Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Amar'e, LeBron, KD and the Wacky Storylines of the 2010-11 NBA MVP Race

Coverage of the NBA has gotten much smarter as media options have expanded exponentially and as we've gained better knowledge about things like how to analyze statistics, but apparently the MVP is still secondarily about the Most Valuable Player, and primarily about the Most Favored Storyline.

The Ridiculous Storyline: Amar'e

The 2010-11 NBA season has passed the halfway point, and as we've reached that marker, lots of folks have been offering their choices for midseason awards. Over and over and over and over again, I've been seeing a selection which is making me lose my mind: Amar'e Stoudemire for MVP.

Now, Amar'e is indeed having yet another outstanding season (one which actually looks quite similar to his Phoenix production). But give me a break. He's not the MVP, or even close, really.

Here's how the scout who Marc Stein quoted in his Weekend Dime described it:
    "[T]he most valuable player as we get to the midpoint is Amare Stoudemire. He's rejuvenated the whole city of New York. They've stumbled a little bit here lately, but he's putting up huge numbers and he's got all the cab drivers talking about the Knicks and he's proven he doesn't need Steve Nash to be a great player."
Awesome. Getting the New York cabbies talking is a new MVP criterion to me, but apparently doing that and taking a team from 29 wins to 44 wins and a 6 seed makes you the MVP.

One of the Sports Illustrated writers who chose Amar'e said that "Stoudemire has turned the Knicks from afterthoughts to contenders and rejuvenated a historical power."

First of all, though the Knicks are based in the largest market and have been around since the NBA's inception, I really question how much of a "historical power" they are. There have been many more dismal years than memorable ones in the team's 65-year history.

And they are absolutely not contenders in 2010-11! They weren't even when they were 22-15 before their easy early schedule finally toughened up, and they aren't now that they're 23-21. The Knicks smelled like a 6 seed then, and smell like one now.

That's what most bizarre about the current Amar'e MVP fetish: normally the MVP discussion focuses obsessively on W-L record, yet this year many are rushing to bestow the honor on a guy leading his team to the 14th-best record in the league, because the storyline of leading the Knicks from a decade of complete irrelevancy to being halfway decent is the warmest and fuzziest.

********************************

The Forbidden Storyline: LeBron and D-Wade

Admittedly, it's a bit of strange year for the MVP so far, and there's certainly no clear-cut selection, to date. It starts with the fact that the league's top two teams - San Antonio and Boston - are both doing it by committee, and the Lakers have also done so to a certain extent as well, with Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and even Lamar Odom taking turns at preeminence for the champs.

But still, going to a base level of "Who are the guys doing it via box-score stats and W-L record?", there are several players who compare favorably to Stoudemire:
                     PER    W-L
    L James 26.1 31-13
    D Wade 25.5 31-13
    C Paul 25.8 30-16
    D Howard 25.1 29-16
    K Bryant 24.7 32-13
    R Westbrook 24.3 28-16
    D Nowitzki 24.0 28-15
    P Gasol 23.7 32-13
    K Durant 23.2 28-16
    D Rose 23.0 31-14
    D Williams 23.0 27-17
    A Stoudemire 23.4 23-21
I will say that one impressive thing in Stoudemire's favor is that he's not blessed with another star. Ray Felton is the next Knick player after Amar'e in the PER rankings at 65th (17.4). But that's why the Knicks are ultimately a mediocre team. They have upgraded not only with Amar'e but also by adding several good players around him, but New York is still needs more talent and seasoning compared to contending teams.

For me, the MVP race is still wide open, and for a midseason choice, I have trouble separating LeBron James and Dwyane Wade - they are my 1 and 1a to date. They have both been extraordinary in carrying (along with Chris Bosh) an otherwise crappy roster to one of the league's best records. I've been especially impressed by how disruptive they've been defensively, making Miami a top-five defense even without an imposing interior presence.

I'm quite surprised that I haven't really seen Wade on anyone's top five list as an MVP contender - I think he's been truly outstanding since shaking off an early-season slump after having to adjust to an overhauled roster without the benefit of training camp, due to injury.

Statistically, both of these guys should separate from the pack as the season goes on, as they've been fