end all game, providing great help and disrupting Lithuania's pick-n-roll with hard shows. Antic's help defense led directly to two Valanciunas turnovers.

SF Vojdan Stojanovski (15 pts) came into the game shooting 30.7% from behind the arc but he was clutch today, hitting all five of his 3PA. Besides the game-winning 3pt. make, SG Vlado Ilievski hit a couple more jumpers to end the game with 12 points.

Center Peja Samardziski was a monster on the offensive glass with five offensive boards and it seems like he should been credited for more. Peja also did a good job showing on pick-n-roll.

Lithuania point-guard tandem of Saras Jasikevicius and Mantas Kalnietis were not necessarily bad, but they never could get Lithuania's offense humming like it normally does. Kalnietis (9 pts, 9 rebs, 4 assts) was aggressive in spots taking the ball to the rim. Saras (7 pts, 5 assts, 5rebs) created some good looks for his team but never really picked apart the defense in the pick-n-roll and continued to cough up the ball (4 TOs).

Besides the awful pass, Darius Songaila (12 pts) did make some nice contributions on the offensive end, scoring on a few hook shots and a few drives. Robertas Javtokas gave Lithuania an unlikely boost on offense leading the team with 13 pts on 6-of-6.

Jonas Valanciunas (3 pts, 6 rebs, 5 TOs) had a forgettable game that was plagued by turnovers. Three of his five TOs came on cuts or rolls where the defense impeded his move and he shuffled his feet.

Lithuania needs to get over this crushing loss quickly because they have an important placement game vs. Slovenia on Thursday. The winner gets a bid to the Pre-Olympic tourney, and the loser is out of Olympic qualification.

As great as Macedonia's overachieving run through EuroBasket has been, it likely ends on Friday vs. Spain. They will be a massive underdog and I don't see a way they can survive vs. Spain if they shoot their usual sub-40% from the floor. Regardless, Macedonia has now earned a very surprising spot in the pre-Olympic qualifying tournament at worst.

SPAIN 86, SLOVENIA 64

It appeared early that Slovenia was going to make this game competitive when they started the game looking sharp. But that was just a tease. Spain flicked the switch to "eviscerate mode" at the start of the 2nd quarter and took control of the game.

After Slovenia took a 23-16 lead after one quarter, Spain outscored Slovenia 70-41 for the rest of the game. The game was essentially over after the 3rd quarter.

Spain started to take control of this game by holding Slovenia to eight points in the 2nd quarter. Then they battered Slovenia after the halftime break, outscoring Slovenia 36-14 in the 3rd.

Juan Navarro led the assault in the 3rd by scoring 17 of his 26 points in the quarter. Juan Carlos went into vintage La Bomba mode by banging jumpers off of screens, draining spot-ups and tossing up his patented floater 4-5 times. It's fun to watch when Juan starts scurrying around and gets into his lethally-hot NBA JAM-type zone.

Pau Gasol (19 pts, 16 rebs, 3 blks, 2 stls) had a nice all-around game scoring on hooks, turnarounds, drives and drop-steps. Pau changed shots at the rim and cleared the defensive glass.

One minor issue for Spain is the health of Jose Calderon. Calderon (9 pts, 6 rebs, 3 assts, 3 stls) was having a solid game until he came down on the defender's foot after making a 3-pointer.

If Slovenia was going to have any chance in this game, they were going to need to perform much better on the offensive end than they had at anytime in this tourney. They didn't. Slovenia had been underachieving badly on offense for the entire tournament and this game was no different, as they shot 35% overall. Plus they continued to be woeful from behind the arc--6-of-27 on 3PA.

Goran Dragic finally had a halfway decent-game but by the time he started to heat up in the 3rd quarter, the game was out of reach. Goran scored most of his 14 pts when Spain was on cruise control.

Thought we were going to have an interesting matchup between Pau Gasol and Erazem Lorbek when both players came out sharp in the first quarter. But Lorbek scored all of his seven points in the first five minutes of the game and was non-existent the rest of the game.

Slovenia still has something to play for in the loser's bracket. Their Thursday matchup vs. Lithuania will determine one of the last two bids for the Pre-Olympic tourney.

Spain moves on to a matchup with Macedonia in the semis. Expect Macedonia to be brought back down to reality on Friday.

Could Bo McCalebb Have Helped the Lakers or the Magic?

2011-09-14T07:10:00.000-07:00

Also on The Painted Area:
• EuroBasket Quarters Preview: ESP-SLO/LTU-MKD|RUS-SRB/FRA-GRE
• FIBA Americas Musings: Argentina, Canada & more

Bo McCalebb, a New Orleanian playing as a naturalized citizen of the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia, has led his team to a 6-2 record in the tournament and a surprise berth in the quarterfinals, where they have the unenviable task of trying to knock off the host Lithuanians, coming up in just a little bit.

The top six scorers at EuroBasket 2011 include prominent NBA names Gasol, Nowitzki, Parker, Deng, Bargnani... and McCalebb. Indeed, the speedy point guard has been a breakout star of EuroBasket 2011, possibly the best guard in the tournament other than Parker, and now his name is featured in a headline on this site for the third time in a week.

I would say that McCalebb is a revelation, but he's actually far from that. Rather, he broke out as a pro in the 2009-10 season as a second team All-Euroleague player, leading Partizan Belgrade to a surprise appearance in the Euroleague Final Four (Jan Vesely was a teammate). On that big stage, McCalebb had 21 points, 4 assists and 4 steals in 40 minutes as Partizan nearly shocked powerful Olympiacos in the semifinals.

In 2010-11, McCalebb made a return appearance to the Euroleague Final Four with Montepaschi Siena, though his season was hampered by a foot injury.

Here are what McCalebb's Euroleague stats look like, translated into NBA per-36 minute numbers using John Hollinger's translations. (The first line are Bo's actual stats, second line are his translated NBA stats.):

2009-10 Partizan Belgrade

MIN,    PTS, REB, AST,  FG%,  PER  
30.1,  13.4, 2.9, 3.4, 45.7, 17.7
NBA36, 12.0, 4.1, 5.4, 40.2, 12.4

2010-11 Montepaschi Siena

MIN,    PTS, REB, AST,  FG%,  PER  
20.8,  11.5, 2.0, 2.1, 55.0, 28.3
NBA36, 14.9, 4.1, 4.7, 48.4, 19.8

A few notes for further context on the numbers:
- The reason for the big difference in FG% in the two seasons was three-pointers. Bo shot only 23.2% in '09-10, up to 43.8% in '10-11. In reality, the truth is probably somewhere in between - Bo's 34.4% mark on threes at EuroBasket is probably a more accurate gauge of his outside shooting, which is definitely not a strength.

But what's notable to me is that McCalebb's two-point shooting percentages are consistently strong - those are often a sign of athleticism which can translate to the NBA. Bo made 53% of his twos in '09-10, 57% in '10-11, plus a stunning 66% in the weaker comp of Italian League play, as well as 51% at EuroBasket so far.

- Steals are often another marker of athleticism, and McCalebb always has strong numbers here, averaging 2.0 in 30 minutes in '09-10, and 1.8 in 21 minutes in '10-11. At EuroBasket, he's third in this category with 2.3 steals per game, behind only Andrei Kirilenko and Nic Batum.

- McCalebb was off to a fantastic start in Euroleague play in 2010-11 before his injury. In the 10-game "regular season", Bo played 25.7 minutes per game, averaging 15.5 points on 58% FG, including 60% on twos and 47% on threes.

Siena played pretty good competition during this time. In particular, Bo torched powerful FC Barcelona with 41 points in two games on 16-23 FG, and Siena split the two contests, winning by nine at home and losing by one in Barcelona.

*********************************

At this point, I have no doubt that Bo McCalebb is an NBA-quality player. Not saying he's a star or even a starter, but I definitely think he could be a rotation player who could make an impact. Of course, as a role player, so much is dependent upon finding the right fit with a team which has a need for and an understanding of the player's skills.

But if the fit is there... well, take a look at the NBA in 2010-11. As much as teams like the Heat and the Lakers dominated the conversation, there was actually a lot of parity on top - the difference among the top 8-10 teams proved to be quite small. Role players helped make key differences all over the league, including imports from European leagues who fit just right like Gary Neal in San Antonio and Omer Asik in Chicago.

I think Bo McCalebb might have been a difference-maker in 2010-11 precisely because he offered what the Lakers and the Magic desperately needed: athleticism and creativity off the dribble from the perimeter.

McCalebb was sitting there as a 25-year-old free agent available to the basketball world in the summer of 2010 when L.A. and Orlando made what have proven to be disastrous signings to fill their backup point-guard slots. L.A. signed 30-year-old Steve Blake to a 4-year/$16 million contract, while Orlando inked 28-year-old Chris Duhon to a 4-year/$15 million pact.

Blake posted the worst PER in the league (7.6) of any player who played 750+ minutes, and the Lakers actually missed the change-of-pace that Jordan Farmar could occasionally give them because Blake was utterly unable to create anything off the dribble, making just 32.7% of his two-point attempts. You're telling me the Lakers wouldn't have been better off countering J.J. Barea with McCalebb rather than Blake? I'm convinced the Lakers would have been better off signing McCalebb, especially considering Blake is going to stay in decline.

At least the Lakers could put Blake out on the court. Duhon was so bad (5.7 PER in 15 mpg in 51 games) that Orlando not only had to relegate him to the outer reaches of the bench, but he also played into the need to make the franchise-crushing trade which brought the brutal contracts of declining Gilbert Arenas and Hedo Turkoglu to town while shipping out a prime trade asset in Marcin Gortat.

Certainly, Gortat would have had a tough time establishing the value that he did in averaging a 15-10 for Phoenix after the All-Star break, but quality size is at such a premium in the league that I think Gortat, with his reasonable contract, would be an attractive trade piece this summer (or winter, I suppose, unfortunately), when there are several intriguing players on the market - certainly players far better than Arenas and Turkoglu looking into the future.

Instead, the Magic are desperate to make a big move to keep Dwight Howard happy, but they have nothing else that anybody wants. Orlando's ship has sailed, and they are dead in the water.

Where would the Magic be if they had simply signed a different Louisianan? McCalebb is clearly better than Duhon, and I believe that he's also better than the Gilbert Arenas of today and tomorrow. And, obviously, cheaper, too.

Would the Lakers or the Magic have won the 2010-11 NBA championship if they'd signed Bo McCalebb instead of the Blake/Duhon disasters? I mean, I'm not trying to go that far and oversell Bo. But I do believe that the Magic organization would be in a healthier place if they'd done so, and held off on their trades.

And c'mon, another similar guard we've seen in FIBA play, J.J. Barea, was a legitimate difference-maker in the 2011 Playoffs, certainly in the Mavs-Lakers series. After what we've seen from McCalebb in the EuroBasket and in the Euroleague, you think that he couldn't have provided that same kind of boost?

I'm not saying the Lakers would have beaten Dallas with Bo, but I believe the Mavericks won their NBA title by leaving no stone unturned in trying to find every possible edge they could, ultimately winning it all with a narrow margin for error. By keeping their eyes closed to McCalebb, the Lakers left a stone unturned, and they're stuck with slow Steve Blake for three years, and still desperate for an athletic young player who can create shots off the dribble from the perimeter.

Also on The Painted Area:
• EuroBasket Quarters Preview: ESP-SLO/LTU-MKD|RUS-SRB/FRA-GRE
• FIBA Americas Musings: Argentina, Canada & more

EuroBasket 2011 Quarterfinals Preview (Part II): Russia-Serbia, France-Greece

2011-09-14T02:42:00.000-07:00

We previewed the Wednesday quarterfinals matchups (Spain-Slovenia & (FYR) Macedonia-Lithuania) on Monday. Today we look at Thursday's quarterfinals with Russia vs. Serbia and France vs. Greece.

(Both games can be viewed at ESPN3.com.)

RUSSIA (F-1) vs. SERBIA (E-4)

Probably the most anticipated game of the quarterfinals between two closely-matched teams. Should be a tightly-contested game that features arguably the two best coaches in EuroBasket, Serbia's Dusan Ivkovic and Russia's David Blatt.

Should be interesting to see what type of adjustments each of these coaches have cooked up for the opposition. Two of the best tactical minds in the field.

Both teams are deep and both have good size at each position. Would say Russia has the advantage athletically.

Russia comes into the game 8-0, but did need two game-winning buzzer-beating jumpers by Sergey Monya to stay undefeated. Serbia is 5-3, but those losses came to Spain, France and Lithuania. Russia has not played the level of competition Serbia has.

Russia's defense has been in fine form as usual and David Blatt has used his roster well, getting contributions from nearly everyone. The Russians leads the field in points allowed, 63.6 ppg, and points per possession, 63.5 per 70 poss, and are second in defensive FG pct, 40.2%.

You don't get easy shots against this team--they challenge everything. Russia swarms to the ball when it gets 10 feet & in. Their backline help is always superb. Then you have to be careful because Russia has someone coming from behind to change your shot while you're being held up by the interior help. Multiple long-armed athletes pounce on the man with the ball.

Blatt's a great bench coach adept at in-game adjustments. Expect Blatt to implement different types of zones, particularly a shape-shifting matchup zone where defenders will move out of their designated areas.

This year's Russian offense might be the best ever under Blatt. They are currently shooting 49% overall (2nd best). But they hurt themselves a bit on the offensive end by struggling at the FT line (62%). This was a sore spot last year as well.

Russia makes up for its lack of creative shot-makers by creating openings using back cuts, baseline cuts and back screens in Blatt's Princeton-inspired sets. Russia gets a decent chunk of their points off of cuts. Their spacing is usually good and they generally keep the basket area open. The ball movement is crisp.

The forward rotation of Andrei Kirilenko, Vik Khryapa, Sergey Monya and Andrey Vorontsevich is one of the best in field. All are 6-9 athletes who can play multiple positions, pass, rebound and defend.

All the forwards are great help defenders. Kirilenko and Khryapa will often be given free reign to float around on defense like free safeties.

Kirilenko (14 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2 apg) has been all over the floor on both ends, cutting off the ball, crashing the offensive glass, changing shots and jumping passing lanes (his 2.8 steals/game leads Euro '11). Kirilenko will post up some as well.

As usual, Vik Khryapa (7.4 ppg, 5.3 apg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 spg) has been an all-purpose threat defending multiple positions, rebounding and passing. Khryapa often functions as a de facto point-forward and his entry passing to cutters is tight.

SG Vitali Fridzon (10.5 ppg) has been Russia's best pure shooter over the last few years and this year is no different, as he's been smoking from deep--58.6% on 3PA. Russia likes to curl Fridzon off of pin-downs.

Sergey Monya is Russia's other reliable outside shooter (he's been really reliable at the end of games with two game-winning buzzer-beaters already). Reserve forward Andrey Vorontsevich has been effective in limited minutes crashing the glass.

Timo Mozgov (9.4 ppg on 65% FG, 3.8 rpg, 1.4 bpg) has not been quite as good as he was at Euro '09, but he's been solid. Timo has been effective cutting or rolling to the rim and will post up a bit, but he's had trouble with TOs down low. Has kept his fouls in check (for him) and Russia needs him to keep them down, as he's the only true center on the roster.

Russia hasn't gotten great play from its PGs, but at least they have kept their turnovers to a minimum. Blatt has put more faith in combo guard Alexey Shved (9 ppg, 3 apg) this summer, allowing him to run the offense some. Combo guard Sergey Bykov has thankfully handled the ball less and has somehow kept his ridiculous TOs down.

Serbia has been pretty solid on the offensive end, averaging 81 ppg, and 76.5 points per 70 possessions, on 46% shooting. But there have been a few more lulls in their play this summer as opposed to last summer. Not quite getting enough contributions from some of their role players like they did the previous two summers.

Next to Jasikevicius, Milos Teodosic (12 ppg, 6.4 apg) has been the most creative passer in the tourney. Milos generates so much offense for his team off the dribble. So good at waiting for better passing angles to develop.

But Milos has not been shooting the ball as well as he can (35% overall, 31% on 3PA), and it has hurt Serbia's effectiveness somewhat. Also, Milos' decision-making has been a bit sketchy, as he's been chucking up some bad shots and forcing bad passes. But Milos has proven he's a dangerous shooter in the past and his shooting heroics in the '09 semis put Serbia in the finals.

Nenad Krstic is having another strong FIBA tourney leading Serbia in scoring (16 ppg on 61%). Nenad will get his fair share of post touches where he has been effective with hooks. Nenad will be used a popper and a roller as well.

Forward Dusko Savanovic has been a terrific third-option for Serbia, pitching in 14.6 ppg on 53.7%. Dusko uses smarts, good ball-handling and sharp footwork to make up for poor physical attributes. Savanovic is very crafty getting into shots in the mid-range and finds ways to sneak to the rim. Serbia will run Dusko off screens and post him.

SF Marko Keselj has been a deadly spot-up threat (54.5% on 3PA) for the second straight year, plus he's clever moving to open spots. Keselj and Savanovic have been the only consistent deep shooters for Serbia. They need Teodosic and Alex Rasic to step up their shooting.

One of the strengths for Serbia over the last few years has been a stout team defense. But for whatever reason, Serbia's defense has fallen off to a degree this summer. Have not guarded the pick-n-roll all that well and are allowing their opponents to shoot 46.4% from the field. Need to get this rectified pronto.

Extremely hard to pick a winner in this one, but leaning toward Russia. You can count on their defense every game, can't say the same for Serbia. They can rotate four different forwards on Savanovic who can give him trouble and take him out of the game. Keep an eye on the FT line as Russia is subpar and Serbia is solid. Should be a dandy.

FRANCE (E-2) vs. GREECE (F-3)

Some might have France already penciled into the semis, but Greece has the goods to challenge France. Greece is missing some of its top players but they have meshed together nicely and have regained their defensive swagger.

Greece knew they wouldn't generate points as easily without Vassilis Spanoulis and Sofo Schortsanitis around. So they made a concerted effort to get back to their old grind-it-out, defense-first ways. And Greece has been one of the top defensive units at EuroBasket. They are currently holding opponents to 66 ppg (5th best) and 68 points per 70 possessions (6th) on 40.3% shooting (3rd).

Those are former Coach Giannakis-era numbers. Keeping the scores in the low-70s/mid-60s. Though this year's team doesn't generate quite the number of turnovers that those mid-2000s Hellas teams did. Like Russia, Greek players help each other and contest shots well.

After years of ragged half-court offensive play, France has been successful in this EuroBasket playing some of the best offensive ball they've ever played. They are currently shooting 48.7% overall (3rd best) and putting 81 ppg and 77 points per 70 possessions on the board (both 4th best).

Tony Parker has led France by abusing every defense he's come in contact with over the last two weeks. Parker has been getting anywhere he wants on the court either in pick-n-roll or iso action. Parker is the top scorer left in the tourney (22.3 ppg). But Tony's 3pt. shot has been way off (27%).

Why teams have continued to pick up Parker up high, and failed to go underneath Parker ball screens, not sure. It's been a bit maddening. You want to keep Parker from turning the corner and living in the lane at all costs. And a zone or sagging man can best prevent Parker from shredding your defense.

Hopefully Greece has watched how France's opponents have tried to guard Tony, then do the opposite. Saw too many times where the defender was coming out 25+ feet to meet Tony. If you choose to go over the screen with Parker, your bigs better show hard to string out Parker laterally toward the sideline.

After starting the tourney shooting well, France's 3pt. shooting has slowly crept back toward reality--currently shooting 34.5% on 3PA. And we still think this is the area that other teams need to expose when preparing their game plan for defending France.

We've beaten this into the ground before but the m.o. vs. France still has to be to pack the paint and force the French to beat you over the top. They've improved their collective shooting ability over the last few years but they are still a team that you test. Mickael Gelabale is the one guy you have to locate. But make the rest of players prove they can make their jump shots. If they make jumpers, then that's how you lose.

Why teams haven't stuck with zone longer vs. France, not sure. Thought Germany's zone was giving France issues in the first half of their opening-round game, but Germany inexplicably went away from it.

Turkey went with a 2-1-2 zone in the 4th quarter vs. France. They held France to 2-of-17 from the field in the quarter and Turkey almost made up a 15-point deficit in the 4th. France looked awful clanging shot after shot.

We've always wondered why France has never really committed to pushing the ball more. This year things have changed as France has looked to increase tempo, and their transition has been good. Expect Greece to give fouls when France is trying to get out in transition.

Nic Batum has been a quality second option behind Parker. France has gotten good mileage curling Batum into the lane and Nic is always a danger to drive baseline. Batum has been a defensive menace as usual and his 2.4 steals/game puts him behind only Kirilenko on the leaderboard.

Joakim Noah (9.6 ppg, 8 rpg) has brought his active brand of ball across the Atlantic and has been a factor on the boards. Noah has been terrific guarding the post, helping and guarding pick-n-roll.

After having little impact off the bench in the first six games, combo guard Nando De Colo came out of nowhere to drop 21 points on Turkey, then put up 10 points vs. Spain. De Colo is an erratic shooter, but he can make plays off the dribble (clever passer).

Reserve big Ali Traore will likely see some time subbing for Noah, and Traore can score a bit with either a lefty hook or foul-line jumper.

Who knows what you're going to get from Boris Diaw. When he's tuned in, he offers France its best post option either scoring or passing out.

Not too surprising Greece has been subpar offensively without Spanoulis, Sofo and Dimis Diamantidis. Greece really does not have a go-to guy. Antonis Fotsis (11.5 ppg on 59%) leads Greece in scoring but he's not really a shot-creator. Fotsis is primarily a stretch-4, who Greece will run off screens and spot-up.

Greece has added more off-ball screening to the offense and they have been very successful with their cutting action in the tourney. Besides jumpers, Fotsis has gotten many of his points on cuts.

Greece has gotten solid play from its center tandem of Giannis Bourousis and Kostas Koufos. Greece likes to run some offense though Bourousis in the post. Bourousis (10 ppg, 5.3 rpg) can score with a hook, but he's nothing spectacular down low. Bourousis has passed the ball out of the post well. Would like to see Greece move Bourousis away from the paint more to take advantage of his 20-foot range.

Kostas Koufos has been very productive in 17 minutes/game (9 pts, 4.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg). Koufos has done most of his scoring on cuts to the rim. Koufos will get a few post touches as well, where he's been scoring with a hook. Koufos has been a factor on the boards and on the backline of Greece's defense.

Nick Calathes and Nikos Zisis will share ball-handling duties. Calathes has done a nice job controlling tempo, but he remains a shooting liability.

Zisis is more of a steady, conservative playmaker rather than a dynamic guard. Zisis' normally reliable mid-range jumper has been off so far (35% overall, 30 on 3PA). Like Fotsis, Zisis will be run off screens.

Keys for Greece have to be to keep France out of transition and keep Parker out of the lane. Keep that paint packed, force standstill jumpers. If Greece can stay disciplined defensively and get France clanking jumpers like they did vs. Turkey, they have a great shot at the upset.

FIBA Americas Musings on Argentina, Canada, More

2011-09-13T09:22:00.001-07:00

• Also on The Painted Area: EuroBasket Quarterfinals Preview:
Spain-Slovenia, Lithuania-(FYR) Macedonia

What a fun weekend of basketball down in Mar del Plata, Argentina, with the FIBA Americas semifinals and final. On Saturday, Argentina survived Puerto Rico and Brazil outlasted Dominican Republic to claim the federation's two automatic bids to the 2012 London Olympics. On Sunday, Argentina held off Brazil to win the tournament before an passionate full house at home. Tourney MVP Luis Scola was magnificent, scoring 59 points on 24-35 FG in the final two games, and averaging 21.4 points on 56.5% shooting in 29.2 minutes per game overall in the tournament. Here are a few of my big-picture thoughts related to the tournament:

1. Argentina: Looking Like the End of the Line

2. Canada: FIBA Americas Sleeping Giant of the Future?

3. Whither Splitter?

4. Grande Sounded Great

5. FIBA Americas Spitting Images

1. Argentina: Looking Like the End of the Line
Ever since Argentina's Golden Generation burst onto the international basketball scene with their shocking dissection of Team USA at the 2002 FIBA World Championships, they've been one of my favorite teams to watch at any level of basketball, with their often-gorgeous and always-cohesive combination of player movement and ball movement out of their flex sets on offense. (Jesse Blanchard from the Spurs blog 48 Minutes of Hell posted an eloquent appreciation of this era of Argentina basketball yesterday that's worth a read.)

The decade-long run looks like this:

But now, it looks like it's all coming to an end, as Argentina really looked old despite winning the FIBA Americas tournament. All things considered, I would be surprised if Argentina is in serious medal contention at the 2012 Olympics.

Granted, Argentina came into this FIBA Americas tournament with the kind of expectations usually faced by a Team USA. Playing at home and with essentially their full complement of stars, they were largely expected to run through the tourney with little challenge.

Yet, the Argentines were surprisingly knocked off by Brazil in the group stage, barely survived an upset bid by Puerto Rico in the semifinals (I'm still shocked that P.R. did not put the ball in the hands of J.J. Barea down two points and needing to go the length of the floor with 6.6 seconds left), and then had to dig down deep for a fourth-quarter comeback over Brazil in the championship game.

A changing of the guard in South American basketball now seems not only inevitable but imminent, as Brazil has plenty of room to get better - Nene, Andy Varejao and Leandro Barbosa could all be added to the squad, and there are several intriguing young prospects in the pipeline.

Meanwhile, Argentina desperately needs reinforcements, but none are on the way. Their team had 10 players over 30, no player under 27, and little depth forced those top greybeards into heavy minutes.

The whole story of Argentina basketball is really amazing to me: seemingly out of nowhere, they developed a generation with an excellent depth of quality NBA players - Ginobili, Scola, Nocioni, Oberto, Delfino - and now, there appears to be very little talent behind them. Argentina did finish in 4th at the recent FIBA Under-19 World Championships, but without any elite-level individual talents.

The players remain confident. Carlos Delfino said this about the Olympics after the win over Brazil: "We are getting old but we've got a big heart and big guts. God willing, we will play a great tournament and get a new Gold."

I mean, I was certainly pulling for the Golden Generation this weekend, and I'm sure I'll be doing the same next summer at the London Olympics, but Argentina desperately needs an injection of a couple 25-year-old talents which is not coming. All things come to an end.

Still, we celebrate the Golden Generation for one more golden performance, and leave the last word to Manu:

"We are united, a group of friends, we are all really happy about Luis Scola earning the MVP prize after such a tough recovery he had or Nocioni playing with his ankle absolutely injured and these are only a couple of examples we can name. Let the legend continue."2. Canada: FIBA Americas Sleeping Giant of the Future?
Team Canada flamed out of the FIBA Americas tournament, not even able to get into the top five and claim one of the spots for the pre-Olympic qualifying tournament, which cost coach Leo Rautins his job. (Don't blame it on Steve Nash, by the way.)

While Brazil certainly seems well-positioned for FIBA success in the near future, and the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico should be competitive, it's worth noting that Canada could become a FIBA power later in the 2010s, if they can harness all of the talent coming down the road.

The 2011 NBA draft featured Canadians PF Tristan Thompson in the lottery and PG Cory Joseph later in the first round.

PG Myck Kabongo should follow the Canada-to-Texas pipeline into an upcoming first-round, and big men Khem Birch (Pitt), Dwight Powell (Stanford) and Kris Joseph (Syracuse) could be first-round picks, too.

Further down the road, PF Anthony Bennett is rated as the no. 7 player in the 2012 high-school class, and SF Andrew Wiggins may be the best prospect of all, currently ranked as the no. 1 player in the class of 2014, and yes, that's ahead of any American high-schooler.

There should be plenty of talent for Canada to compete for medals not only at the FIBA Americas level, but at the World Championships and Olympics, as well. Frankly, by the late 2010s, Canada may have more basketball talent than any country outside the U.S.

The key issue, however, is getting all these players together to actually play for Team Canada. As Lawrence Dushenski noted to me on Twitter: "Most of these kids spend more time in the States than in Canada - hard to convince them to come play".

Canadian columnist Michael Grange wrote a full piece on the topic as well, leading with the following comment: "Until our players truly want to play for Canada, the basketball program will continue to suffer."

3. Whither Splitter?
In Monday's edition of 5-on-5, three of the five panelists suggested that Tiago Splitter would be a player who would make a great leap in 2012.

It should be noted that Splitter really did not look good for significant stretches of the FIBA Americas tournament. He was hampered by foul trouble, yes, but the Brazilian offense often seemed to function better with reserve big Rafael Hettsheimer in the game instead of Splitter.

In Brazil's group-stage win over Argentina, Hettsheimer was the star, with 19 points and 8 rebounds on 9-11 FG in 22 minutes, while Splitter had just 1 point on 0-6 FG in 18 minutes.

In the semi vs. the Dominican Republic, Splitter scored just 3 points on 1-5 FG in just 11 minutes (Hettsheimer had 14 points on 6-10 FG in 20 minutes), and often seem overpowered by Dominican revelation Jack Michael Martinez.

In the final, Splitter played better, with 12 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists on 5-10 FG in 22 minutes after once again battling foul trouble.

All told, Splitter may have been miscast as a primary scoring option. He really struggled to convert offensively, and often had his shot blocked. Overall, he averaged 8.7 ppg on 49% FG and an abysmal 43% FT mark in 21 minutes per game.

Yet, as Jay Aych has noted in his analyses, Splitter still contributed strong efforts as a rebounder (6.6 per game), defender, and passer (2.2 assists per game).

Still, after Splitter's exceptional 2009-10 season as the MVP of the Spanish ACB, we were expecting him to follow in the footsteps of former ACB MVPs like Luis Scola and Marc Gasol, and make a bigger impact on the NBA.

Back in San Antonio, Splitter will probably be placed in a role which suits his strengths and weaknesses better, but considering he's a key player in the team's future, it has give Spurs fans some pause that the Brazilian national team often seemed to function better in key games with Splitter on the bench.

4. Grande Sounded Great
Sean Grande and Fran Fraschilla called the FIBA Americas games on ESPN2 in the U.S. Certainly, we're appreciative of Fraschilla for all the support he's shown The Painted Area, and despite our bias, we genuinely think he does a great job analyzing FIBA games.

But we just wanted to take a second to give a shout-out to Grande, who's been the Celtics' radio broadcaster for several years, for outstanding work. Grande has everything one would want in a play-by-play man: good voice, eloquence with language, impeccably well-prepared with background knowledge, evident love of the game.

Even though these FIBA Americas games were far off the radar of the American sports landscape on the opening weekend of the NFL, Grande still treated them as significant events, understanding that the dozens of us lunatics who DVR'd the semis in the middle of the night and watched the final ahead of the Cowboys-Jets game did, too. I appreciated that.

In my mind, Grande should be a major national TV broadcaster for the NBA somewhere, without question.

5. FIBA Americas Spitting Images
A little FIBA frivolity before we go. Every time there was a cutaway to the Argentina bench, we couldn't get over the sense that Argentina coach Julio Lamas bore a striking resemblance to Keith Olbermann:

Lamas doesn't draw up plays during time outs, he issues SPECIAL COMMENTS.

Finally, we were excited that scrappy Argentina big man Guillermo Kammerichs brought back his moustache styling for the tournament final, as it allows us to re-run our favorite obscure FIBA lookalike from a few years ago, which goes something like this:

Borat + Brent Barry
=
Guillermo Kammerichs (Argentina)
Thank you. We'll be here all week.

• Also on The Painted Area: EuroBasket Quarterfinals Preview:
Spain-Slovenia, Lithuania-(FYR) Macedonia

EuroBasket 2011 Quarterfinals Preview (Part I): Spain-Slovenia, (FYR) Macedonia-Lithuania

2011-09-13T02:56:00.000-07:00

• Also on The Painted Area: FIBA Americas Musings on Argentina, Canada, More

The round-robins are over and now its time for the win-or-go-home portion of Euro '11. After group play, Spain remains the prohibitive favorite for gold with either Russia, France or Serbia likely to meet Spain in the finals.

The quarterfinals start on Wednesday with Spain vs. Slovenia and Lithuania vs. FYR of Macedonia. The winners will meet in the semis on Friday. Russia vs. Serbia and France vs. Greece follow on Thursday with the winners moving on to Friday's semis.

Would not be surprised to see all four Group E teams in the semis. Russia is the one Group F team that might be considered a favorite in the quarters, but they're a slim favorite over Serbia at best, as that game looks to be biggest toss-up of the quarters.

Don't forget to keep an eye on the loser's bracket as the four losing quarterfinals teams will fight for the two last Pre-Olympic bids. The losers of Wednesday's games meet on Thursday to determine one bid. While the losers of Thursday's quarters meet on Friday for the last bid. The two EuroBasket finalists will qualify directly for London.

We'll focus on the Wednesday quarterfinal matchups in this post.

SPAIN (E-1) vs. SLOVENIA (F-4)

When Spain is locked in, they can blow any other team in this tournament out of the gym. With the way Slovenia has been (dys)functioning on offense, can't see how Spain has difficulty in this game. Slovenia has been one of the more disappointing teams in Euro '11, especially on the offensive end where they have played way below capabilities.

Slovenia is only averaging 68 ppg on 40% shooting. Slovenia has scored over 70 points in a game only once in eight games. Slovenia has been abysmal from long range--26% on 3PA--and this has hurt the slashing ability of the guards.

Slovenia has too much talent to be putting up these numbers. Expected the outside shooting numbers would go down a little with Boki Nachbar being replaced by non-shooter Zoran Dragic, but it been much worse than anticipated.

Goran Dragic reverting back to his pre-'09 shooting ways has had a significant impact. Goran is only shooting 39% from the floor and is currently 4-for-27 from behind the arc. This has hindered Goran's ability to slash into the lane, which further complicates things offensively. Also guards Jaka Lakovic (34%) and Saso Ozbolt (21%) are shooting the 3pt. shot below their capabilities.

As for Spain, they look primed for another romp through the playoffs similar to '09. Pau Gasol has been one of the top players at EuroBasket, as usual, and is in line for his second consecutive EuroBasket MVP, averaging 20.4 ppg on 61%.

Marc Gasol has worked well in the starting lineup next to his brother, pitching in 14.6 ppg on 54% and leading Spain in rebounding (7.4). The bros have been clinical in the post and have moved the ball well. Likely to see some them working some hi-lo action as well.

Juan Navarro has been off the mark inside the arc but has been his usual deadly self behind the arc (42% on 3PA). La Bomba will wear defenders out running through an endless phalanx of screens. The Navarro pick-n-roll has been very successful generating points for himself and his teammates in Euro '11.

Rudy Fernandez hasn't been quite as productive as last year but he still makes an impact with his frenetic energy. Rudy will be run off screens as well, and like Bomba, he will handle the ball some.

Serge Ibaka has been productive, providing strong finishes on cuts, put-backs and blocks in his 17 minutes of floor time (7 ppg, 4.4 rpg) but has been foul prone.

Very intriguing matchup between Slovenia's Erazem Lorbek and Pau. Lorbek is basically Pau just a little smaller and less athletic. Lorbek and Pau were the two best players at Euro '09, but Lorbek has not played quite as well this year.

He has not been converting at his normal rate throughout the tourney. Only shooting 41% overall which is keeping his scoring to a modest 11.4 ppg. Lorbek's scoring is down also because has been dealing with more double teams since his teammates can't hit jumpers. Lorbek has hit his 3pt. attempts and Slovenia should have him drag Pau away from the lane.

7-3 center Mirza Begic has been been a godsend since Matjaz Smodis is a shell of his former self. Begic (8 ppg on 62%, 6.6 rpg, 1.3 bpg) has been very productive in his 17 minutes per game banging the boards (especially off. glass), hitting hook shots and being a deterrent on the backline of Slovenia's defense. Begic will be matched up with Marc Gasol. Begic has the length to bother Marc but not the girth.

Slovenia has great speed on the perimeter that can keep up with Spain's perimeter speed. Slovenia can be dangerous in transition but don't think its wise to get into an uptempo game with Spain.

I expect Spain will apply pressure on the perimeter and try to induce Slovenia's guards into miscues. Slovenia's guards can easily get out of control and I bet Spain will prey on this vulnerability.

Slovenia will likely get dispatched easily by Spain, but they still have a shot of staying alive in Olympic qualifying if they win their first loser's bracket game.

(FYR) MACEDONIA (F-2) vs. LITHUANIA (E-3)

In FYR of Macedonia's first-ever appearance in the EuroBasket knockout phase, they have the unenviable task of trying to beat Lithuania in front of their home fans. I think Lithuania is the better team and they will be very tough to beat at home.

Macedonia (6-2) is coming off a last-second loss to Russia and its only other loss came in OT to Montenegro on the opening day. Lithuania is 6-2 as well, but they've gone up against stiffer competition than Macedonia.

The contrast in offensive efficiency is jarring. Lithuania has one of the deadliest offenses in the field. Lithuania leads the tourney in ppg (85) and FG pct. (53%). As usual, Lithuania has been deadly behind the 3pt. line--45%, which also leads the tourney. It's been vintage Lithuania: crisp ball movement, exacting pick-n-roll action and multiple players drilling jumpers.

The simple fact is that Macedonia's offense is not that great as a whole. Macedonia is the worst shooting team in quarters at 37.5% from the floor and are only 30.6% from behind the arc. But Macedonia does have Bo McCalebb, who can carry his team in spite of the poor shooting around him.

Next to Tony Parker, Bo McCalebb has been the toughest guard for defenses to contain in the tourney. He can blow by any defender without a ball screen. And when in pick-n-roll he's not just a danger to dribble off the pick and turn the corner, but he's also dangerous splitting or going opposite of the screen. Can finish with either hand at the rim.

PF Pero Antic (11.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg) has been a decent second option to Bo. Antic can float out to the 3pt. line. Antic is a pop option and will occasionally run pick-n-roll himself. Antic can iso opposing PFs up and he can drive the ball (uses a ball fake well to set up his drives). Though, Antic has a tendency to chuck up some dicey shots and is currently shooting 35% overall.

Macedonia could be without starting center Todor Gechevski, who missed the Russia game, which would hurt as he's Macedonia's third best scorer.

Combo guard Vlado Ilievski can create a little bit off the dribble and hit pull-ups, but he tends to be streaky. The rest of the perimeter players don't offer very much. Center Peja Samardziski can score in the post a little (hooks & turnarounds) but won't overwhelm the opposition.

None of Lithuania's guards can physically keep up with McCalebb. so good team strategy is key. What's promising is that the Lithuanian bigs did a decent job showing hard on Parker ball screens and prevented him from turning the corner with impunity.

If Lithuania does decide to go over the top of screens with McCalebb, they have to have their bigs show hard to string him out toward the sideline. Think it's better to go underneath screens since McCalebb's jumper is subpar.

Expect to see some zone from Lithuania to make McCalebb a shooter and cut down on his penetration. Plus the rest of Macedonia's perimeter players are erratic shooters.

The keys to Macedonia neutralizing their poor shooting is that they keep their turnovers down (10.5 TOpg) and they lead the tourney in steals (9 spg). Macedonia has won the turnover battle in every game besides the Finland game. They come into the quarterfinals with a sterling -6.3 TOpg margin. They couple this a with Defensive FG pct. of 41.7%.

The Lithuanian guards do have a tendency to be careless with the ball, this is a perennial problem, and they've struggled with turnovers this year. Lithuania does not necessarily have a good history handling extended ball pressure. So this is an angle that Macedonia needs to exploit. Keep an eye on the turnover disparity.

Saras Jasikevicius (10.6 ppg, 4.8 apg, 57% overall, 53% on 3PA) has been very effective in limited minutes (18 mpg) and still runs the pick-n-roll as well as point guard in the field. He can still deliver perfect passes and he's a danger to pull up for jumpers going left or right. He already seems to have meshed well with Jonas Valanciunas to create a deadly pick-n-roll tandem. But Saras can also still get too cutesy and fling passes away.

Starting PG Mantas Kalnietis has had a solid Euro tourney as well and has shot his jumper better than he normally does. But like Saras his turnovers are little high.

Toronto Raptors lottery pick Jonas Valanciunas (10.4 ppg) has acquitted himself quite nicely in his first senior team season. Jonas has done his damage rolling or cutting to the rim, where he finishes at a high rate (71%). As mentioned above, his two-man game with Saras has been fun to watch.

Simas Jasaitis (10.4 ppg, 5 rpg) is on this team to drill catch-n-shoot jumpers and that's just what he's done this summer--60% overall, 52% on 3PA. Veteran guard Rimas Kaukenas has also shot the ball very well (12 ppg on 70%) and will also do a bit of ball-handling.

If Lithuania keep its turnovers in check, don't see Macedonia being able to hang with the home team.

• Also on The Painted Area: FIBA Americas Musings on Argentina, Canada, More

FIBA Analysis (9/11): Serbia Advances; Argentina Takes Americas Title

2011-09-11T22:27:00.001-07:00

EUROBASKET: SERBIA 68, TURKEY 67

In what amounted to a play-in game for the knockout round, Serbia escaped with the win after Ersan Ilyasova could not convert a short jumper off an in-bounds pass with four seconds left. Serbia gets a little redemption for its one-point loss to Turkey last year.

With the win, Serbia earned the 4th seed in Group E and will play the winner of the Russia-Macedonia game. And Turkey's EuroBasket ends on a sour note after an exciting run to the Worlds final in 2010.

You could make the case that Turkey lost this game at the FT line: shot 16-for-29. Turkey was awful from the FT line last year but it never really cost them. This year was a different story: shot 64.6% from the FT line.

The one thing that Turkey had no problem with last year was making its 3pt. attempts. They led the Worlds in 3pt. accuracy at 43%. This let them cover for poor FT shooting last summer.

But this year they couldn't find their touch from deep and it hindered their play. Turkey only made 3-of-17 3PA on Sunday and finished the tourney shooting 27.5% from long range.

Didn't think this game was particularly well-played and seemed to lag in spots. Probably had to do with a total of 50 fouls called. Serbia did shoot 46% from the floor but the offense did not seem to have its usual crispness. Turkey shot only 38% but was able to hang around because they had eight less turnovers.

Milos Teodosic made plays all over the floor vs. Turkey to end the game with 20 pts, 8 rebs, and 5 assts. Scored multiple buckets on runners/floaters and buried two 3PA in transition. Milos tempered some beautiful feeds with some overly difficult pass attempts that led to six turnovers.

Dusko Savanovic's crafty brand of ball was on display again. Dusko scored twice on baseline spins that he set up nicely. Had a few sneaky drives to rim as well. Also made a crucial basket after cutting to the rim as Teodosic drew defenders. His smarts and footwork make up for his poor physical skills.

Serbia got decent support from its center tandem of Nenad Krstic and Kosta Perovic. Both guys were effective as usual providing backline help. Perovic was quite productive in pitching in 8 pts and 6 rebs in nine minutes. Krstic had eight points as well.

Serbia got a big lift from combo guard Milenko Tepic's strong offensive play. Tepic (12 pts, 8 rebs) is normally an offensive afterthought but he aggressively sought out scoring chances, usually scoring on pull-ups.

We mentioned in our preview that Turkey's offense probably has the least amount of off-ball movement of any Euro team. And the action offensively vs. Serbia was much of the same. Partly has to do with Hedo Turkoglu's propensity to iso.

Turkey really needed Hedo to have a big game today but he failed to deliver (like he did for most of Euro '11). Once again Hedo's shot selection was sketchy, leading to a 3-for-10 day. Hedo missed his two 3PA vs. Serbia to finish off a abysmal shooting performance during Euro '11--5-for-32 on 3PA. Hedo shot 39% overall.

Besides the good board work (7 rebs), Ilyasova had another uneven game of 10 points on 3-of-10 shooting. He was also errant at the FT line, missing four of his eight FTs. Ersan was one of the best players at Euro '09 and was very good for most of the Worlds. The past few years, Turkey could count on these guys to generate offense and make big plays when needed. But this year, both guys were subpar.

Enes Kanter was impressive in his limited minutes once again. Kanter scored off a few put-backs and a few rolls. Used a nifty reverse spin move to score on one of his rolls. Liked how he threw his body around in the painted area and he drew six foul shots for his effort (though, he only was 3-for-6).

Similar to the Germany game, found it puzzling that Turkey did not try to get the ball to Enes more down low. Savanovic couldn't handle him physically .

SG Omer Onan (11 pts) helped Turkey by scoring six points in transition and knocking down a few pull-up jumpers. Emer Preldzic (8 pts) came out strong in the first half by making plays off the dribble for himself or his teammates. Used a nifty cross-over move to get into a pull-up and made a few nice feeds. But he was fairly non-existent in the 2nd half.

Wouldn't be surprised if that was the last time Hedo suited up for Turkey. Might be time to hand his SF spot over to Preldzic and feature Kanter as the go-to-guy. Both young guys played solid ball in their first tour with the senior team. 6-9 Preldzic can replicate some of what Hedo brought to Turkey over the last decade--a big ball-handler. Kanter can start alongside Asik for many years to come and he can bring the offense while Asik does defense.

FIBA AMERICAS FINALS: ARGENTINA 80, BRAZIL 75

Even though both teams already accomplished their goals to reach the Olympics, there was still pride to play for between these natural rivals. Argentina did not want to disappoint its home crowd and this was the swan song of their Golden Generation. Argentina won its first Americas title since 2001.

After nearly getting upset the night before by Puerto Rico, Argentina was in danger in the 4th quarter for the second night in a row.

Brazil made things interesting by taking a six-point lead early in the 4th. But Argentina responded with two clutch plus-one lay-ins from Luis Scola midway through the 4th to regain the lead and momentum.

Brazil made some costly mistakes late in the game that were fatal. Three unnecessary turnovers came when Brazil tried to push the ball in transition in the last five minutes of the 4th.

You know the drill with Luis Scola by now. He hurt the defense to the tune of 32 points on 12-of-18 by popping and posting. Scola also generated a bunch of scoring opportunities for his teammates from the extra attention he drew. He had four assists, but also had passes that initiated sequences that led to scores. Scola was rightfully named MVP, making this his third consecutive FIBA Americas MVP trophy. Scola led the Americas in scoring (21.4 ppg) for the second straight time.

Manu Ginobili (8 pts, 4 rebs, 3 assts, 6 TOs) was not quite as magical as he was in the semis and forced the action sometimes, like he has from time to time in this tourney. Manu looked a little worn out in this game which is understandable since his 34-year-old body played 10 games in 13 days. Manu still did enough to be considered a first-team All-Americas selection--averaged 16 ppg, 4 apg, 3 rpg, 1.5 spg, 2.7 TOpg, 46% FG pct. and 46% on 3PA.

Carlos Delfino finally found the range on his jumper--3-of-7 on 3PA--and pitched in 16 pts & 9 rebs. Carlos had his typical FIBA tourney: good rebounding, good defense, good passing off the dribble and erratic shooting.

Kind of funny that Pablo Prigioni, a reluctant shooter for most of his career, led the Americas in 3pt. pct. (61%). Pablo went 2-for-2 on 3PA in the finals on his way to 10 points.

As we mentioned in yesterday's post, Ruben Magnano's Argentine teams were underrated defensively and Brazil had one of the best defenses in the Americas. And they held an Argentina team that was averaging 49% going into the finals to 43% today. It doesn't hurt that Magnano knows Argentina as well as any opposing coach.

Tiago Splitter's struggles in this tourney have been well-documented but he was not too bad today. Splitter (12 pts, 5 rebs, 3 assts) hit two righty hooks and was able to score a few times by scooping up loose balls around the rim. Tiago's defense was on point again and he drew two charges. Tiago moved his feet well on defense the whole tourney--does this as well as any NBA center.

Reserve center Rafael Hettsheimer (10 pts, 5 rebs) was a nice asset off the bench again giving Scola some problems down low. Rafael hit a couple baby hooks and used his bulk to create space.

SF Marcus Vinicius (Viera) had his jumper working all game long to finish the game with 17 pts. PG Marcelo Huertas (7 pts, 2 assts) never got on track vs. Argentina. but he didn't really hurt Brazil considering his minimal bad passes.

Argentina definitely looked like they were showing their age in the second week of the Americas. The Americas schedule was relentless with six games in seven days on the second week and Argentina had three games that were closer than anticipated. You wonder how Argentina will fare next summer.

All their main players will be over 30 by next summer and their bench ain't young either. The frontcourt rotation is a major question mark plus Fab Oberto and Andres Nocioni might be limited by next summer. Could see opposing frontcourts exposing them.

2011 FIBA Americas Semifinals Analysis (9/10): Argentina & Brazil Earn Olympic Bids

2011-09-10T22:39:00.000-07:00

ARGENTINA 81, PUERTO RICO 79

Was not expecting this game to be competitive but Puerto Rico had a chance in the last minute to pull off the shocking upset. But Argentina survived to play for the Americas championship on Sunday, and also earn an automatic bid to the Olympics.

Give Puerto Rico props for pushing Argentina to the brink at home. Puerto Rico easily could have folded after Argentina made runs in the 1st and 3rd quarter. But Puerto Rico chipped away at leads in the 2nd and 4th quarters to hang around.

Thought that after Argentina started to gain momentum in the 3rd that they would eventually leave Puerto Rico in the dust and end up beating them by 15-20 points. But Puerto Rico responded well in the 4th and had a few chances to take the lead in the last two minutes.

Argentina started the game sizzling and scored 29 points on 13-of-17 shooting in the 1st quarter. Luis Scola led the rampage with 16 points on 8-for-8 shooting in the first stanza.

But Argentina slowed their roll in the 2nd quarter only scoring 11 points and Puerto Rico was able to take a 44-40 lead going into halftime. Scola sat most of the 2nd quarter and Puerto Rico's zone gave Argentina some issues.

Argentina continued to look shaky at the beginning of the 3rd, and Puerto Rico upped its lead to eight points. The Argentines looked tight.

Then energy forward Federico Kammerichs made the play of the game when he grabbed a loose ball and squeezed his way to the rim for a plus-one lay-in. That play changed the momentum of the game. Definitely pumped life into the crowd and the Argentine squad went on a 26-12 run to close out the 3rd.

Manu Ginobili (23 pts on 7-of-11) was the leader of the 3rd quarter run, burying four 3PA in the quarter. Manu netted two more 3PA early in the 4th which gave him 18 points in a 10-minute stretch. Manu also made a huge trailing block on Arroyo with just three minutes to go in the game. Manu hit multiple jumpers off of quick dribble pull-ups.

Scola was a mid-range machine as the majority of his buckets came between 12-to-15 feet. He hit multiple jumpers popping or coming off baseline screens. Scola hit four baseline jumpers in the 1st quarter. Luis led Argentina with 27 points on 12-of-17 shooting.

Pablo Prigioni (16 pts, 5 assts, 5 rebs) is a reluctant shooter but he wasn't going to turn down the wide open looks he got today. Prigioni teamed up with Manu to rain down 3pts. on Puerto Rico in the 2nd half and made 5-of-8 3PA overall. Also dropped a beautiful bounce pass to a trailing Scola in transition. He's one of the best bounce passers in the world.

Carlos Delfino (5 pts, 8 rebs, 2 stls) could not capitalize on some great looks from the perimeter and ended 2-of-10 from the field. Delfino's shooting has been erratic this summer (31% on 3PA, 43% overall); tends to be his pattern in FIBA play.

The shooting numbers skewered heavily in Argentina's favor. Argentina shot 52.6% overall and 13-for-28 from 3pt. range while Puerto Rico shot 43% overall and 8-for-16 from 3pt. range. The main reason Puerto Rico stayed in the game was because they crushed the offensive glass.

Both teams had the same number of defensive boards (22) but Puerto Rico grabbed 16 off. boards to Argentina's six off. boards. Those extra possessions let Puerto Rico double up Argentina on FT attempts.

Carlos Arroyo (15 pts) and JJ Barea (20 pts) punished the Argentine defense with pull-up jumpers all over the floor. But both guards sprinkled their requisite sketchy shots into the mix.

Dan Santiago's size gave the undersized Argentine frontline some problems, particularly in the 2nd half--14 of his 16 points in the 2nd half. Santiago was able to score a couple nice drop-steps, a turnaround banker, a hook and drew fouls (6-for-8 FTA) down low. Puerto Rico went through Santiago in the post late in the game with decent results. However, Dan had a costly TO with a chance to take the lead with just over a minute left.

Renaldo Balkman's activity was a positive for Puerto Rico tonight. Balkman made plays off the ball (10 pts) and led Puerto Rico's assault on the offensive glass (5 off., 12 total rebs). Former Boston University standout John Holland (11 pts) is not known as a shooter but he helped his team with three 3pt. makes.

Puerto Rico played solid ball in the Americas considering they were missing multiple key players, including center PJ Ramos. They get to participate in the pre-Olympic tourney next July and like the Dominican Republic, have a legit shot at one of the three bids.

BRAZIL 83, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 76

Expected this game to be competitive and it did not disappoint. Brazil lost to Dominican Republic in a close game in group stage but Brazil returned the favor today.

With the win, Brazil earned an automatic bid to London for its first basketball Olympics since 1996. A nice showing by a Brazil team that was missing Andy Varejao, Nene, Leandro Barbosa and had to deal with a subpar tourney from Tiago Splitter. Coach Ruben Magnano did another masterful job making adjustments and getting contributions up and down his roster.

Every aspect of the game was basically a wash between the two teams besides the 3pt. shooting. Both teams shot roughly 40% but Brazil made 10 3PA while Dom. Rep. made five 3PA.

Marcelo Huertas once again created great scoring opportunities for himself or his teammates. Marcelo's 17 pts came on a couple pull-up jumpers, a few floaters/runners and a few driving lay-ups. Marcelo's tendency to jump in the air to pass worked both ways for him today. Made a few nice feeds (7 assts) but also made some mistakes when he left his feet (4 TOs).

Old man Marcelo Machado can still drop long bombs. One of the deadliest shooters in FIBA play buried five 3PA off the bench to lead Brazil with 20 points. Machado hit two 3pt. makes coming off screens with barely any room to get the shot off. Machado also made things happen with his dribble drives, dropping a few nice assists off the bounce.

Tiago Splitter had another rough outing where he was limited to 11 minutes because of foul trouble. Tiago had trouble finishing his shots (1-of-5)--got his shot blocked 2-3 times. This has been a recurring theme for Tiago during the tourney--he has struggled to find his bearing offensively and finish off his shots cleanly. Though, he has been productive on the boards (6.7 rpg in 20 mins) and good defensively.

Rafael Hettscheimer's soft touch was a boon for Brazil's offense once again. Rafael hit hooks with both hands, hit two 15-footers and had two put-backs on his way to 14 pts on 6-of-10 & 8 rebs (4 off.).

Brazil did another fine job on the defensive end, holding Dom. Republic to 42% from the field. This has been an underrated aspect of Magnano-led teams. His Argentine teams will always be remembered for their exacting offense, but their defense was stout.

The frontline of Dominican Republic did the heavy lifting once again. Al Horford and Jack Martinez have been the most consistent players for Coach Calipari and they both gave great effort today. Calipari was milking the hi-lo action, which was smart considering Horford and Martinez's passing skills.

Horford was the focal point as usual and he delivered with 18 points (7-of-20) and 7 rebs. Horford was adroit on the blocks, scoring on three turnaround jumpers that he set up with slight shoulder fakes in the opposite direction. He also made a tough runner across the lane. Horford has done a nice job facing up and putting the ball on the deck in this tourney.

JM Martinez (18 pts & 15 rebs) was a menace 8 feet and in, scoring around the rim, drawing fouls (6-of-7 FTA) and pounding the offensive glass (5 off. rebs). JM made a couple nifty post scores (nice up/under), but he also missed a handful of point-blank shots. Horford also had a few close shots roll off the rim.

Former Pitt Panther guard Ronald "Razor" Ramon gave Dom. Republic a much needed dose of machismo on the perimeter. Ramon kept D.R. close late with all of his three 3pt. makes coming in the 4th.

Dom. Republic's other NBAers, Francisco Garcia and Charlie Villaneuva, did not play up to their capabilities once again. Both guys scored eight points today, but were ineffective for long stretches of the game.

Garcia seemed to be heating up with two 3pt. makes off screens in the 1st half, but Cisco offered no points in the 2nd half. Garcia played well in '09, drilling jumpers and blocking shots, but he could not find the range on his jumper this summer (38% overall, 32.7% on 3PA) and was not quite as effective overall.

Chuckie V. had an uneven tourney in '09 and this summer was even more ragged. Chuck was out of shape and still looks uncomfortable with the FIBA game.

The Dominicans still have a chance at the Olympics as they will be in the pre-Olympic qualification tourney next July. A Dominican team at full health and with another training camp with Calipari should be able to contend with the four European teams for the three Olympic berths.

EuroBasket 2011 Analysis (9/9): Germany Gets Must Win; France Stays Undefeated

2011-09-10T03:54:00.000-07:00

GERMANY 73, TURKEY 67

Germany earned a big win in Group F action and kept its knockout-round hopes alive. If Germany beats Lithuania on Sunday and Turkey beats Serbia, Germany earns a quarterfinals spot. But if Germany wins and Serbia wins, a three-way tiebreaker between Germ., Lith. and Serbia will determine the last two playoff seeds in Group E

Chris Kaman led the Germans with 20 points on 9-of-16. Kaman was tough all over the offensive end hitting multiple mid-range jumpers, scoring off of rolls & cuts and converting some nice post moves, including a nice drop-step that drew a foul for a key three-point play.

Kaman once again provided nice backline support, altering shots (3 blks) and forcing Hedo into some tough shots when switched on him late in the game.

Dirk Nowitzki (19 pts, 7 rebs, 3 assts) was on his game once again, knocking down perimeter jumpers and adding two sweet turnaround bankers into the mix. Guard Heiko Schaffartzik (10 pts, 5 rebs, 5 assts) made things happen in pick-n-roll action, hitting multiple pull-ups and finding open teammates.

Reserve SF Philip Schwethlem played a crucial role knocking down open jumpers down the stretch. 11 of Schwethlem's 14 points came in the last five minutes of the game. Hit all of his three 3PA in that span, including a big make with 0:50 left that gave Germany a 67-62 lead.

Germany's defense under coach Dirk Bauermann is usually good, if not a tad too physical. Sometimes Germany's defense gets overlooked but they have been solid throughout Euro '11. Currently sixth in defensive FG pct. (41.6%). Held Turkey to 39% shooting overall and 29% from long range.

Turkey continues to be off from deep--currently shooting 28.7% on 3PA. Quite a contrast from last year when they led the Worlds in 3pt. shooting at 43%.

Turkey was able to stick around because of quality glass work. Pounded the offensive boards: had 17 off. rebs. to Germany's 28 defensive rebs. But they put those extra possessions to waste by shooting 45.5% from the FT line. Turkey got to the FT line nine more times but made two less than Germany. Turkey was bad at the line last year and they're currently at 66%.

Omer Asik's 19 pts came on rolls, cuts and put-backs. Omer even added in a 18-footer. Omer was great on the offensive glass again (7 off. rebs), including three that led to put-backs in the last three minutes of the game. Turkey's best offense down the stretch seemed to be to throw the ball up at the rim and let Asik track the ball down.

Enes Kanter was a factor in the post using his up-n-under moves to great effect. Kanter was a perfect 5-for-5 from the floor for 11 pts in 19 minutes. Kanter was hot early in the 2nd quarter, scoring seven of his 11 in a few minutes. But it was puzzling that Turkey did not try to feature Enes more in the 2nd half.

Another game where Turkey just did not get enough from its starting forward tandem, Hedo Turkoglu and Ersan Ilyasova. The past few years, Turkey could count on these guys to generate offense and make big plays when needed. But this year, both guys have been playing lower than expected.

Hedo forced up too many questionable shots with hands in his face (especially late in the game) and ended with nine points on 4-of-15 shooting. Hedo missed all of his four 3PA today to keep his cold shooting snap going--Hedo is shooting 40% overall, 5-for-30 on 3PA.

Besides the good board work (7 rebs), Ersan had another quiet game of four points on 1-of-7 shooting. Ersan was one of the best players at Euro '09 and was very good for most of the Worlds, but he seems to be a bit out of sync this year. Might have something to do with Kanter coming into the rotation.

Turkey goes to 1-3 and will play Serbia, also 1-3, on Sunday. Turkey needs to win that game if they want any chance at a playoff bid. If they win and Lithuania beats Germany, they advance. But if Germany wins, Turkey get eliminated even if they win.

FRANCE 73, LITHUANIA 67

After a nine-point 3rd quarter that allowed Lithuania to grab the lead, France flipped the script and piled up 30 points in the final quarter to stay undefeated.

Lithuania could not really contain Tony Parker (19 pts) any better than any other team. Tony hit multiple floaters, a few short pull-ups, some transition scores and gave Lithuania problems going away from ball screens. Though, Lithuanian bigs did a decent job showing hard on Parker ball screens and prevented him from turning the corner too often.

France got a huge game from combo guard Nando De Colo (21 pts on 8-of-14), who came off the bench and immediately had impact. Along with Parker, De Colo was clutch in the 4th, scoring 13 of his 21 in the quarter.

De Colo hurt Lithuania with his pull-up jumper and had a few scores off of well-timed baseline cuts. Also, his five steals led to multiple points in transition.

De Colo's biggest play came when he stripped Saras Jasikevicius and proceeded to score a transition lay-up to cut Lithuania's lead to 48-45 early in the 4th. Lithuania had momentum at the time after a run in the 3rd gave them a lead going into the 4th. Up until that point, France had only scored five points in roughly 10 minutes. De Colo stripped the ball from Saras another time which led to Nando getting fouled in transition.

Joakim Noah brought terrific energy to the floor as usual. Noah grabbed 13 boards (6 off.) and defended the pick-n-roll well. NIc Batum had another solid all-around game with 9 pts, 4 stls, and 3 assts.

France's defense humbled the normally exacting Lithuanian offense. Lithuania's offense came into this game leading Euro '11 in ppg, FG pct. and 3pt. pct. France held Lithuania to roughly 20 points below its average.

The normally sweet-shooting Lithuanians could not find the range from deep--30.4% on 3PA. They came into the game smoking from deep--50% on 3PA. And they had been shooting 56% overall and France held them to 40%. France is one of the top teams at producing steals and picked off 13 today.

Sharpshooter Simas Jasaitis led Lithuania in scoring by knocking down jumpers (3-for-7 3PA). Jonas Valanciunas (12 pts) was productive in his floor time finishing on cuts, rolls and put-backs.

Lithuania got spotty play from its point guard tandem, Mantas Kalnietis and Saras Jasikevicius. Saras made some nice feeds (6 assts) in the pick-n-roll but neutralized those dimes with some lazy pass attempts and careless ball-handling (5 TOs)--got stripped a few times. Kalnietis had little positive impact and had three TOs of his own.

France will play Spain on Sunday to determine the first seed in Group E. Not sure what to expect from that game as Spain might not care about their seeding and rest some guys. Lithuania falls to 2-2 and plays Germany next. If Lithuania wins, they earn third place in Group E. If they lose and Serbia wins, a three-tiebreaker between them, Germ. and Serbia goes into effect.

FIBA Analysis (9/9): Germany Gets Must Win ; France Stays Undefeated

2011-09-09T19:36:00.000-07:00

GERMANY 73, TURKEY 67

Germany earned a big win in Group F action and kept their knockout round hopes alive. If Germany beats Lithuania on Sunday and Turkey beats Serbia, Germany earns a quarterfinals spot. But if Germany wins and Serbia wins, a three-way tiebreaker between Germ., Lith. and Serbia will determine the last two playoff seeds in Group E

Chris Kaman led the Germans with 20 points on 9-of-16. Kaman was tough all over the offensive end hitting multiple mid-range jumpers, scoring off of rolls & cuts and converting some nice post moves. Including a nice drop-step that drew a foul for a three-point play that gave Germany a 60-52 lead with four minutes left.

Kaman once again provided nice backline support altering shots (3 blks) and forced Hedo into some tough shots when switched off him late in the game.

Dirk Nowitzki (19 pts, 7 rebs, 3 assts) was on his game once again knocking down perimeter jumpers and added two sweet turnaround bankers into the mix. Guard Heiko Schaffartzik (10 pts, 5 rebs, 5 assts) made things happen in pick-n-roll action hitting multiple pull-ups and finding open teammates.

Reserve SF Philip Schwethlem played a crucial role knocking down open jumpers down the stretch. 11 of Schwethlem's 14 points came in the last five minutes of the game. Hit all of his three 3PA in that span, including a big make with 0:50 left that gave Germany a 67-62 lead.

Germany's defense during Bauermann is usually good, if not a tad too physical. Sometimes Germany's defense gets overlooked but they have been solid throughout Euro '11. Currently sixth in Defensive FG pct. (41.6%). Held Turkey to 39% shooting overall and 29% from long range.

Turkey continues to be off from deep--currently shooting 28.7% on 3PA. Quite a contrast from last year where they led the Worlds in 3pt. shooting at 43%.

Turkey was able to stick around because of quality glass work. Pounded the offensive boards: had 17 off. rebs. to Germany's 28 defensive rebs. But they put those extra possessions to waste by shooting 45.5% from the FT line. Turkey got to the FT line nine more times but made two less than Germany. Turkey was bad at the line last year and they're currently at 66%.

Omer Asik's 19 pts came on rolls, cuts and put-backs. Omer even added in a 18-footer. Omer was great on the offensive glass again (7 off. rebs), including three that led to put-backs in the last three minutes of the game. Turkey's best offense down the stretch seemed to be throw the ball up at the rim and let Asik track the ball down.

Enes Kanter was a factor in the post using his up-n-under moves to great effect. Kanter was a perfect 5-for-5 from the floor for 11 pts in 19 minutes. Kanter was hot early in the 2nd quarter, scoring seven of his 11 in a few minutes. But puzzling that Turkey did not try to feature Enes more in the 2nd half.

Another game where Turkey just did not get enough from their starting forward tandem, Hedo Turkoglu and Ersan Ilyasova. The past few years Turkey could count on these guys to generate offense and make big plays when needed. But this year, both guys have been playing lower than expected.

Hedo forced up too many questionable shots with hands in his face (especially late in the game) and ended with nine points on 4-of-15 shooting. Hedo missed all of his four 3PA today to keep his cold shooting snap going--Hedo is shooting 40% overall, 5-for-30 on 3PA.

Besides the good board work (7 rebs), Ersan had another quiet game of four points on 1-of-7 shooting. Ersan was one of the best players at Euro '09 and was very good for most of the Worlds, but he seems to be a bit out of sync this year. Might have something to do with Kanter coming into the rotation.

Turkey goes to 1-3 and will play Serbia, also 1-3, on Sunday. Turkey needs to win that game if they want any chance at a playoff bid. If they win and Lithuania beats Germany, they advance. But if Germany wins, Turkey get eliminated even if they win.

FRANCE 73, LITHUANIA 67

After a nine-point 3rd quarter that allowed Lithuania to grab the lead, France flipped the script and piled up 30 points in the final quarter to stay undefeated.

Lithuania could not really contain Tony Parker (19 pts) any better than any other team. Tony hit multiple floaters, a few short pull-ups, some transition scores and gave Lithuania problems going away from ball screens. Though, Lithuanian bigs did a decent job showing hard on Parker ball screens and prevented him from turning the corner too often.

France got a huge game from combo guard Nando De Colo (21 pts on 8-of-14), who came off the bench and immediately had impact. Along with Parker, De Colo was clutch in the 4th, scoring 13 of his 21 in the quarter.

De Colo hurt Lithuania with his pull-up jumper and had a few scores off of well-timed baseline cuts. Also, his five steals led to multiple points in transition.

De Colo's biggest play came when he stripped Saras Jasikevicius and proceeded to score a transition lay-up to cut Lithuania's lead to 48-45 early in the 4th. Lithuania had momentum at the time after a run in the 3rd gave them a lead going into the 4th. Up until that point, France had only scored five points in roughly 10 minutes. De Colo stripped the ball from Saras another time which led to Nando getting fouled in transition.

Joakim Noah brought terrific energy to the floor as usual. Noah grabbed 13 boards (6 off.) and defended the pick-n-roll well. NIc Batum had another solid all-around game with 9 pts, 4 stls, and 3 assts.

France's defense humbled the normally exacting Lithuanian offense. Lithuania's offense came into this game leading Euro '11 in ppg, FG pct. and 3pt. pct. France held Lithuania to roughly 20 points below their average.

The normally sweet-shooting Lithuanians could not find the range from deep--30.4% on 3PA. They came into the game smoking from deep--50% on 3PA. And they had been shooting 56% overall and France held them to 40%. France is one of the top teams at producing steals and picked off 13 today.

Sharpshooter Simas Jasaitis led Lithuania in scoring by knocking down jumpers (3-for-7 3PA). Jonas Valanciunas (12 pts) was productive in his floor time finishing on cuts, rolls and put-backs.

Lithuania got spotty play from their point guard tandem, Mantas Kalnietis and Saras Jasikevicius. Saras made some nice feeds (6 assts) in the pick-n-roll but neutralized those passes with some lazy pass attempts and careless ball-handling (5 TOs)--got stripped a few times. Kalnietis had little positive impact and had three TOs of his own.

France will play Spain on Sunday to determine the first seed in Group E. Not sure what to expect from that game as Spain might not care about their seeding and rest some guys. Lithuania falls to 2-2 and plays Germany next. If Lithuania wins, they earn third place in Group E. If they lose and Serbia wins, a three-tiebreaker between them, Germ. and Serbia goes into effect.

FIBA Analysis (9/8): Bo McCalebb Burns Georgia; Greece Gets By Slovenia

2011-09-09T04:02:00.000-07:00

(FYR) MACEDONIA 65, GEORGIA 63

Bo McCalebb's lay-in with two seconds left broke a 63-63 tie and gave Macedonia the win. With the win, Macedonia secured a berth in the quarterfinals. Bo lit up Georgia for 27 pts on 10-of-16, 4 assts & 4 stls. Tony Parker might be the only better guard in EuroBasket right now.

Like he's done against every other team, McCalebb tore up the Georgian defense with his speed all game. Didn't matter if it was in pick-n-roll or iso, McCalebb got to the rim with impunity. Split high screen/roll a few times for lay-ins and used a tight crossover to leave his defender flat-footed on another play. Finished with both hands in traffic.

On his game-winner, Bo drove the ball from the high right side off a hybrid iso/screen play and finished with his left hand. Bo did a lot of damage driving right-to-left all game.

When he wasn't scoring with his drives, he was drawing fouls--7-of-9 on FTA. Also hurt Georgia in transition scoring four baskets. And made two big steals in the late in the game.

Bo is currently the second-leading scorer left in the tourney (21.7 ppg), just behind Tony Parker. Bo also is just behind Parker on the leaderboard for FT attempts. Plus Bo is third in steals per game (2.3).

Bo did have four TOs and was 0-for-3 from 3pt. range. Bo's main weakness is his spotty jumper and he's shooting only 31% from behind the arc in the tourney.

Besides McCalebb, no one else on Macedonia did much of import offensively. Pero Antic (8 pts, 7 rebs, 4 stls) made a few nice plays, but if you take Bo's 10-for-16 out of the mix, the rest of the team shot 24%.

McCalebb's play was about the only thing that made this game palatable. Sloppy game where both teams shot under 37% and combined for a total of 31 TOs and 49 fouls. And both teams were terrible from long range. Georgia had to make due without its main option, Zaza Pachulia, who's out with a leg injury.

Georgia sprinkled in some zone on occasion, which was somewhat effective. Not sure why Georgia did not stick with the zone longer. Macedonia is an erratic outside shooting team and McCalebb is player you want to sag off.

Georgia submarined its fortunes by coughing up the ball 21 times. Some credit to Macedonia, who were credited with 13 steals but plenty of Georgia's TOs were just careless. Just throwing balls up for grabs. Though, it's not that surprising as Georgia came into this game leading the tourney in turnovers per game with 18.6.

Georgia covered somewhat for its mistakes by dominating the boards 46-32. They grabbed 15 off. rebounds to Georgia's 20 def. rebounds. Macedonia also kept Georgia in the game by fouling them 29 times.

Legendary draft bust Nikoloz Tskitshvili, who was starting in place of Zaza, led Georgia with 20 pts and 10 rebs. Skita's jumper was his main line of attack as he hit three 3PA plus a very long 2PA.

Georgian PF Viktor Sanikidze (Spurs own rights) drew fouls near the basket and finished off three dunks to end with 15 pts & 7 rebs.

Georgia dropped to 0-3 in Group F and has to hope that Slovenia keeps struggling. Next up for Georgia is a winnable game vs. Finland. If they lose that game, their quarterfinal hopes are squashed.

GREECE 69, SLOVENIA 60

Greece blew a 12-point halftime lead with a dreadful 3rd-quarter performance but Greece recovered and took back the lead with a strong 4th quarter.

Slovenia went with a zone almost exclusively for the whole 2nd half. The zone alignment held Greece to only seven points in the 3rd and allowed Slovenia to take a 46-44 lead going into the 4th after being down 12 at the half. Greece regained its bearings in the 4th, knocking down five 3PA on its way to outscoring Slovenia 25-14 in the final stanza.

Besides the 3rd quarter, Greece had one of its better days offensively. Had by far and away its best 3pt. shooting day hitting 9-of-17. They shot 27% from long range in the opening round.

Greece's defense continues to be one of the best in the tourney. Held Slovenia to 37.7% shooting and 24% from 3pt. range. Greece mixed in quite a bit of matchup zone. Greece currently is tops in defensive FG pct. (37.3%) and third in guarding the 3pt. line (27.3%).

Anytime the ball went into the post, Greece would send a second man, usually along the baseline. Smart move considering how badly Slovenia has been shooting the ball from outside.

Veteran combo guard Nikos Zisis was the only Greek in double figures with 19 pts. Zisis scored most of his points on jumpers, including two big 3pt. makes in the last minute of the game.

Utah Jazz reserve center Kostas Koufos (6 pts, 8 rebs) continues to be very effective in limited minutes on both ends of the floor. Made scores around the rim (a nice spin move in post), grabbed off. boards (4) and got a few blocks.

Greece got results when they went to Giannis Bourossis (8 pts, 7 rebs, 3 assts) in the post. His post moves led to a few lay-ins and a hook, plus he made a few nice feeds out of the post.

Even though Slovenia's two losses were very close, they are definitely underachieving, particularly on the offensive end. Slovenia's 24% 3pt. shooting performance vs. Greece left them at 26% for the tourney, which is dead last on the 3pt. leaderboard. Slovenia did not help its cause by shooting 58% on the FT line.

Expected the numbers would go down a little with Boki Nachbar being replaced with non-shooter Zoran Dragic. But Goran Dragic reverting to his pre-'09 shooting ways has had a significant impact. Also Jaka Lakovic (32%) and Saso Ozbolt (24%) are shooting below their capabilities.

Slovenia desperately needs for Goran Dragic to get his game on track, especially his shooting. Goran had another game of mediocre impact with 9 pts & 2 assts. Goran was 0-for-3 from 3pt. range which puts him at 1-for-20 on 3PA for the tourney. This hinders Goran's ability to slash into the lane and he only had a few deep forays into the paint today.

Combo guard Jaka Lakovic is known for two things: knocking down jumpers and making dicey decisions. Jaka hit three 3PA and he also had his fair share of forced shots and costly turnovers.

SF Zoran Dragic made plays using his speed advantage once again. Had two strong finishes on baselines drives where he blew by his defenders when going away from ball screens.

Little bit of a letdown we have not seen Erazem Lorbek at his best in this tourney. Had another below-average game (for him) with 10 pts, 5 rebs, 2 assts and 3-of-10 shooting. Give him some leeway today as it was tough for him to get a rhythm as the double teams were coming at him non-stop. But he has not been converting at his normal rate throughout the tourney. Only shooting 41% overall which is keeping his ppg to a modest 12.2.

7-3 Mirza Begic (8 pts, 12 rebs, 3 blks) was a major force on the boards and on the backline of Slovenia's defense. Begic changed multiple shots and deterred ball-handlers to rethink their routes. Begic had five off. rebounds and drew a foul on a put-back attempt late. But he missed two free throws that would have given Slovenia a one-point lead with 2:00 left. Begic was only 4-for-10 at the FT line.

Greece improves to 2-1 and looks to be in good shape for a playoff bid. They face their stiffest competition yet in Russia on Saturday. If Greece beats Georgia on Monday, they advance.

Slovenia (1-2) faces Macedonia on Saturday and could really use a win. Waiting for Slovenia to show more potency on offense.

FIBA Analysis (9/7): Argentina Upset By Brazil; Spain & France Hold On

2011-09-07T17:28:00.000-07:00

FIBA AMERICAS: BRAZIL 73, ARGENTINA 71

Brazil pulled off the biggest upset of the Americas by handing Argentina its first loss. They made Argentina look ordinary. Coach Ruben Magnano worked some magic again, but this time it was against Argentina.

This game didn't have huge implications as both teams were already qualified for the semis, but it did matter for seeding and pride. Didn't get the sense that Argentina was mailing it in; believe they wanted to beat their rival at home and stay undefeated.
For whatever reason, they just seemed off.

Give Brazil some credit for Argentina's uneven game as their defense was solid. If there is one person who knows Argentina's tendencies, it's Magnano. He had Brazil well-prepared for Argentna's off-ball movement as Brazil sat back, rarely getting beat by cuts prevalent in the Argentine scheme.

Argentina only managed 12 assists after averaging 19.5 apg coming into the game. Their assisted FG pct. today was only 41% (12 of the 29 FG makes were assisted) while they came in with a 53% assisted FG pct.

Bizarre start to the game for Argentina as they lost Andres Nocioni to a twisted ankle on the jump ball. Noce was jumping center for an injured Fab Oberto, who was used sparingly. So Argentina had to make do with a threadbare frontcourt rotation.

Marcelo Huertas (17 pts, 2 assts) usually thinks pass first but Argentina was giving him scoring opportunities, so he made them pay. Marcelo hit multiple pull-up jumpers, mixed a few of his patented floaters and converted a sweet spin move drive to put Brazil up seven points with just over a minute left.

Tiago Splitter (1 point, 8 rebs, 3 assts) had a another rough outing on the offensive end failing to finish off shots (0-for-6). Had a couple shots rim in & out. But he did move the ball well, including a nifty behind-the-back pass to a cutting Vinicius.

Reserve center Rafael Hettscheimeir gave Brazil a huge lift off the bench with 19 pts on 9-of-11, 8 rebs & 2 stls. Rafael is known for his soft touch and it came in handy as Splitter was off his game. He hit hooks with both hands, made a nice banker off a spin move, a few mid-range jumpers including an inside-pivot jumper on the right block and stole an in-bound pass from Manu that led to a dunk.

SF Marcus Vinicius (14 pts) helped cover for Splitter's scoring no-show by drilling jumpers all over the floor. Thought his length gave Delfino problems.

Guilherme Giovannoni (13 pts, 8 rebs) did his job as the stretch-4 wonderfully, drilling three 3PT including a crucial make to put Brazil up 69-61 with 40 secs left. Thought Giovannoni's help defense was on point.

Luis Scola did most of his damage facing up, very few post scores. As usual, buried 4-5 pick-n-pop jumpers, mostly at the FT line. But thought Scola missed some shots he usually makes. Two questionable foul calls on Scola in the span of 30 secs fouled him out with 2:20 left and Argentina down five. Scola's interior defense on Hettscheimeir left a lot to be desired.

Scola seemed to be the only Argentine who was consistent throughout. The Argentine offense did not have it's normal crispness. Missed shots they normally make. Did have some unlikely defensive lapses where the weakside help didn't commit hard enough.

Manu Ginobili (14 pts) did not quite look like himself. Not sure if he was nursing an injury, but he could never find a good rhythm. Made a few good plays but tempered that with by throwing two in-bounds passes away. Made a big block on a Splitter dunk attempt, but it looked like he got a lot of arm on the replay.

After a strong first quarter, Carlos Delfino (12 pts) disappeared until the final minute of the game when he converted two tough shots.

Pablo Prigioni turned down too many good opportunities to score. Pablo has always been a reluctant shooter/scorer but thought the shots opportunities he passed up today hurt his team. Though he had 13 points, they came in two 30-second bursts. His first six points came on back-to-back 3pts. late in the 3rd. Then he scored seven points in the last 30 seconds when Brazil was playing prevent defense. Thought Prigioni's normal steady playmaking was off as well, forced some stuff.

Do like how Argentina made a concerted effort to go underneath ball screens with Huertas. Make Huertas a shooter, he's more dangerous probing. You wish teams defending Tony Parker would pay attention to what Argentina did.

If Brazil beats Puerto Rico later today, they get the first seed and avoid Argentina in the semis.

EUROBASKET: FRANCE 68, TURKEY 64

France held off Turkey after being up 13 points at the start of the 4th. France stays undefeated and becomes the first team to qualify for the quarterfinals.

Ragged game in which both teams shot just 35% from the field and neither could find the mark from deep.

No clue why Turkey waited until the 4th quarter to utilize its 2-1-2 zone. Turkey had so much success with their zone last summer and France is an ideal team to implement a zone against.

Turkey went with the zone for most of the 4th and it was key in getting them back in the game. France was held to 11 points in the quarter on 2-of-16 from the field. Les Bleus was 0-of-9 behind the arc in the 4th (4-for-17 total). France only scored six points in the quarter until Parker was purposedly fouled with under 20 secs left.

Saw very little Parker pick-n-roll against the zone. Besides a few scores off cuts, France was clanging shots for most of the quarter. When France does hit their long-range shots, they come off of Parker drawing defenders off p/n/r. We have been hammering home the fact that France should see copious amounts of zone. Make them beat you on deep shots.

Tony Parker pretty much did what ever he wanted with the ball on offense. Either using pick-n-roll or iso action, Parker hit multiple pull-ups and lay-ins where he blew by defenders. Tony ended with 20 pts, 6 rebs, 5 asst but missed all of his five 3PA. Again, another team decides pick up Parker 25+ feet then constantly go over the top of screens or getting hung up in the screens.

Nic Batum continues to be a reliable second fiddle to Parker. Nicky Batts produced in a variety of ways: post-up jumper, blowing by his man up high for slam, slam off of steal and pull-up off baseline screen. Throughout Euro '11, France has had good success curling Batum toward the lane on the right side. Batum was disruptive defensively once again.

Joakim Noah (7 pts, 4 rebs) couldn't finish off his shots (1-for-7) but he did guard well on the ball and as a helper.

Boris Diaw (0 pts, 5 rebs, 4 TOs) was trapped in his own headspace as he is wont to do every other game. Lost the ball a few times out of sheer laziness. Boris is usually good for 3-4 no-show games each tourney. Usually has a pattern of one game on, one game off.

Thought Turkey had plenty of makeable shots, they just did not connect. Including a great 3pt. look for Kerem Tunceri in the left corner with 0:25 left that could have given Turkey the lead.

Turkey hurt the France on the offensive glass--15 off. rebs to France's 22 def. rebs. But they gave back those extra possessions by turning over the ball 16 times (France had 9 TOs). Turkey also did not help its cause by fouling France 27 times.

Hedo Turkoglu (13 pts, 8 rebs, 2 stls) had a decent game scoring on some pull-ups and takes to the rim. But Hedo still can't find the range on his 3pt. shot (0-for-5) and he's just not producing at a high-enough level.

Omer Asik (10 pts & 11 rebs) did what he's supposed to do: rebound and patrol the painted area. Asik had three put-backs and was a major deterrent in the lane when he was on the floor. Was credited with one block but he changed multiple attempts. There were times when Parker held back from turning the corner because he saw Asik lurking.

Emer Preldzic continued his solid play in his inaugural season with Turkey, hitting a couple jumpers for 11 pts. Enes Kanter only saw 10 minutes of floor time. Ersan Ilyasova quietly pitched in 10 pts, 10 rebs and was another strong defensive presence on the backline.

Turkey's matchup vs. Serbia on Sunday looks like it will decide the final quarterfinal bid in Group E.

EUROBASKET: SPAIN 77, GERMANY 68

Spain did not play up to its capabilities but did do just enough to hold off Germany. Germany took the lead briefly at the start of the 4th, but lost focus in the 4th making poor decisions and not getting Dirk the ball enough.

Germany really killed its chances with turnovers, particularly in the 2nd half, when they coughed up 11 of their 16 TOs. Spain only had eight TOs, and they used the extra possessions Germany gave them to get to the FT line. Spain got to the FT line nearly twice as much. This was a game in which it was readily apparent Germany needs to upgrade their PG spot.

Germany did a nice job of slowing the tempo, which was in their favor since they can't keep up with Spain in a fast-paced affair. Spain looked rather mediocre today with Pau Gasol back in the lineup. Missed a bunch shots they usually make and only shot 41.7% overall. Spain continues to struggle behind the arc with a 25% 3pt. shooting day vs. Germany.

Marc was the most impressive Gasol today, putting up 24 pts & 5 rebs. Banged multiple turnarounds going over both shoulders. He set them up nicely with shoulder fakes or half-spins in the opposite direction. Marc made a killing at the FT line shooting 12-for-14.

Pau (19 pts, 7 rebs, 2 blks) really struggled to connect on his shots in the first half and scored all of his 19 pts in the 2nd half.

Juan Navarro (14 pts, 5 assts) was a nuisance for the defense once again constantly, scurrying off the ball. La Bomba hit a few shots coming off screens and his pick-n-roll action generated more points or drawn fouls for his team.

Reserve SF Fernando San Emerterio (12 pts) gave Spain some crucial minutes. Fernando hit a few 3PT and made two runners, in particular, a banker where set up his defender with a hesitation dribble that gave Spain a five-point lead in the 4th. Sneaky drives are his forte.

Chris Kaman had a terrific first half scoring 9 of 15 pts in the half. Kaman did damage by facing up and driving the ball (usually on Marc) for a couple buckets. His best move was when he isolated vs. Marc up high and shook him with a spin move for a lay-in. Kaman scored on a few cuts in the 2nd half but he coughed up two costly turnovers in the 4th (had 5 TOs total). Thought Kaman's activity level was good all game and he helped disrupt Spain's offense.

Dirk Nowitzki's 19 pts and 7 rebs basically neutralized Pau, but Germany needed a little more. Dirk rarely had any open looks and made a few tough ones with hands in his face. Seems like Dirk is not getting the space he normally he gets in the NBA season. Understand the defenses in FIBA can crowd him better, but it has seemed that Dirk sometimes doesn't have the legs to get separation during the tourney.

Germany goes to 0-3 in Group E and has a very slim chance of advancing. Might be able to beat Turkey, but have trouble envisioning they can beat Lithuania at home.

EuroBasket 2011 Second Round Reset & Analysis

2011-09-07T03:08:00.001-07:00

• Also today on The Painted Area: EuroBasket/FIBA/IOC Musings & Rantings

The EuroBasket field has been cut in half and now all 12 remaining teams move to the Siemens Arena in Vilnius for the second round. The top three teams in opening-round Groups A and B form Group E, while the top three teams from Groups C and D form Group F.

Each team plays three games against the three teams from the opposite opening-round group. Each team plays three games with a day off between games.

The top four finishers in each group advance to the single-elimination playoff stage which will be held at the Zalgiris Arena in Kaunas from Sept. 14-18th.

Let's take a look at the second-round groups:

Group E:
1) France (2-0)
2) Spain (1-1)
3) Serbia (1-1)
4) Lithuania (1-1)
5) Turkey (1-1)
6) Germany (0-2)

Summary: Look at that list of teams, it's loaded. Six of the top eight teams left In EuroBasket. Wish we could take these six teams then just add Slovenia and Russia for the knockout stage. Two of these teams have no shot at making the Olympics.

France has the big advantage as the only team with two wins. Tony Parker has been abusing defenses and his 23 ppg was good for second on the ppg leaderboard behind Luol Deng. Why teams have continued to pick up Parker up high, and failed to go underneath Parker ball screens, I'm not sure. It's been a bit maddening.

France's other main NBAers (NIc Batum Joakim Noah, Boris Diaw) have been solid on both ends of the floor, while former Sonic Mickael Gelabale has been their designated deadeye.

France has been successful playing some of the best offensive ball they've ever played. They lead Euro '11 in ppg (87.6) and are second in points per possession (83.4 per 70 poss.) and FG pct. (53%).

But they have not looked all that great when teams have zoned them up. Which hasn't been enough. And I'm still not sure why Germany abandoned its zone which was working well vs. France. Gelabale is the one guy you have to locate, but make this team prove they will make their outside shots. They are shooting 40% from 3pt. land, but they only average 12 3PA/game. Opposing teams need to get those 3PA numbers up.

Wouldn't worry too much about Spain's loss to Turkey as they didn't have Pau and Spain doesn't worry too much about their quarters seed as long as they make the playoffs. Spain showed vs. Lithuania that when they are locked in (with a healthy Pau), they can dominate any team in the field. The only minor issue to keep an eye on is their 3pt. shooting--they've been off from behind the arc (30%).

Pau Gasol is on target for back-to-back EuroBasket MVP awards as he's averaging 22 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.5 bpg, 1 spg and 65% shooting. The rest of the main crew (Navarro, Calderon, Ibaka, Marc & Rudy) have looked solid and Spain has done a nice job spreading the touches around.

Think the last spot will come down to Serbia and Turkey. The one advantage Turkey has is that they still get to play Germany, the weakest team in the group, while Serbia has Spain and Lithuania on the schedule. The Turkey-Serbia game likely will decide the last playoff berth in Group E.

Serbia suffered a tough OT loss to France, but they played France well and have looked solid in Group B play. Deep roster with terrific chemistry and smart coaching. Milos Teodosic's shooting has been off the mark, but his playmaking has been masterful. Generates so many points for this team and currently leads tourney in assists (7.6). Nenad Krstic and Dusko Savanovic have given Serbia quality minutes as well.

Lithuania's offense has been one of the best in the field--lead in points per possession (83.6 per 70), FG pct. (55.6%) and 3pt. pct. (48.6%). The point guard play has been adequate with Saras Jasikevicius still showing mastery of the pick-n-roll and Mantas Kalnietis making his shots when needed (not his strong suit), though both need to cut down on careless mistakes.

We said in our preview that we wouldn't be surprised if Turkey got to the finals or got bounced in the first round. They almost did the latter. Still not sure what to expect from them game-to-game. The win over Spain was big, not so much that they beat Spain, as that it let them carry a win into the second round.

Turkey's young forwards Emer Preldzic and Enes Kanter have both played well in their senior-team debuts, though Turkey could use a little bit more from their veteran forward tandem of Hedo Turkoglu and Ersan Ilyasova. Give some credit to Hedo for not forcing the action as much as he has in the past.

It looks like Dirk's hopes at making another Olympics are close to over unless Germany can pull multiple upsets. Dirk will get his 20+ a game and Kaman will give Germany at least 10 & 10. Heiko Schaffartzik might get you double figures but after that you can't count on anyone else consistently contributing on the offensive end.

And this is kind of the way it's been through Dirk's tenure on the national team. Very little scoring support, particularly in the backcourt. Dirk guided Germany to the 2005 Euro finals, but the draw doesn't work in their favor this year. If Germany's in Group F, they're the third-best team. So I'd have to imagine these next three games will be Dirk's last go-round with Team Deutschland.

GROUP F:
1) Russia (2-0)
2) Macedonia (2-0)
3) Slovenia (1-1)
4) Greece (1-1)
5) Georgia (0-2)
6) Finland (0-2)

Summary: Not quite as imposing as Group E, huh. Russia and Slovenia are the two best teams and should be expected to make the playoffs. Russia's defense has been in fine form as usual and David Blatt has used his roster well, getting contributions from nearly everyone.

The Russian defense leads the field in points allowed, 64.8 ppg, and are third in defensive FG pct, 41%. This is nothing new for a David Blatt-led Russian team. What's a little surprising is that Russia is allowing roughly 49% on 2PA. They usually hold their opponents in the low 40s. Though, as usual, they are shutting down the 3pt. line (27%).

Macedonia is in great shape thanks to carrying over two wins from the opening round. Bo McCalebb has been shredding defenses with his speed and alongside Milos Teodosic and Ante Tomic, he has been the best non-NBAer at EuroBasket. Bigs Pero Antic and Todor Gechevski can float out to the 3pt. line. Though, their perimeter guys can be erratic and teams should definitely make McCalebb a jump shooter. Macedonia takes care on their boards and keeps their TOs down (lowest TOpg in tourney).

Slovenia's defense has been pretty tight as well but its offense should be performing at a higher level. It's surprising how poorly the offense has been considering the options they have. Slovenia is currently shooting 40.5% overall and 26.4% behind the arc, scoring just 72.2 points per 70 possessions. Slovenia is better than these numbers.

Goran Dragic needs to find his groove as he has been rather lackluster. Goran is only averaging 8.4 ppg and 3 apg and has reverted back to his errant shooting ways--1-for-17 on 3PA. Rick Carlisle doppelgänger Erazem Lorbek (12.6 ppg) has been alright, but he should be producing a little more, like he was at Euro '09.

Not surprisingly, Greece's offense has struggled without Vassilis Spanoulis and Sofo Schortsanitis, scoring just 72.7 points per 70 possessions. But they have neutralized it with a return to the Coach Giannakis-era defense-first mentality. They are currently holding opponents to 64.8 ppg (3rd best) on 37% shooting (1st). Also, the Greeks lead EuroBasket in rebounding at 40 rpg, even though they are playing at one of the slower paces, and are currently outrebounding their opponents by a +7.8 rpg margin. Greece will likely only have to beat Georgia to earn a bid to the playoffs, but they could also challenge Russia and Slovenia.

Georgia brings a 0-2 record into the second round but has the fortune of facing Greece, Macedonia and Finland. They can stay competitive with each of those teams, though the injury which has knocked Zaza Pachulia out of the rest of the tournament is a tough blow. Georgia has some kinks to work out before the second round tips off. They lead the tourney in turnovers with 18.6 per game--that's almost two more TOpg than any other team. Plus they stink at the FT line (62%). Though when they do hold onto the ball they are shooting a respectable 48.6% from the floor (3rd best).

Finland's surprise run should end as I don't see any way they get more than one win, maybe vs. Georgia. Multiple perimeter shooting threats but Petteri Koponen is the only quality dribble-driver. It's in your best interest to crowd them on the perimeter.

• Also today on The Painted Area: EuroBasket/FIBA/IOC Musings & Rantings

EuroBasket/FIBA/IOC Musings & Rantings

2011-09-07T01:54:00.000-07:00

Today, Jay Aych has reset the EuroBasket 2011 field, offering his sharp analysis of second round. Meanwhile, I spent my EuroBasket day off organizing and composing my thoughts on the following topics:

1. The Olympics are more important than the FIBA World Championships
2. 24 teams at EuroBasket, but only 12 at the Olympics?
3. Why so many games? Why 11 games in 19 days? Why the pre-Olympic qualifying tournament?
4. Why overlap Euro & Americas (& Oceania)?
5. I wish I knew how to quit you, trapezoid lane!
6. Frustrated by the draws, but excited for the basketball ahead

1. The Olympics are more important than the FIBA World Championships
In the U.S., we often hear that, around the world, the FIBA World Championships are widely considered to be a more important basketball competition than the Olympics. Increasingly, I don't buy this, at all.

Last year, the Gus Johnson of FIBA basketball, Liam Canny (a spirited broadcaster who was heard calling the action in Group A in Lithuania), made an appearance on ESPN.com's Daily Dime Live, and said this:

And now, in 2011, the proof is in the participation. Several of basketball's best international players are back in action in this Olympic qualifying year, after skipping the 2010 World Championships.

Dirk Nowitzki considers Germany's qualification for the 2008 Olympics one of the highlights of his career (he has said he cried like a baby after they qualified), and recently said "I've been to the Olympics and it was the best experience of my life." Dirk is back playing with Germany for the first time since 2008.

When Manu Ginobili announced his decision to skip the World Championships in 2010, he said it was because "I am just prioritizing London 2012 to Turkey 2010." At that time, he also said, "[M]y two previous experiences on the Olympics were the best thing that ever happened to me as an athlete, including the NBA rings, European championships and everything I lived on my almost 15 years of career." Manu is back playing with Argentina for the first time since 2008.

Tony Parker, who recently called playing in the Olympics "a childhood dream," is back for France after skipping the World Championships to rest, as is Pau Gasol for Spain. Andrei Kirilenko helped Russia qualify for the 2008 Olympics by leading them to a surprise 2007 EuroBasket gold medal; he's back with the national team for the first time since Beijing.

In my mind, there is no doubt: the Olympics are the most prestigious international basketball competition in the world, more important than the World Championships.

I do believe the Worlds were once more important, but I think things have changed. As with most things regarding the evolutions and revolutions of international basketball of the past generation, I believe this change stems back to the Dream Team at the 1992 Olympics. The Dream Team is often cited as an inspiration and touchstone for international players. Their stage was the Olympics, and that's where the best players now most want to be.

2. 24 teams at EuroBasket, but only 12 at the Olympics?
The European soccer championships, aka the Euro, are one of the most popular sporting events on the planet. And, as much as I think basketball is the greatest sport on the planet, I'm under no illusion that hoops are remotely as popular as soccer on the Continent.

Yet, Euro 2012 will have a field of 16 nations and EuroBasket 2011 has a field of 24 nations. Am I the only one who thinks this doesn't make any sense, that fewer nations compete in football than basketball in the European championships?

Granted, the football Euro will expand to 24 starting in 2016, but still, 24 countries in the EuroBasket makes for an unnecessarily bloated field. There's certainly great depth in the quality of national teams in European basketball, but 16 is a sufficient number for the field.

Many observers voiced complaints last summer that the World Championships were unnecessarily bloated with a 24-team field. I think there's sufficient quality around the world to support 24 in the Worlds, though I would tinker with the allocations by continental federations a little bit. But 24 at the EuroBasket? Too much.

Still, the most ridiculous field is that of the Olympic Games - especially given that this is now the world's most important basketball competition - still stuck at a mere 12 nations because the IOC has denied FIBA's request to expand to 16, to date.

That's 12 nations, even with one spot allocated to hosts, and spots reserved for the champions of Africa and Asia, as they should be, in my opinion, but those nations are not consistently competitive with the best of Europe and the Americas. Another spot is allocated to the winner of an Australia-New Zealand series, which essentially leaves eight spots for the best teams from Europe and the Americas.

There's just far, far too much basketball talent in the world - both individual and team - which deserves to be showcased during and allowed to compete in the Olympic Games. C'mon, IOC, this is dumb.

Were I the world basketball czar, the Olympics and the EuroBasket would have 16 teams apiece, and the World Championships would have 24, with an allocation slightly more favorable to Europe and the Americas.

3. Why so many games? Why 11 games in 19 days? Why the pre-Olympic qualifying tournament?
Why is the 24-team EuroBasket field such a big deal to me? Well, Tuesday was a day of rest after six days of basketball. But if you're worried that you've missed the action to date, don't fret: there are still a full 12 days of competition left.

EuroBasket is a 19-day competition which requires its top teams to play 11 games. With the uncertainty about when I'll see NBA basketball again, I'm certainly hungry for competitive basketball, but that's just too much. It's unfair to the players - especially to the marquee players who play through the grueling NBA season - to have to play that much in the summer, especially when it's just unnecessary due to the expanded field. A maximum tournament length of 9 games and 16 days should not be exceeded.

What's further ridiculous is that the qualifying is not completed this summer. By the end of this year's tournaments, 9 countries will have qualified for the Olympics, and another 12 will qualify for the FIBA World Olympic Qualifying Tournament next July to determine the final three spots.

In 2008, Dirk and Germany had to play five games in eight days in July to qualify for the Olympics, followed by the Olympics (potentially 15 days, though Germany was eliminated after 9). Imagine if that had been on top of one of Dirk's playoff runs to the NBA Finals.

Again, it is unfair to ask so much of the players, especially when it is just unnecessary. There's no reason the qualifying process can't be finished now. In 2008, European teams won all three spots at the qualifying tournament. Europe clearly deserves at least one extra bid, for starters. If there are playoffs for the last two spots at all, they should be single games in which 4th place in Europe plays 2nd in Oceania (i.e. Australia-New Zealand loser), and 5th place in Europe plays 3rd place in the Americas.

4. Why overlap Euro & Americas (& Oceania)?
I can only imagine that this couldn't be avoided for some reason, but as a hoops fan not knowing when he's going to get his next NBA meal, I'm frustrated that the EuroBasket and the FIBA Americas tournament are running concurrently.

Why can't we get two weeks of one followed by two weeks of another? I want to appreciate the old lions of Argentina's Golden Generation getting their due at home, but the mayhem in Lithuania is too entertaining to be pre-empted. For that matter, I wish that even the three-game Australia-New Zealand series to decide the FIBA Oceania bid - running Wednesday-Friday-Sunday this week - weren't running concurrently, as well. I'd watch that, too.

I just want to watch your games, FIBA. Give me a chance to keep up.

To that end, I wish FIBA Europe would take a page out of the book of the NCAA Tournament. During the first round of the EuroBasket, there were often as many as four games running concurrently, with multiple compelling matchups overlapping more often than not. Staggering the tip-off times of games by 15 or 30 minutes would be helpful in allowing hungry basketball fans to catch as many of the games as possible.

5. I wish I knew how to quit you, trapezoid lane!

It's the first major FIBA competition without the trapezoid lane, and I gotta say that I miss the weird old dog. It's a tough one for me, as I'm in favor of the standardization of basketball rules across the globe, but I really liked how the trapezoid opened up the floor, and forced big men to have to have skill in addition to strength.

6. Frustrated by the draws, but excited for the basketball ahead
I'm frustrated that the lopsided nature of the EuroBasket draw will likely leave two deserving teams from Group E (France, Serbia, Spain, Turkey, Lithuania, Germany) out of the quarterfinals, and Dirk Nowitzki likely out of the Olympics. But the bad luck of the draw is the luck of the draw to a certain degree.

Don't get me wrong, despite the frustrations I've voiced in this space, I think we've had a great EuroBasket to date, and I fully expect things will only get more compelling form here. I can't wait to see how things shake out in Lithuania, and also at the FIBA Americas tournament in Argentina.

OK, enough musings and rantings on international sport for one night. Don't get me going on the IAAF's idiotic false-start rule change which robbed the world of a Usain Bolt World Championships 100 in his prime....

• Also today on The Painted Area: EuroBasket 2011 second round reset & analysis

FIBA Analysis (9/5): Greece-Croatia, Russia-Slovenia

2011-09-05T21:58:00.000-07:00

GREECE 74, CROATIA 69

Greece held off a Croatian rally after being up 20 points in the 1st half and effectively bounced Croatia from EuroBasket. Croatia methodically chipped away at the lead during the 2nd half and got within three points with just over a minute left.

Greek PF Antonis Fotsis (17 pts) had his jumper working today to the tune of five made 3PT. Fotsis hit threes in transition and spotting up in the halfcourt. And none bigger than a 3-pointer at the top of the key coming off a down screen to push the lead to 69-63 with 1:00 left. Fotsis' help defense was on point once again.

Greece made a concerted effort to pound the ball into Giannis Bourousis in the post with mixed results. He only shot 3-for-10 but did draw some fouls down low and finished with 10 points. He definitely took advantage of the weaker Ante Tomic a few times. Thought Bourousis was more spry on the defensive end then he's been in the past.

Nick Calathes (Mavs own rights) had a nice floor game with 9 pts, 8 rebs, 4 assts & 4 stls. Thought he controlled the tempo well on the offensive end and rarely forced action. Made two great passes late in the game: nice feed to a rolling Kostas Koufos for an alley-oop lay-in, and a lob over the zone to a baseline-cutting Mike Bramos that gave Greece a 66-58 lead with 2:45 remaining.

Greece knew they wouldn't generate points as easily without Vassilis Spanoulis and Sofo Schortsanitis around. So they made a concerted effort to get back to their old grind-it-out, defense-first ways. They are currently holding opponents to 64.8 ppg (3rd best) on 37% shooting (1st).

Those are former Coach Giannakis-era numbers. Keeping the scores in the low-70s/mid-60s. Though this year's team doesn't generate quite the number of turnovers that those mid-2000s Hellas teams did.

But this year's team does rebound better than those former teams. The Greeks lead EuroBasket in rebounding at 40 rpg and are currently outrebounding their opponents by a +7.8 rpg margin.

Stanko Barac (Pacers own rights) came off the bench to give Croatia a huge lift, especially in the 2nd half. Croatia established Stanko on the blocks often where he made a few buckets, but it was his trusty mid-range jumper that helped Croatia rally. Barac buried three 17-footers plus a huge 3pt. make that cut Greece's lead to five with 2:00 left. Stanko also added two nice blocks.

Ante Tomic (Jazz own rights) was once again efficient in his time on the floor--10 pts on 4-of-4 and 5 rebs in 22 minutes. But he was limited by four fouls and could not hold his ground vs. Bourousis. Tomic was one of the top players in the opening round, averaging 16.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.2 in 25 mins/game. Ante led the opening round in FG pct. at 74%. We examined Tomic & his NBA prospects on Saturday.

NJ Net draftee Bojan Bogdanovic had a quiet night (4 pts on 2-of-7) when his team needed more from him. Bojan missed two crucial 3PA late in the game and scored both of his buckets in transition.

Bojan's Euro '11 was an uneven affair where he started off the tourney dropping 27 on Finland but then scored a total of only 26 points in the last three games. Bojan's numbers were pretty good overall--13 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2 spg, 48% FG pct, 41% 3PA. But his 3pt. numbers are a little skewed as he hit 9-of-12 3PA in the first two games and 0-of-10 over the last three games.

Did not see enough post-up or iso calls for Bojan. Bojan is very effective going one-on-one backing in his defender or taking him off the dribble going both ways. Seems like Croatia forgot about Bojan sometimes.

Marko Popovic did his best poor man's Juan Navarro imitation by tossing up multiple runners and a few pull-up jumpers for 14 pts.

There's always an underachieving team or two in every tourney, and Croatia wins the crown this year. Had three top-level Euro scorers at their disposal with Bogdanovic, Popovic and Tomic. The injury to Marko Tomas did not help but there was still plenty of talent to have grabbed a top-three spot in Group C.

RUSSIA 65, SLOVENIA 64

In the de facto Group D championship game, Sergey Monya hit a pull-up 18-footer with :02 on the clock to give Russia the win.

Both teams were clanking shots all game. Very little consistency to either team's offense besides the start of the game for Slovenia, who started off the game looking sharp for the first five minutes. Then the Russian defense tightened up and made the Slovenian offense look ragged the rest of the game.

Slovenia was held to 37.5% shooting and forced into 15 TOs. The only thing Russia did not do well on the defensive end was protect the backboard--15 off. rebounds for Slovenia.

Russia strung out the pick-n-roll, rarely letting any of the speedy Slovenian guards get deep penetration. Weakside help was always in the right place. When the ball got around the block area, a second man collapsed onto the ball-handler. When there were attempts around the rim, multiple sets of arms were challenging the shot. When a defender went to help, another defender rotated to fill the area that was vacated by the initial help defender. This is typical Russian defense.

The Russian defense leads the field in points allowed, 64.8 ppg, and are third in defensive FG pct, 41%. This is nothing new for a David Blatt-led Russian team. What's a little surprising is Russia is allowing roughly 49% on 2PA. They usually hold their opponents in the low 40s. Though, as usual, they are shutting down the 3pt. line (27%).

No one on Russia was particularly effective on the offensive end besides Andrey Vorontsevich, who netted 18 pts mostly coming on cuts or put-backs.

Goran Dragic did not have much impact in this game as Russia neutralized his speed. Erazem Lorbek was the best Slovenian player of the day but did most of his scoring in the 1st half.

Lorbek's deadly post game was on display with a couple of turnarounds plus an absolutely sick move where he looked like he would finish with a sweet up-n-under move, then reversed field on his pivot foot into a hook. He's as skilled as any big in the world--his footwork is unparalleled. Erazem also floated out to bang down two 3pt. makes.

Both these teams have not really played up to their capabilities in Group D play, but were lucky the competition was so subpar. They are still the two best teams in the second round Group F and should be expected to get quarterfinal bids.

FIBA Analysis (9/4): Spain-Lithuania, Serbia-Germany

2011-09-04T20:43:00.000-07:00

SPAIN 91, LITHUANIA 79

In Spain's first true test of the tourney, they sent a message that they can make any team look foolish when they are locked in. In a possible gold-medal game preview, Spain took control of this game early and manhandled the previously unbeaten Lithuanians. The final score was not indicative of this one-sided affair.

This game was over early as Spain played some of their best ball ever in the first half by putting up 62 points on 57% shooting. And Team España did most of its damage behind the 3pt. arc: 10-of-16 from deep in the half. Spain came into the game only hitting a total of 11 3PA and was near the bottom the 3pt. pct. leaderboard (22%). They finished the game 13-of-26.

Spain forced turnovers--nine in the 1st half--with vintage Euro '09 type activity. Spain also kept its turnovers in check (7) after averaging 14 TOpg in the first three games.

The game had a heavy dose of NBA talent but that talent was concentrated mostly on one team.

Pau Gasol continued on his quest for another EuroBasket MVP award with 17 pts, 4 rebs & 3 assts. Pau did his scoring in transition as a trailer, as an alley-oop finisher and even tossed in two 3pt. makes. Pau is currently fifth in ppg (21.8) and third in FG pct. (65%). Marc Gasol (8 pts. 8 rebs, 4 assts) added a few nice scores around the rim and, like Pau, moved the ball well.

Jose Calderon (12 pts, 4 assts, 4 rebs, 2 stls) had a very nice game throughout and made positive things happen early. Controlled the tempo and made his jumper when needed (3-of-8 3PA).

Juan Navarro's overall shooting had been a little off before this game but the best pure scorer in Europe went off on Sunday. Juan got into patented La Bomba mode and banged home jumpers spotting up, pulling up in transition or stepping-back. Juan ripped 5-of-9 3-pointers to lead Spain with 22 pts.

Rudy Fernandez (8 pts, 5 rebs, 4 assts, 3 stls) pitched in with his usual frenetic brand of ball. Rudy was picking up steals, chasing down rebounds, throwing alley-oops off the dribble and knocking down his open looks (2-for-3 on 3PA). Rudy always plays well for Team España and is a noticeably different player when he's allow to fly around the court rather then being hemmed in like he was in Portland.

Serge Ibaka was highly efficient off the bench, adding 15 pts on 7-of-9, 9 rebs & 2 blks in. Serge hit a couple of foul-line jumpers, a few put-backs and a few dunks--one as the oop to Rudy's alley.

Ricky Rubio had 0 points and 0 assists in 15 minutes. Ricky currently has a total of nine points and six assists through four games. And I don't think TWolves (or NBA) fans should be that discouraged.

We addressed in our Euro preview it was likely Ricky would not impress in this tourney for a variety of reasons. First off, he has to share minutes with Calderon. Plus Spain has so many options to keep happy that Ricky is low in the pecking order. Ricky needs the ball in his hands a ton and to be allowed to improvise. On Spain, he's more of a caretaker.

La Bomba, the Gasols and Rudy all need their touches. And Rudy and Navarro handle the ball a fair amount, so Ricky's duties are to get out of the way. His low assist numbers are not surprising, though his shooting numbers (4-for-15, 0-for-7 3PA) give you pause.

Toronto Raps draftee Jonas Valanciunas was Lithuania's best player--(13 pts, 3 assts, 2 rebs) and made an immediate impact the moment he entered the game late in the 1st quarter. Maybe his most impressive play on the day was when he faced up Pau on the left block, gave him a ball-fake then drove middle for a running hook. Also made a nice block on the ball vs. Marc. He also tossed a few nice passes.

Love Jonas' willingness to mix it up with veterans considering his young age and lack of bulk. He showed this type of aggressiveness and activity at Lietuvos Rytas. However, that overaggressiveness leads to constant foul trouble, Jonas' biggest weakness. Four fouls limited him 16 minutes on Sunday. Jonas is averaging 3.3 fouls/game and 2.3 TOs/game in 12.7 mins/game.

Spain secured first place in Group A with win while Lithuania gets second.

SERBIA 75, GERMANY 64

Serbia's superior depth was too much for Dirk & the Germans. It's tough to rest against Serbia because they lose very little when they go to the bench.

Germany got the score within five points a few times in the 4th but Serbia responded quickly each time to keep Germany at bay.

Milos Teodosic (12 pts, 9 assts, 9 rebs) was a playmaking savant once again--put on a passing clinic. We mentioned this before, but he generates so many points for Serbia. The nine recorded assists don't tell the whole story. He set up at least 5-6 great scoring opportunities that were not converted. Then other passes led to a handful of drawn fouls.

Milos had a couple hit-ahead passes in transition, a few cross-court bullet passes and multiple precision bounce passes. Showcased his knack for waiting for better angles to develop on a well-timed alley-oop to Kosta Perovic. He great at holding up his dribble to do this. The best pure passer in the field (since Rubio is basically handcuffed) and leads Euro '11 with 7.8 apg.

He did force a few jumpers and has not been shooting the ball well at EuroBasket. But not concerned as Milos has proven he is a very dangerous shooter. Converted two runners/floaters, including a big make late in the 4th to stem Germany's rally.

Milos is only shooting 31% from the field and 23% behind the arc. He's much better than those numbers would suggest.

Initially I was not a huge fan of his game but he has won me over the last few years. Believe he could be a starter in the NBA. No doubt he will be a defensive liability. But he has good size (6-5), can move over to the 2-spot and has a quick release.

One of the best NBA prospects in Europe. The 24-year-old just signed a new contract with CSKA, though don't know the buyout stipulations.

Dusan Savanovic continued his strong EuroBasket play by banging down four 3-pointers on his way to 18 points. Nailed a crucial pick-n-pop 3pt. to push Serbia's lead to 69-61 with 2:00 left.

Dirk Nowitzki kept Germany in the game by doing Dirk stuff. Dirk hurt Serbia out of extended post-ups or isos all game, and was tough in the 4th. Dirk made a few of his patented right shoulder fall-aways and a few spin moves for scores. Also nailed two 3pts. at the top of the key off of down screens. Dirk finished with 25 pts & 6 rebs.

Chris Kaman's jumper was not falling but he was effective on the block. Kaman had success going to his countermoves to score in the post multiple times (11 pts). He also did his job on the boards--11 rebs--and currently leads Euro '11 in rebounding.

Serbia stays undefeated and meets undefeated France for the top spot in Group B. Germany is locked into 3rd place and will advance to the second round.

FIBA Analysis (9/3): Macedonia's McCalebb & Croatia's Tomic lead the way in Group C

2011-09-03T20:18:00.000-07:00

We take a look at two EuroBasket Group C games and focus on potentially NBA-caliber players (Ante Tomic and Bo McCalebb) who led their teams to critical wins in the tight Group C. Macedonia and Croatia are now tied with Greece atop Group C, all at 2-1.

CROATIA 87, MONTENEGRO 81

- 7-2 Ante Tomic (Jazz own rights) led Croatia with 26 pts (12-of-16), 8 rebs, & 4 assts in 35 minutes. It was nice to see Tomic get more than his normal 20 minutes per game on Saturday. Tomic has been very efficient through three games: 16.7 ppg on 71%, 7.7 rpg & 3 apg in 25 mins/game. Tomic is 2nd in FG pct. behind Pau Gasol.

Tomic showcased his full arsenal of offensive skills today: feathery touch, great passing skills, soft hands, good ball skills and impeccable footwork. Tomic scored the majority of his buckets as the roll man. Hit multiple short jumpers as the popper, including two sweet bankers. Also finished off multiple rolls usually going with his patented hybrid floater/lay-in. Dropped a pretty bounce pass from the high post to backdoor-cutting Dontaye "Mad Man" Draper.

Ante can do all the things that Pau Gasol can do. He's just not as wide or strong as Pau--narrow frame with a weak base. Can be easily shoved off his spots on both ends of the floor. Does not enjoy contact and will disappear for long stretches.

Pau is more of a defensive presence as well. For guy who is 7-2 with good mobility, Tomic's play on the defensive end is disappointing. You understand why he guards post-ups poorly but no real excuse for why he can't be a factor as a help defender. Never been much of a shot-blocker.

Skeptical if Tomic (currently with Real Madrid) can handle the physical rigors of being a starter in the league. But his skills are so good he needs a chance to prove himself in the NBA.

- Croatia's ball movement was terrific throughout. Picked apart the porous Montenegro defense all game. 26 of Croatia's 32 made FGA were assisted. Shot 50% overall and 10-for-26 from 3pt. land.

- NJ Net draftee Bojan Bogdanovic did not stand out today, with only six points on 3-of-5 after averaging 19.0 ppg in the first two games. But really can't criticize Bojan as Popovic and Tomic were making efficient use of their touches.

- Marko Popovic, the Croatian Vinnie Johnson, did what he does best: provide a scoring jolt off the bench (23 pts). Pretty much did all his damage behind the 3pt. line either spotting-up or off ball screens--7-for-11 behind the arc.

- Croatia's move to naturalize PG Dontaye Draper this year looks quite prescient now. Croatia lost starting PG Roko Ukic during training camp and they would have been hurting for a distributor without Draper around. Draper shredded the porous Montenegrin defense all game, creating good shot opportunities for his teammates.

Draper was the impetus for Croatia's crisp ball movement. Draper and Tomic worked the two-man games to perfection all game and Draper finished the game with 12 dimes with no turnovers. Draper is now ranked second in the tournament with seven assists per game.

- Montenegro's Nikola Pekovic never could find a rhythm in this game and finished with nine points in 23 minutes. Usually Montenegro pounds the ball into Pek, where he tends to dominate the opposition. But he never got the ball down low with any consistency and was further sidetracked when he picked up his third foul halfway through the 2nd quarter.

FYR of MACEDONIA 72, GREECE 58

Bo McCalebb and Macedonia's strong frontline keyed the FYR of Macedonia to a mild upset of their rival neighbor, Greece.

- Bo McCalebb continues to be the best non-NBA player in the field by dropping 27 pts & 4 assts vs. Greece. Like every other team in Europe, Greece just could not contain him. Had multiple blow-bys without the use of a ball screen. One time where he froze Nick Calathes with a hesitation dribble, then accelerated to rim, spinning Calathes around in the process. Put pressure on the defense and constantly drew fouls because of his speed (12-for-14 on FTs).

He did hit one nice pull-up jumper, but he did not shoot well from outside (1-for-6 on 3pt.). His jumper is the main sticking point of his game, which likely gives some NBA GMs pause. Poor mechanics that lead to a flat arc. He did shoot the long ball well during the club season, but in general, he's erratic.

McCalebb is currently ranked sixth in tournament with 21.0 points per game. The only players ahead of him are established NBA names Gasol, Parker, Nowitzki, Bargnani and Deng.

With Serbia's Milos Teodosic, Bo is one of the most coveted point guards currently playing in Europe. McCalebb is currently under a multi-year contract with Montepaschi Siena (Italy) (not sure about his buyout stipulations).

- A strength of Macedonia is the ability of their bigs to float out ,and they flashed their perimeter shooting prowess today. Pero Antic, Todor Gechevski and Gjorgij Chekovski combined to shoot 6-for-9 behind the 3pt. arc.

- PF Pero Antic had a quality all-around outing with 12 pts & 8 rebs. Antic loves to float to the perimeter where he often lines up his man in an iso play. He hit a 3pt. over his man in isolation and hit a pick-n-pop 3pt. Antic's physical play on the defensive end, particularly on Antonis Fotsis, aided Macedonia's cause.

- The Macedonia defense was solid, especially up front. Made Greece's looks around the rim as difficult as possible. Greece had issues finishing all game, missing plenty of makeable shots. Gechevski did a nice job all-around plugging up the painted area and defending one-on-one on Bourousis.

- Greece continues to have issues shooting the ball from range. Only 21% on 3PA today and are currently shooting 24.5% through three games (4th worst). Also, turnovers seem to be another problem--Greece is currently averaging 16.3 TOpg, 3rd worst. Kind of strange since they kept their TOs low last year with V. Spanoulis and Sofo Schortsanitis, their two major TO machines.

- Next to McCalebb, 7-0 Greek center Giannis Bourousis is another highly-coveted NBA prospect. Bourousis struggled to finish off his looks around the rim (3-of-11). He did make a couple of nice hooks, and as always, cleaned the glass--10 rebounds.

FIBA Analysis (9/1): Canada-Dom. Republic, Russia-Georgia

2011-09-01T21:46:00.000-07:00

(FIBA AMERICAS) CANADA 73, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 72

Great win for Team Canada. Still early, but this win goes a long way toward securing a bid to the Pre-Olympic tourney.

- Canada's defense was good once again after a strong effort vs. Brazil. Held Dom. Rep. to a measly 34% from the floor. Strong defense has been the one constant for the Maple Leaf brigade over the last few years. Usually stout in the interior.

- Joel Anthony, Aaron Doornekamp and Levon Kendall set the tone with hard, physical defense on Al Horford and JM Martinez.

- Would have thought Anthony would have primarily checked Horford, but Coach Rautins decided to have Joel primarily guard JM Martinez. This moved worked out well. It allowed Joel to sit in the middle of the lane. Doornekamp held up surprisingly well vs. Horford, especially for a guy who's normally a SF.

Kendall bodied up well on the block--he uses his chest well--and his help was on target. He drew a few charges as well. This is what Kendall always does for Team Canada.

- Canada's offense wasn't great, but much improved from the ineptitude of the day before vs. Brazil. 42% from the field is not so good, but 43.4% on 3PA was crucial to Canada's cause. We mentioned in yesterday's post that Coach Rautins needed to focus more on setting up his shooters off of screens. The screen or handoff-screen action worked well today.

- Andy Rautins hit two 3PT off of dribble handoffs and two others off of flare screens. Also added a nice step-back 3pt. in the right corner. Keep those screens and/or handoffs coming.

- Carl English finally got going with 12 pts. Canada needs him in the flow as he's probably their best offensive threat. Hit a couple quick dribble pull-ups (a 3pt. & a long 2pt.) and hit another 3pt. off a flare screen. English is capable of creating quick pull-ups for himself.

- Spurs rookie PG Cory Joseph (6 pts, 4 assts) gave them some nice minutes providing a modicum of dribble penetration that Canada badly needs.

- Al Horford continues (unsurprisingly) to be the Dominican's best all-around player. Shot only 5-for-16 but did have 17 pts, 11 rebs, 3 blks, 3 stls & 3 assts. One assist came where he led the break and dropped off a pass to a trailing Eulis Baez. Showed off his reliable mid-range jumper a few times.

- Chuckie Villanueva had a forgetable eight minutes of floor time. Four fouls (two offensive fouls on ill-advised drives), four TOs and a couple of forced shots. Against Venezuela, Chuck's four fouls limited him to 16 minutes. Chuck's 2009 Americas play was a mixed bag because foul trouble got him out of rhythm.

- Francisco Garcia failed to get in the flow and disappeared for long stretches. Only had six points until the last five secs of the game when he hit two 3PA, one meaningless. Fran's shooting has been a little off the mark through three games. Needs to get back to his '09 Americas self when he was draining bombs from deep and flying around on the defensive end.

- Jack Martinez continues to be an interior force in FIBA play. Martinez has always been a beast on the offensive glass (9) and today was no different: had four put-backs (three were tip-ins). He also drew fouls around the rim (6-for-11 FTA).

(EUROBASKET): RUSSIA 65, GEORGIA 58

Not much to expand on about this game besides the obvious: Russia's defense is very, very good.

- Andrei Kirilenko (20 pts, 4 rebs, 3 stls) made a killing off of baseline cuts all game. Shredded the backline of Georgia's defense, mostly doing damage getting behind its zone. Scored off of two hybrid flash cut/quick posts, including one that drew a foul to put Russia up seven points with just under two minutes left. Drew fouls attacking the rim. Could've had more points but was errant from the FT stripe (2-for-7).

- Timo Mozgov gave Russia quality play during his 19 minutes of floor time. Was a solid defensive presence, particularly bodying up Pachulia very well. And was a perfect 3-for-3 on offense with a put-back dunk and two nice post scores by flashing middle. Though his tendency to take bad angles and general over-aggressiveness led to three fouls.

- They never let Zaza Pachulia get off and held him to 3-of-11 shooting. Would often force Georgia up against the shot clock. Suffocated Georgia in the 2nd Q., holding them to 11 pts and pressuring them into 6-7 TOs.

- Generally, anytime the ball moves into the basket area, I guarantee you'll have a second or third Russian in the vicinity. Their backline help is always superb. Then you have to be careful because Russia has someone like Monya or Kirilenko coming from behind to change your shot while you're being held up by the interior help. Multiple long-armed athletes pounce on the man with the ball.

- Georgia was held to 38.5% shooting. Russia always has sterling defensive 2PA numbers--usually in low 40%. It's been this way since David Blatt took over. They usually shutdown the 3pt. line as well, but were a little off today allowing Georgia to shoot 37%.

- Georgia was able to stick with Russia late because their zone was rather effective (besides Kirilenko's cuts), particularly in the 2nd half. Georgia held Russia scoreless for the first six minutes of the 4th quarter. Held them to 25 in the 2nd half using a heavy diet of zone.

- Mentioned in our preview that Russia's perimeter shooting is nothing special and they shot only 31.6% from deep vs, Georgia. Five of those six 3PA came from Vitali Fridzon and Sergey Monya, their two best shooters. Russia shot 29% in their first game. Just something to watch for the rest of the tourney.

FIBA Analysis (8/31): Serbia-Italy, Brazil-Canada

2011-09-01T03:07:00.000-07:00

Some observations of August 31st FIBA action.

(EuroBasket) SERBIA 80, ITALY 68:

- Recent Timberwolves draftee Milan Macvan made a killing (14 pts on 6-of-7 & 8 rebs) moving to the open spots. Made three short jumpers off of timely flash cuts just underneath the foul line. Filled the lane nicely for an easy transition score. How do you say "Johnny-on-the-spot" in Serbian? Macvan's b-ball IQ has always been his strength, helps him make up for poor physical tools.

- Milenko Tepic, not known as a scorer or shooter, came up big with 15 pts, and 3-of-4 on 3PA. Had four assists including a sweet slingshot bounce pass across lane to a cutting Macvan. Also got a dunk off a nice backdoor play.

- Milos Teodosic's playmaking brilliance helped Serbia grab control of the game early in the 4th after Italy closed the gap in the 3rd. Like he has for the last two years, generates so many points for Serbia (15 pts, 8 assts). Drilled his jumpers with his patented quick release, hit a few leaners, had a bucket off a nice baseline spin move on an extended post and found the open man. He's so good at waiting for better passing angles to develop. He will hold up his dribble or back his dribble out to wait for angles to develop.

- Serbia was switching everything and their bigs held up well on Italy's perimeter players. Nenad Krstic tends to be a solid all-around defender in FIBA ball.

- Andrea Bargnani didn't start the game for some reason, but did some nice things for Italy: 22 pts on 8-of-15. Made some scores out of extended post-ups. Made a nice move on a paint post-up where he shoulder-faked into a lay-in. Maybe most important of all, he grabbed nine rebounds and blocked two shots. Two things Italy desperately needs from him.

- Danilo Galinari helped Bargnani with 15 points off of jumpers and some attacks to the basket, though it looked like Gallo tweaked a knee or ankle. Tough to recover fully with the relentless FIBA schedule.

- Marco Belinelli (2-for-11 shooting) forced up multiple shots with hands in his face. Doubt that is terribly surprising to anyone reading this.

- Former USC PG Dan Hackett caused some problems with his penetration. Finished through contact well. Used a quick crossover to go opposite a ball screen and slashed to the rim. Driving and finishing is his strength. Think Italy needs to encourage Dan to penetrate more. Should try a little bit more drive-n-kick action with the shooters they have.

- Commend Italy on a solid effort on the defensive end. Don't have the most naturally gifted defenders, but Coach Pianigiani does get decent effort. His Siena teams are successful because of an active defense. You wish he had more big bodies at his disposal.

- Italy only shot 2-for-17 from long range. They're better than those numbers. Can't afford to shoot like that vs. Germany.

- Italy's zone was effective for stretches, especially the latter half of the 3rd which allowed Italy to get back into the game.

- Italy definitely should run some zone vs. Germany. Try to neutralize Germany's interior prowess and collapse around Dirk. However, have to be judicious with how often they run zone as Germany has multiple shooters.

- Italy didn't totally get owned on the boards (-5), which is encouraging. They're going to have to give the same effort vs. Germany to keep the rebounding battle in a reasonable margin. Germany has four 7-footers who all board well.

(FIBA Americas) BRAZIL 69, CANADA 57:

- Good lord, this game was tough to take in. The offensive play was brutal for most of the game. Thankfully, Brazil/FC Barcelona PG Marcelo Huertas provided some semblance of offensive creativity to the mix.

- Huertas (17 pts on 8-for-12, 6 assts & 5 rebs) saved the day for Brazil. It seemed Coach Magnano was trying to make things hard for his squad for most of the game, instead of making the easy decision to let Huertas control the ball.

Magnano finally put the ball back in Marcelo's hands in the 4th quarter. Huertas single-handedly sparked Brazil to a 14-0 run that sealed the game. In a five-minute stretch in the 4th, Huertas was responsible for all 14 points: he made four baskets for eight points and assisted on three 2pt. baskets. Huertas' probing led to buckets for his teammates or allowed him to unleash his trusty floater a few times.

Should be a steady diet of Huertas running pick-n-rolls, preferably with Splitter, from here on out for Brazil. Exhaust it. Huertas has taken his game to the next level over the last few years and he's one of the best points outside the NBA. We're big fans and believe he can be a quality rotation player in the NBA. He has the speed and size (6-3) to translate his game over.

- Tiago Splitter had a rough outing--had trouble converting from the field (2-of-9) and the FT line (1-of-5). His dodgy touch is the one thing that holds him back from being a truly special player. He should be Chip Engelland's number-one project.

- No surprise Canada's offense was inept. There has been no one on the roster since Steve Nash retired who can create offense. No one can dribble penetrate and the bigs have very limited post-up ability. No one needs to be double-teamed. So the defense doesn't get stretched apart. When you can't draw extra defensive help on any type of offensive action on the pro level, you are in trouble.

- I know there's not much Leo Rautins can do to coax scoring out of his team, but thought there was too much post-up action today. The one positive for the Canadian offense is guys who can hit perimeter jumpers. The point guards can't dribble-penetrate so drive-n-kick to set up spot-shooters is out of the question.

Canada needs to focus on setting up guys curling off screens. Andy Rautins and Carl English are good catching-n-shooting off screens. Milk this action. If the shooters get hot, an extra defender might have to jump the screens, opening up cutting angles.

Leo has added more off-ball screening over the last few years, knowing his team can't do much off of ball screens. Canada probably runs the least amount of pick-n-roll of any FIBA team. Leo needs to focus on getting his shooters free, instead of post-ups that likely won't go anywhere.

- Just hold on, Canadian fans, your offensive woes should be remedied in about 3-4 years. You've got some young studs in the pipeline (Tristan Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Myck Kabongo, Anthony Bennett, Khem Birch) who can lead you to the upper echelon of FIBA basketball.

EuroBasket 2011 Preview: Group D Team Capsules

2011-08-31T05:16:00.000-07:00

• EuroBasket 2011 Preview: Overview | Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D
• 2011 FIBA Americas Preview

Group D games will be played in Klaipeda from August 31-Sept. 5
(In the U.S., every game can be viewed for free via ESPN3.com.)

Group D
(predicted order of finish - top 3 advance)
1) Slovenia
2) Russia
3) Georgia
4) Ukraine
5) Belgium
6) Bulgaria

Waver back and forth between picking Russia or Slovenia to win this group. Gave Slovenia the nudge, but it's basically a tie between them. Clear dropoff after Russia and Slovenia. Feel pretty comfortable picking Georgia as the favorite for 3rd place and a spot in the second round. Belgium, Bulgaria and Ukraine are roughly on the same level and not that far behind Georgia.

SLOVENIA:
Key Absences: Bostjan Nachbar; Beno Udrih; Primo Brezec; Gaspar Vidmar

This team can hurt opposing defenses in so many ways. A bottomless bucket of offensive options. They have looked very crisp in the exhibitions.

Their spacing has been disciplined. Have shredded defenses with hard cuts (tons on baseline/backdoor) and deft passing. Seems to be a lot more off-ball screens this year. Nothing new for Slovenia as they usually have very crisp ball movement; constantly making the extra pass. But in the prep phase they seem to have taken it up a notch.

Plenty of shooters dot the roster. Can put four guys on the floor together who have range out to 18 feet. Often keep the basket area clear--some 5-out alignments. Will often use handoffs to set up side pick/rolls.

Tremendous speed on the perimeter (Goran & Zoran Dragic, Jaka Lakovic & Saso Ozbolt) makes this team dangerous in transition. The guards have the ability to blow-by into the lane.

If the perimeter guys are off their game, no worries, Slovenia has one of the most offensively gifted frontlines led by.Erazem Lorbek and Matjaz Smodis. Scary how well-rounded and refined these two big guys are.

6-11 Erazem Lorbek was the second-best player behind Pau at EuroBasket '09 and is one of the best non-NBA players in the field. Terrific all-around skill set.

He can put defenders in the blender with an endless array of post moves. Uses impeccable footwork to score on spin moves, lefty hooks, righty hooks, turnaround jumpers, and up/unders. Uses a fake reverse spin effectively either on his post moves or driving the ball.

Can draw bigs to perimeter where he can shoot with range, pass or even drive the ball. The only thing holding him back from NBA riches is a lack of athleticism. Spurs own his rights.

Matjaz Smodis is another multi-skilled big with nice post moves, passing skills & shooting range. Smodis' career has been sidetracked by injuries over the last few years but he's shown in the prep phase he still has a few tricks left. Smodis and Lorbek can pick apart openings with passes. Can run pick-n-pop with both guys.

Goran Dragic leads the speedy perimeter crew and has looked nice in prep games. Dragic will get a big chunk of playmaking duties and his penetration opens up some great looks for his teammates. Expect to see some whirling-dervish type plays in the lane from Goran. Has been passing the ball well in exhibitions. Also allows Slovenia to get out in transition.

Jaka Lakovic is a veteran combo guard who's a danger to shoot coming off screens. Lakovic can run the point for short stretches but you need to cap his PG minutes. Lakovic can sometimes make careless decisions with the ball--gets too sped up.

SG Saso Ozbolt is a bouncy athlete who can be counted on to make shots off the dribble or off screens.

Combo guard Samo Udrih is not as athletic as the other guards, but he's a nice antidote to the speedsters as he handles the ball with a controlled pace. Samo can hit jumpers.

Real Madrid's Mirza Begic has got some post moves himself. Begic has a nice hook and a soft turnaround. Mirza's 7-3 frame makes him a quality shot-blocker.

Uros Slokar (ex-Raptor) plays the role of a four-spreader (stretch-4) and will occasionally mix in a lefty hook around the rim. Have the ability to really stretch out a defense thanks to bigs who can float out like Smodis, Lorbek, & Slokar.

The small-forward position took a hit when Boki Nachbar had to pull out during training camp. Boki has played very well for Slovenia over the last few years, usually scoring in double figures and grabbing boards. Slovenia will try to fill the void with a Goran's younger brother, Zoran.

SG/SF Zoran Dragic makes an impact in the game with his speed--has a better burst than his brother. Has been effective cutting in the prep phase, particularly backdoor cuts. Zoran's athleticism makes him a nightmare in transition and a disruptive defender.

Combo forward 6-6 Goran Jagodnik, a tough vet who hustles, brings physical defense and hits open jumpers. 37-year-old Goran wins the award for oldest player in the field.

This team has threats inside and out. They can shoot, attack in the half-court or transition and have a wealth of post-up options. Though, the shooting ability at the SF position is dicey.

Should be a lock for the second round and a spot in the quarterfinals should be expected. A spot in the semis and finals? Sure, a distinct possiblity.

Slovenia were up six points in the '09 semis before losing to Serbia in OT. And that was with an injury-riddled lineup with no Goran or Smodis that was playing back-to-back nights while Serbia had a day off.

Check out NBA Playbook's scouting report on Slovenia

RUSSIA:
Key Absences: Sasha Kaun; Alexey Zhukanenko

Russia can stay competitive with any team in this field (including Spain) thanks to exceptional team defense and a brilliant tactician on the sidelines, David Blatt. Next to Serbia's Ivkovic, Blatt is the best coach in the tourney.

It all starts with defense for Russia. Should have one of the best defenses in the field of 24. Their help & recovery is always tight. Always shut down the painted area and guard the 3pt. arc as well as any team. You don't get easy shots against this team--they challenge everything.

Blatt's willing to try all types of things, especially on the defensive end. And he's a great bench coach adept at in-game adjustments. Russia has a deep, athletic squad with good size at every position

Expect Blatt to implement different types of zones, sometimes it's hard to decipher what the hell they're in--amoeba-type matchup zones.

The scary thing is how good Russia has been defensively the last two summers without Andrei Kirilenko and Vik Khryapa, their two best natural defenders. Kirilenko and Khryapa will often be given free reign to float around on defense like free safeties.

The forward rotation of Kirilenko, Khryapa, Sergey Monya and Andrey Vorontsevich is one of the best in field. All are 6-9 athletes who can play multiple positions, pass, rebound and defend.

Would not categorize Sergey Monya as a deadly shooter (though he shot 50% on 3PA last summer), but his jumper is the most reliable of the forwards. Monya is a premier help defender--one of the best at Euro '09.

6-9 Andrey Vorontsevich (CSKA) played well last summer (9 ppg, 6.5 rpg) in the absence of Kirilenko and Khryapa. Andrey's a nice athlete who will crash the offensive glass and post-up on occasion for Russia. Vorontsevich can hit open jumpers at a decent rate, but not great.

What holds this team back from being truly special is the lack of pure scoring threats. Kirilenko will be their primary option offensively. Expect post-ups for Kirilenko, who can be effective down low in FIBA play.

When Kirilenko is your best scoring option, you know there will be extended stretches where points are hard to come by.

To their credit, they run nice offensive sets with nice ball movement--some Princeton-style stuff presumably influenced from Blatt's college days there. Spacing is usually good and they generally keep the basket area open. This offense does help open up some easy looks, but it can only do so much with this talent.

Timofey Mozgov struggled to adjust to the NBA game, but had a nice Worlds tourney leading Russia with 13 ppg in 20 mpg. But can Timo stay on the floor for extended minutes? Mozgov led '09 EuroBasket in fouls with 4 per game, and averaged 3.4 last year.

Timo is a finishing machine as a roll man. Also, dangerous on the offensive glass where he's adept at put-backs. Otherwise, limited on the offensive end. Timo can be a deterrent defensively but takes too many bad angles which lead to fouls.

The center rotation is a little unsettled with Sasha Kaun out. Kahn's 15-20 minutes will be sorely missed because of Mozgov's attraction to fouls. Khryapa and Kirilenko might see some minutes at center. Reserve Nikita Shabalkin will see some burn at the 5-spot as well.

The athletic Sergey Bykov can get to the rim, but he's just an inconsistent finisher when he gets there. His ball-handling duties need to be monitored as he makes some dreadful decisions with the ball--will just throw passes into traffic. He's a streaky shooter.

Bykov will split time with Anton Ponkrashov, a big, methodical PG with superb distributing skills. Ponkrashov is not a good shooter or athlete, but is a sneaky driver who can draw fouls.

Starting SG Vitali Fridzon is the best shooter on the team and will get some screens set for him. Reserve guard Dimitry Khvonstov gave them nice minutes running the pick-n-roll off the bench last summer. Can hit jumpers fairly well.

Combo guard Alexey Shved finally won over Blatt after being cut last summer. 6-6 Shved is a rangy athlete who has an advanced understanding how to run pick/roll. Combines a nice handle (crossovers & hesitation dribbles) with good passing skills. He's probably a better pull-up shooter than spot shooter. Has a little spice to his game.

Would not really call this team a good outside-shooting team. They're alright, but some of their guys are inconsistent.

Russia should have little difficulty moving on to the second round. Then, expect Russia to earn a playoff-round spot in the quarterfinals out of Group F. From there, things get tougher. Blatt worked magic in 2007 and this roster is probably just as good. A top-six finish is very doable and a medal is a possibility.

GEORGIA:

Georgia has benefited as much as any team from the luck of the draw. If they were in Group A or B, no chance at advancing to the second round. But being placed in Group D gives them a great shot at the second round. Phoenix Suns asst. coach Igor Kokoshkov leads this team with multiple shooters and impressive athletes.

Zaza Pachulia is Georgia's main man. Plenty of post touches for the big-headed banger. Is effective getting deep post position and can turn middle or drop-step. Zaza's hard to keep off the off. glass and guards the block, not bad defending p/n/r either.

Tornike Shengelia and Viktor Sanikidze give Georgia a nice tandem of athletic combo forwards who are strong rebounders. Shengelia is a possible NBA draft prospect who's coming off a dominant performance in the European U-20 championships.

Shengelia combines his mobility with a solid handle (good spin moves) to effectively drive to the rim in the half-court or transition. His jumper needs to be refined. 6-8 Vik Sanikidze (Spurs hold rights) is a reliable shooter and uses his length to finish strong.

Possible NBA free-agent prospect Giorgi Shermadini (7-0) shoots a high pct., rebounds at a high rate and gets some blocks. Shermie has a solid touch out to 17 feet, can occasionally drive the ball with a fast first step and will score well off cuts or rolls. Great hands--snatches ball out of his area.

Wing Manuchar Markoishvili is another athlete at Georgia's disposal. Georgia will count on Manuchar to drill jumpers spotting up or coming off screens. Manu just needs to keep his TOs and fouls in check.

PG George Tsintsadze is a very creative passer out of pick-n-roll action, but throws as many bad passes as great ones. Also, he can't make jumpers. Explosive guard Marquez Haynes can attack the lane off the bounce and rises up high to get off his solid jumper.

Former NBA lotto bust Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Vladimer Boisa give Georgia two stretch-4 options

Have great shot of securing the 3rd place in this group and advancing to the second round.

UKRAINE:
Key Absences: Sergey Gladyr

Mike Fratello (plus asst. coaches Brian Hill and Ed Pinckney) will try to get Ukraine past the first round for the first time.

Major question marks on the perimeter especially after they lost Atlanta Hawks draftee Sergey Gladyr to injury during training camp. A big blow to their perimeter scoring and playmaking ability. Ukraine already struggles with PG play and Gladyr's ball-handling will be missed.

Natural shooting guard Steve Burtt, Jr. (Iona alum) will be forced to direct the offense most of the time. Burtt uses hesitation dribbles to great effect and can hit pull-ups or leaners over defenders.

A quality frontcourt rotation of the likes of Sergey Lishchuk, Ky Fesenko and Ole Pecherov. Great size and strong on the glass.

Serhiy Lishchuk has proven himself to be a quality big at the highest level of Euro ball. The 7-footer can knock down mid-range jumpers (a pick-n-pop threat for Ukraine) and can add some post scoring. Lishchuk's mobility allows him to be a good all-around defender and a very dangerous put-back artist.

Vyacheslav Kravtsov uses his nice combo of size (7-0, 250) and solid athleticism to attack the offensive glass and cause problems defensively. Just don't expect much from him on offense besides dunks and put-backs.

Utah Jazz big Kyrylo Fesenko will pitch in with some blocks, rebounds, high post passes and sheer Fes-ness. Also expect fouls, TOs and sloppy finishing from Fes.

Former Washington Wiz Oleksiy Pecherov can do work inside and out. The Czar will set Ole up in the post where he likes to go with a turnaround. Gives Ukraine a popping option on pick-n-rolls.

Young PG Denys Lukashov will split ball-handling duties with Burtt and rebounds well for his size. Good shooter and nice passer but can get careless.

SF Maksym Pustozvonov gives Fratello an aggressive player on both ends. Sort of has a slingshot release which leads to variation on his jumper.

Wing Oleksandr Kolchenko is a decent shooter (kind of streaky) but is another guard with turnover issues. Ukraine has major issues with losing the ball (17 TOs in qualifiers).

Run some nice stuff. Looks to be Princeton-inspired in spots. Sometimes see all five guys set up foul line & above. Also, the obligatory Horns set (double-high post) that every Euro team uses.

The Czar has his work cut out for him with no Gladyr. He's going to have to lean on Burtt and his experienced bigs to get by and possibly push Georgia for 3rd place.

BELGIUM:
Key Absences: Axel Hervelle

Drama-filled week for the Belgium. First, they decide to cut DJ Mbenga (either for health or ego reasons). Then their best player, Axel Hervelle, goes down with a bum knee. So, Belgium decides to ask Mbenga back after seeing their normally solid frontcourt rotation in tatters. Will see how Mbenga responds.

Mbenga is ok, but Hervelle was their top option and his loss severely limits their fortunes.

DJ Mbenga will provide some blocks, boards and dunks but can't face-up like Hervelle. While Euroleague vet Tomas Van Der Spiegel's length makes him a factor on the offensive glass and as a shot-changer.

6-9 Christophe Beghin is Belgium's only effective low-post option. Beghin has a solid post game where he loves to spin (or drop step) baseline on either block.

Belgium had rebounding problems last summer--have to do a better job protecting their defensive glass. Not having Hervelle should not help their glass work for this year.

Very dangerous outside-shooting team. Belgium plays a controlled style that minimizes mistakes. A minor concern is the lack of size on the perimeter.

PG Sam Van Rossum (6-2) will be the primary ball-handler and he runs the offense at a controlled pace. Good pull-up shooter (especially to his left) and can finish with either hand.

SF Marcus Faison is their main scoring threat on the perimeter. The former Siena Saint is a quality shooter with his feet set or off a few dribbles. Faison gives a Belgium a nice athletic boost on the perimeter, particularly on the defensive end.

6-1 Goel Moors will start next to Van Rossum but is not much of a shooter. Combo guard Dimitri Lauwers (6-2) is the best shooter on the team and can make jumpers coming off screens or off the dribble. Guards Guy Muya and Jonathan Tabu add a jolt of speed off the bench. Tabu is another capable shooter.

Belgium just missed out at qualifying for the '09 Euro and they were one of the top teams in the qualification tourney last summer.

Hard to judge Belgium's prospects for EuroBasket since so used to seeing this team with Hervelle. They can go to Beghin somewhat, but the perimeter will have to do the heavy lifting if they want to succeed.

BULGARIA:
Missing Players: Todor Stoykov

The weakest team at the last EuroBasket and won't be much better this year. Went 0-3 in their last EuroBasket appearance. The chances of winning a game this time around are better since Belgium and Ukraine are nothing special.

PG Earl Rowland is the main option and primary ball-handler. Can cause problems with his penetration and can finish in a variety of ways. An erratic deep shooter.

Former Western Kentucky wing Filip Videnov provides accurate shooting next to Rowland in the backcourt. Starting SG Chavdar Kostov is another sweet shooter on the perimeter. Main job is to spot-up and run off screens.

Swingman Zlatin Georgiev is a long athlete who can bury jumpers. Georgiev's agility allows him to disrupt defensively, but sometimes gets over-aggressive, which leads to foul trouble.

Bulgaria's frontcourt ranks are fairly shallow, and rely on the play of the Ivanov twins. Spanish League forward Kaloyan Ivanov is a mobile big who's comfortable playing away from the basket area and can put the ball on the deck. His brother, Dejan Ivanov, can do similar things. And both are menaces on the boards (especially on off. glass).

6-10 wide-body Nikolay Varbanov compiles rebounds at a high rate and gives Bulgaria some semblance of post scoring on occasion.

This team can definitely bang down jumpers and is dangerous on the offensive glass.

Bulgaria should be more competitive than they were in '09. They could easily finish in 4th place ahead of Belgium and Ukraine, but don't think they're ready to beat Georgia for the 3rd spot.

• EuroBasket 2011 Preview: Overview | Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D
• 2011 FIBA Americas Preview

2011 FIBA Americas Preview

2011-08-30T05:07:00.000-07:00

• EuroBasket 2011 Preview: Overview | Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D
• 2011 FIBA Americas Preview

Mar Del Plata, Argentina will host the FIBA Americas Championships from Aug. 30-Sept. 11. Wish this tourney wasn't scheduled for the same time as EuroBasket, seems like a rather weird choice to have them overlap. In the U.S., every game can be viewed for free via ESPN3.com.

The top two finishers qualify for the Olympics, while spots 3-5 will punch tickets for the pre-Olympic qualifying tournament next summer (12 teams will compete for the last 3 spots).

10 teams will divided into two opening-round groups of five:

Each team plays every other team in its group once. The top four teams from both groups advance to the second round. These eight teams form one group and they play four games vs. the teams from the opposite opening-round group. The second round uses an unrelenting schedule of four games in four days. Then, the top four teams move on the knockout phase.

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Argentina is the clear favorite to win gold at home in a last hurrah for its "Golden Generation".

Brazil, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico are the other top medal contenders.

After an awful Worlds performance (partly due to a rash of injuries), Canada should fare better this year with Joel Anthony and a healthy Andy Rautins leading the way.

Canada will be competing with Uruguay, Venezuela and Panama for the last pre-Olympic qualifying spot. Cuba and Paraguay are in Argentina to see the sights.

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TIER I (The Medal Contenders):

1) ARGENTINA:
Key Players: Manu Ginobili, Luis Scola, Carlos Delfino, Andres Nocioni, Fab Oberto, Pablo Prigioni, Pepe Sanchez
Key Absences: Roman Gonzalez; Leo Gutierrez

The old gang is back together for one last go-round. Already have them unofficially penciled in for London 2012.

The core of this team has been playing together for many years--they are an extremely potent club because of their tremendous chemistry and raw talent.

Not sure there is a better passing team as a whole than Argentina. Have multiple options on each play, and seemingly counterplays for their counterplays. They often run flex sets to perfection. When their offense is *on*, there's not a prettier team to watch to FIBA ball.

Manu Ginobili is back after sitting out the last two years and having his 2008 Olympics hampered by a bum ankle. Will be interesting to see how new coach Julio Lamas utilizes Manu.

Have to imagine Manu will pick his spots in the tourney, more willing to fill in the gaps when needed than dominate all game. Think Manu is smart enough to realize it's the Luis Scola show now.

Luis Scola is always an uber-efficient monster in FIBA play as he led the Worlds in scoring (27 ppg) and was the best player not named Kevin Durant in Turkey last summer.

Scola will draw extra defenders, draw fouls and shoot a high pct. Loves working the pick/roll, where he will peel off to hit jumpers from the foul line area or work his way to the baseline for jumpers. He's a force near the basket scoring off righty hooks, up/under moves, drop-steps, spins and put-backs. Expect him to be MVP.

PG Pablo Prigioni rarely looks for his shot, as precision-passing is his calling card--the best pure passer in the tourney. Master of the bounce pass. Leads the receiver like a great quarterback.

The Prigioni-Scola pick/roll combo is the deadliest in the tourney. Pablo always plays under control and makes sound decisions with the ball.

Carlos Delfino is coming off a superb Worlds tourney in which he averaged 20 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3 apg & 2 spg. 'Los will be a secondary ball-handler. Expect quality passing, defense, rebounding and finishing from @cabezadelfino.

Andres Nocioni is back this summer after an ankle injury nixed his Worlds participation. Expect Noce to bring his usual spazzy brand of ball, strong rebounding and shooting. Might need Noce to play some PF minutes.

Fab Oberto and Nocioni are great at getting lost on the offensive end. They are masters at finding open spaces while Prigioni, Scola or Delfino have the ball in their hands. Also, Oberto is an underrated passer and a decent post-up option in FIBA play. Oberto, Scola, & Nocioni are very crafty at using the flex screens to get quick seals.

They even coaxed Pepe Sanchez out of national-team retirement to add more veteran firepower. Pepe is another savvy playmaker and most of the other Americas teams wish they had him starting at PG. SG Paolo Quinteros is the designated sharpshooter off the bench--can spot-up or run off baseline screens.

Reserve forwards Hernan Jasen and Painted Area fave Federico Kammerichs. provide Argentina with activity and rebounding at the SF. Jasen did a terrific job on both sides of the court filling in for Nocioni in the starting lineup last summer. We hope Feddie goes with 'stache that made him a legend in '07 this summer.

Little disappointed Argentina didn't include Painted Area fave Roman Gonzalez. Actually not sure why they left him off the roster considering they could use his size off the bench.

The only minor question mark has to do with the lack of frontcourt depth. Not much size or talent behind Oberto and Scola--quite a dropoff. But then again, they've never been particularly deep or big.

Would be a stunning development if they did not get one of the two automatic Olympic bids at home. More stunning than if Spain fails to get to the Euro finals.

2) BRAZIL:
Key Players: Tiago Splitter; Marcelo Huertas; Marcelo Machado
Key Absences: Nene; A. Varejao; L. Barbosa

The defending Americas champs will have a hard time repeating without Leandro Barbosa, Andy Varejao and Nene. Brazil has shown in the past they can be competitive without the services of Nene or Varejao. But the big question is: can they be effective without Barbosa?

Barbosa has consistently been their top scorer over the last few years and Brazil could have some issues making up the points in Barbosa's absence. Barbosa was an offensive force at the 2009 FIBA Americas, finishing behind only Scola in scoring average, with 21 ppg.

Brazil has looked impressive in the prep phase, executing at a high level. But that shouldn't surprise since they have the best coach in the tourney, Ruben Magnano, manning the sidelines.

Ruben was the mastermind behind Argentina's rise to prominence on the international scene and he's one of the best coaches in the tourney. Magnano has brought over some of the continuity sets he perfected with the Argentine team.

Played pretty good ball last summer in Magnano's first year. Played Team USA tougher than anyone and pushed Argentina to the limit in a classic. Plus he had to deal with injuries to all his NBA bigs.

This summer, Tiago Splitter becomes the primary option. He's a little banged up but should be ready to go. Tiago's deft footwork gets him quality looks around the bucket, though Tiago doesn't always finish off his moves smoothly because his touch can be dodgy. He can finish with both hands and likes to toss up low-angle hooks. Expect a few sweet up-under/step-thru moves as well.

His flat shot hurts him when he tries to step away from the paint and at the FT line. Tiago can drive by his man in a straight-line way from the perimeter.

Underrated passer--can make passes on the move and delivers the ball quickly when he sees an open teammate. Great all-around defender--his lateral movement on the defensive end is as good as any big in the NBA.

Marcelo Huertas is a speedy 6-3 PG who can penetrate and finish with variety of floaters. Many U.S. fans should remember Huertas as he shredded Team USA with dribble penetration last summer (some might remember him missing a key free throw). Has taken his game to another level over the last few years and is one of the best PGs outside the NBA. We're big fans and believe he could be a quality reserve point in the NBA.

Usually not much of an outside threat, but Huertas has improved his deep shooting over the last few years. Huertas likes to go away from ball screens. Can get out of control sometimes, which leads to some forced passes (leaves his feet to pass often) and forced shots.

36-year-old SF Marcelo Machado is probably the most lethal shooter in this tourney--unlimited range. Brazil will run him off screens and he needs just a sliver of space to get his shot up. Often hits jumpers in rapid succession. Not mentioned enough, but Machado is a terrific passer--nice entry passes. Not on the floor for his defense.

Former N.O. Hornet Marcus Vinicius has raw talent but tends to be inconsistent. Vinicius is a capable pull-up shooter as well, particularly going to his left. Thought Vinicius gave Brazil good minutes last summer, particularly using his length well on the defensive end.

Former Spur/Hornet Alex Garcia is an another experienced vet at Magnano's disposal. Garcia is a powerfully built dude who plays aggressive on-ball defense and can attack the rim. Gets out well in transition. Inconsistent shooter because of awkward release.

Combo forward Guilherme Giovannoni is their designated stretch-4 option. Giovannoni is a smart vet who gets some boards and defends well for guy lacking agility.

Magnano has decided to add two 19-year-old potential NBA draftees from Unicaja Malaga--Augusto Lima and Rafael Freire-Luz--to the mix. 6-10 Lima has all the physical tools you want in a NBA prospect: wide shoulders, long arms, good hops and fluid running motion. His game needs some polish, doesn't really have a post game. Lima will basically be scoring off cuts and rolls for Brazil. Strong rebounder but needs to work on his FT shooting. His minutes could be limited.

PG Freire-Luz is fast with the ball (can get around defender without screen). Has nice mechanics on jumper but for some reason the results vary wildly.

Brazil will try to help Splitter with Rafael Hettscheimeir and Caio Torres, two wide-bodies with soft touches. Both guys can hit out to 18 feet. Hettscheimeir will get some touches in the post where he can hit turnarounds and hooks.

Have all the makings to be tough defensively. Brazil has the ability to wreak havoc with defensive pressure and force an uptempo game. This team is dangerous in transition thanks to great speed across the board.

The only minor concern I have without Barbosa: when they need a crucial bucket, can they get someone to create a good scoring opportunity. I think they will be fine if they just run the sets that Magnano chooses for them.

Don't see any way they take the gold medal out of Argentina's hands. Their goal should just be getting to the finals and securing the automatic Olympic bid.

3) DOMINICAN REPUBLIC:
Key Players: Al Horford; Francisco Garcia; Chaz Villanueva; JM Martinez
Key Absences: Sammy Meija

Finished in fifth place at the 2009 FIBA Americas tourney after a tough four-point loss to Canada, which cost them a spot at the World Championships. If Francisco Garcia had been healthy, they likely were headed to the Worlds.

All of the Dominican Republic's four losses came against the top four finishers of FIBA Americas and all the games were winnable. They lost to Argentina in OT. In their losses to Puerto Rico and Brazil, the games were close with five minutes to go., but their late-game execution was haphazard. The offense couldn't get organized properly and there were too many careless turnovers.

So the Dominican federation called upon John Calipari to make sure they pull through in tight games this year. Calipari will be aided by Del Harris, Orlando Antigua and Rod Strickland.

Biggest question mark for the Dominicans going into the last Americas was the point-guard position. And this still remains a question mark this summer. Calipari hopes former Louisville PG Edgar Sosa is the answer to this team's point-guard issues. I'm not so sure.

Sosa can get into the lane to finish well and has the ability to hit jumpers at a solid clip. But Sosa has never been the savviest of decision makers. Ill-advised shots and forcing passes into clogged areas. That's exactly what this team is trying to avoid.

No surprise that I thought Al Horford was this squad's best all-around player at the '09 Americas. Horford was the anchor of their defense: changing shots, bodying up, shuffling his feet on the perimeter and always being in the right spot as a helper. Al hit mid-range jumpers, made some hooks and displayed his terrific passing skills. Expect the same things this tourney.

Some fans might be unfamiliar with PF/C Jack Michael Martinez but he's nearly as important to this team as the NBA guys. Martinez can score, pass and rebound. He's a beast on the offensive glass.

Martinez likes to methodically back down his man (a la Mark Jackson) where he can score with some nifty moves. Maybe most impressive, Martinez is a very gifted passer, especially out of the post.

Charlie Villanueva's first Americas tourney was a somewhat uneven affair. Chuck scored some points but often couldn't get into a good rhythm because he was saddled with foul trouble. Was the second-best scorer at Centrobasket last year. Villanueva's shooting should complement Horford & JM Martinez's more interior-inclined skills well. Chuckie will work out of isos a bunch.

This squad should own the boards and is particularly dangerous on the offensive glass. Also have the makings of a tough defensive squad.

Francisco Garcia was blazing through the '09 Americas before he busted his finger. Garcia was drilling shots out to 25 feet and was flying around as a help defender deluxe (got a bunch of blocks). Coach Cal will need the same from Franny this year and might even need him to do some ball-handling.

Combo guard Luis Flores did a good job penetrating in '09, finding scores for himself and his teammates. But there were too many incidents of taking sketchy shots & making suspect decisions with the ball.

Former Pitt Panther Ronald Ramon (6-1) is a heady guard for Calipari to turn to off the bench. Ramon will handle the ball some and is a reliable deep shooter. 6-7 Kelvin Pena is a lanky wing who is primarily a spot-up threat.

Orlando Sanchez and Eulis Baez give Calipari two athletes at SF who rebound extremely well. Calipari unearthed Sanchez out of Monroe Comm. College (NY), where he was awesome on the off. glass and is a monster shot-blocker. Don't expect much from him offensively. Baez can handle the ball well enough and dish the ball, but doesn't have a reliable jumper.

Like with his Kentucky teams, Calipari will have the Dominicans running the dribble-drive offense. Smart move since Horford and Martinez's passing skills will be accentuated. It looks like Calipari wants to get in transition as well. Another smart move considering this team's mobility.

Even though the Dominicans finished fifth in '09, they played fairly well. Led the tourney in ppg and shot 38% from long range.

We know there is plenty of raw talent here. Can the talent get organized and mesh properly is the sticking question? They need steady point guard play and crisp execution if they want to pull out the tough wins.

4) PUERTO RICO:
Key Players: JJ Barea, Carlos Arroyo, Renaldo Balkman, Daniel Santiago
Key Absences: PJ Ramos; Angel Vassallo; Nathan Peavy; Carmelo Lee

Puerto Rico usually has the luxury of being one of the deepest teams in the Americas each year. But this could be differnt after that depth was heavily compromised when four keys guys pulled out with injuries. No PJ Ramos, Angel Vassallo, Carmelo Lee and Nathan Peavy. Basically the starting frontline needs to be replaced.

Puerto Rico is coming off a very solid performance at the '09 FIBA Americas tourney, finishing in 2nd place behind Brazil. The good news is that the backcourt rotation should be fine with Carlos Arroyo and JJ Barea around. Likely to see these two guys playing together quite a bit.

Expect Barea and Arroyo to dominate the ball even more this year. Expect an even heavier diet of pick-n-rolls this year with no Ramos in the post. Both guys can dart around causing havoc. Arroyo is the better shooter while Barea is the better slasher.

Both Arroyo and Barea will share ball-handling duties and will get plenty of ball screens. Both guys can be dangerous scorers in FIBA play.

However, Puerto Rico's offense can sometimes devolve into a sloppy mess. Arroyo and Barea can treat sections of the game as their personal one-on-one competitions. Both are guilty of getting tunnel-vision and will abandon sets to go into chucker mode.

Will have to integrate some players with little senior-team experience into the rotation. They have the ability to pile up steals. Have been looking to get out in transition in the prep phase and they have the athletes to be successful. And the 3pt. shot is a big part of the P.R. offensive arsenal.

Losing Ramos is a considerable blow as he played fairly well last summer. Ramos was their main interior option and was effective scoring on the block.

Aging center Dan Santiago will be forced back into the starting role in Ramos' absence. Dan can do some scoring on the block, and rolls well off high screens, but he's not quite effective as he use to be in FIBA play.

7-foot PF Ricky Sanchez (Nugget draftee) loves to spot-up behind the arc. Sanchez has shown some glimpses of improved driving ability.

Renaldo Balkman is back this year after struggling to get consistent minutes last summer. The coaching change should help, as he did not get along with former coach Manilo Cintron. Expect the same things Balkman brings in the NBA--energy, rebounds and defense.

The SF position is in disarray with Vassallo and Lee out, the top two SFs. Puerto Rico will turn to a trio of former NCAA standouts--Bimbo Carmona, John Holland and Alex Galindo-- to try to fill the void.

Recent Boston Univ. grad John Holland is an explosive athlete who can take the ball hard to the rim in the half-court or transition (though he can get out of control). Holland's jumper is inconsistent but he can get some rebounds and steals.

6-7 Alex Galindo (Florida Int'l alum) has the ability to cause problems with his long arms on defense, just like his predecessor, Carlos Lee.

Former Dayton Flyer Bimbo Carmona (6-5) is a powerful athlete who can get to the rim but his jumper is not reliable. Rebounds well for his size.

They're gonna miss Ramos' interior scoring, as it was a nice complement to Arroyo and Barea's scoring. They're going to need Santiago to turn back the clock every now and again. Also wonder if their outside shooting will be good as it normally is.

Even with a somewhat depleted roster, this squad is on the same level as Brazil and Dominican Republic.

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TIER II (Fighting for the last pre-Olympic bid):

CANADA:
Key Players: Carl English; Joel Anthony; Cory Joseph
Key Absences: Tristan Thompson; Sam Dalembert

Coming off an utterly disastrous Worlds performance that had many Maple Leafers calling for coach Leo Rautins' ouster. Rautins has not been great but he had to deal with injuries to key players that sucked dry whatever little offensive acumen this team had.

Same story as always for Team Canada in the post-Nash era: no one to create easy scoring opportunities on offense. Get close-to-no dribble penetration. The offense looks downright brutal sometimes.

What continues to hold this team back is a lack of playmakers, which makes for a constant struggle on the offensive end. No player who really creates anything on the perimeter. Not to mention, not much of a post scoring presence, which makes for a team with no one who needs to be doubled.

Coach Rautins smartly added some more motion to their half-court sets. Leo has figured out a better system (creating shots with player/ball movement instead off the dribble) for his talent.

Like to circle their wings around screens. They might run the least amount of pick/roll of any FIBA team, which is smart since their guards don't do much with the ball screens. Lots of screens off the ball.

Canada hopes the addition of recent San Antonio Spurs draftee Cory Joseph can help upgrade their PG spot. Right now, Joseph is more of a shooter than a deep penetrator.

6-6 Carl English returns after missing the Worlds with injury and is probably their best playmaker. The athletic Newfie will handle the ball some what and is probably the best dribble penetrator, but nothing special. English is a good shooter and he can create quick dribble pull-ups for himself going either way.

NY Knick Andy Rautins is one of top Maple Leafers on the roster and their main sharpshooter. Canada will run Rautins off screens, usually getting him open up high. Rautins can handle some of ball-handling duties in a pinch.

Canada actually has a collection of solid shooters--English, Rautins, Jermaine Anderson, Kelly Olynyk, Aaron Doornekamp & Joseph--they just have no players who draw extra defenders.

Canada usually stays competitive by being a quality defensive unit anchored by a stout interior defense. And Canada should be good inside this year.

Miami Heat's Joel Anthony is an active body who will board & change shots on the backline. Believe it or not, Anthony might see some touches in the post and he can hit a baby lefty hook sometimes. He also likes to turn & face, where he shows nice touch on short jumpers. He does, I swear.

Former Pitt Panther Levon Kendall will start alongside Anthony and provides stout positional defense on the block & timely help. Not to mention, he sets good screens, runs the floor hard, rebounds and can hit the occasional elbow jumper.

Another key returnee is veteran PF Jesse Young. Definitely missed his toughness and smarts last summer. Young moves well off the ball, can sometimes bury a turnaround jumper and will sacrifice his body.

6-1 Jermaine Anderson (ex-Fordham) is an effective jump shooter but can't really penetrate off the bounce, and has little in the way of point-guard instincts.

6-7 combo forward Aaron Doornekamp is another reliable shooter on the roster and plays some physical defense. Gonzaga's 6-11 Kelly Olynyk likely won't get much run, but does have 3pt. range, which is nice.

Denham Brown and Jevohn Shepherd (ex-Mich. Wolverine) give Canada some serviceable depth on the wings.
Brown is an adequate shooter and dependable defender. Shepherd is a nice athletic guard who handles the ball some. He can create space for himself (step-back dribbles), just too bad his jumper is broken.

It's doubtful Canada will earn one of the two Olympic berths, though they are capable of finishing in the fifth-place slot which would secure a berth into the qualifying tourney next summer. If they don't get the berth, can't imagine Leo Rautins sticks around.

6) URUGUAY:
Key Players: Esteban Batista; Maurice Aguiar

As they have in the past, show that the sum is greater than the parts. Good teamwork on both ends of the floor. Tough defensive unit, particularly aggressive perimeter defense with quick hands.

Have patterned their offense after their successful neighbor, Argentina. Like to run continuity-type sets with some double-high post formation thrown in. Like Argentina, have good cohesion, and often play above their talent level.

But once again, this team lacks depth and this usually catches up with them in second week. Usually play only 6 or 7 players.

Led by ex-Atlanta Hawk Esteban Batista, who's an absolute beast in the interior in FIBA, but he's trying to get healthy. Will often have to navigate consistent double-teams, and draws a ton of fouls. His touch is a little dodgy, and can miss chippies, but has a knack for corralling his misses. If he gets in foul trouble, there is nowhere to turn for interior-scoring help.

Batista badly needs help on the frontline--Uruguay is undersized and usually gets pounded on the glass. They hope 6-9 Reque Newsome (naturalized American) can aid Batista with rebounding and add some active defense Forward Sebastian Izaguire likes to face-up and uses his long, bouncy body to crash the off. glass.

6-6 SF Mauricio Aquiar is an athletic scorer who likes to attack (gets to the FT line often), but lacks a steady jumper. Aguiar will also handle the ball a bit. Aguiar will be the second scoring option and was one of the top players at the 2010 South American championships (3rd in ppg, 17.8).

Big PG Martin Osimani has a nice all-around floor game, and directs the offense with patience. 6-4 Gustavo Barrera gives Uruguay another big PG with nice passing skills. Barrera is another dogged defender on the perimeter.

Leandro Garcia-Morales (ex-Texas A&M) is another combo guard that Uruguay can count on to provide solid shooting & some ball-handling. Garcia-Morales is also a dogged defender on the perimeter, who's a steals merchant.

Have a very good defensive backcourt with Garcia-Morales, Osimani, & Gustavo Barrera. Their ball pressure tends to be good. Very aggressive and have quick hands.

Not a particularly good outside-shooting team, encouraging more doubles/triples on Batista. Acually not sure why more teams don't zone up Uruguay. Collapse around Batista, make them beat you with jumpers.

Will see if Uruguay's lack of depth (especially on the frontline) catches up with them by the end of the week. Have a chance at the last Pre-Olympic bid but they have very little margin for error as not much separates them from Venezuela and Panama.

7) VENEZUELA:
Key Players: Hector Romero; Greivis Vasquez; Greg Echienque

Disappointed at the last Americas in 2009 by not even advancing out of the first round. Eric Musselman takes over the coaching reins and has a lot of work to do to get Venezuela in range of a pre-Olympic qualifying berth.

Musselman must feel relieved that he got Hector Romero back from injury after it looked like he wouldn't be available.

The aggressive undersized PF Hector Romero was their go-to-guy in '07. Romero (6-7) looks to attack the basket 12-feet & in, and his powerful package draws fouls. Romero was the fourth-best scorer in '09 Americas.

The offense is directed by Memphis' Greivis Vasquez. Vasquez is a shifty floor general who makes up for his subpar speed with taut ball-handling & smarts. Vasquez can finish in traffic, but has an erratic jumper. Vasquez helps Venezuela in nearly every aspect of the game.

Venezuela is held back by its inability to spread the floor. Zones can really put a crimp in their strengths: Romero's interior work, and Vasquez & Torres' dribble penetration. Made only 26% of their 3PA in 2009. This is perennially a problem. Also led the '09 Americas in turnovers with 18 TOpg.

Musselman hopes former Marquette guard David Cubillan helps solve Venezuela's deep-shooting woes. Cubillan can handle the ball a little but his main duty will be to try to space the floor.

21-year-old wide-body Greg Echenique (6-10) uses his generous frame to carve out deep post position and score around the rim well. Actually moves his 270 lbs. better than you would expect which allows him to be effective on defense either blocking shots or guarding the post.

Musselman coaxed 34-year-old Oscar Torres to give Venezuela one more summer of national duty. The former Houston Rockets forward shuns the outside shot to attack off the dribble. 6-6 Axiers Sucre provides another tough, undersized forward who's a plus-rebounder for his size.

Heissler Gullient will see some PG minutes behind Vasquez. Guillent handles like he's got the ball on the string and will make some sweet dishes. Combo guard Jose Vargas provides Venezuela with another ball-handler, but is a subpar shooter.

Expect this team to be solid defensively. Musselman has a defense-first philosophy and this team has capable individual defenders. They're gonna have to defend because scoring the ball at an efficient rate could be a chore. They're going to have to piece some decent shooting together. A Pre-Olympic qualifying bid is a reasonable goal.

8) PANAMA:
Key Players: JR Pinnock; Gary Forbes; Jaime Lloreda
Key Absences: Jair Peralta; Joel Munoz

This team simply can't shoot anywhere on the floor. Their offensive play has been putrid over the last two summers--didn't shoot over 40% overall in '09 or '10. This is nothing new, been this way for years. A hapless outside-shooting outfit in the field--awful past 15 feet. Should see a lot of packed-in defensive looks.

They're perennially bad at the FT line as well. Were dead last in FT shooting (53%) at Centrobasket. Second worst at '09 Americas (68%).

Tend to be sloppy with the ball. Poor overall shooting combined with turnovers is a recipe for failure. Not a particularly big team and not much of a bench, either. Keep their head just above water thanks to an active defense and tough rebounding.

Not sure things will get better this year since they will be playing without a true PG. However, there is decent talent here. Some guys who can create offense for themselves.

Led by former George Washington Univ. standout JR Pinnock. Pinnock is an explosive SG who loves to slash, but has a broken jumpshot. Feel free to give him a big cushion. Pinnock played very well in 2009, finishing 3rd in scoring (20 ppg). Rebounds well for his size.

Current Denver Nugget Gary Forbes returns to national-team play after missing the last Americas tourney. Forbes really doesn't solve Panama's shooting woes but he does add rebounding, defense, some tight ball-handling and just overall hustle.

6-4 Jamahr Warren is another guard who can create good scoring opportunities for himself. Warren is a long-armed athlete who is very adept at hitting pull-ups or runners off isolation plays. Long arms help get steals and he rebounds well for his height.

Former LSU standout Jaime Lloreda gives them a solid inside presence who can score on the block & clean the boards. Lloreda can hit short jumpers and is an underrated passer.

37-year-old bruiser Ruben Garces is back to give Lloreda some help up front. Garces is a physical presence who is a bull on the boards, particularly on offensive glass.

There's usually too much one-on-one play and the offense too easily devolves into a sloppy mess. The problem might stem from not having a proper point guard. It doesn't help that Panama is missing its usual main PGs, Jair Peralta amd Joel Munoz.

Panama has not been impressive since their sharp play in 2005 under Nolan Richardson. I think they have an outside chance at a top-five finish just because none of the teams in front of them are all that strong.

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TIER III (Not getting out of the first round):

9) CUBA:
Qualified for the Americas tourney with a 4th-place finish at the 2010 Centrobasket. First Americas tourney since 1999, where they finished tenth.

Were not very good in any aspect of the game last summer. Couldn't hit behind the arc or on the FT line. Probably will get hurt on the boards. Good athleticism across the board helps generate loads of steals.

Big men Orestes Torres and Yoan Haiti are the primary options on the frontline. Both guys score and added much-needed rebounding. 6-4 guard Juan Pineiro is the key playmaker on the perimeter, dishing and stealing.

Chances of getting to the second round are miniscule unless they catch Venezuela on a really bad night.

10) PARAGUAY:
Sorry to say don't know much about Paraguay basketball. Finished fifth at the South American championships and only received a bid when Team USA turned down their automatic Americas bid. First Americas tourney bid since 1989 where they finished tenth.

Led by PG Javier Martinez who scores, passes and rebounds very well for his size. 6-6 forward Bruno Zanotti is the other top player who is a rangy athlete. Zanotti has a smooth release and can hit off screens or spotting up. Forwards Jose Fabio and Guillermo Araujo are capable scorers and good rebounders.

It looks like they rebound well but cough up the ball too much. Not surprising they use a short rotation. If they win a game, it will be stunning. Their games could get out of hand.

• EuroBasket 2011 Preview: Overview | Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D
• 2011 FIBA Americas Preview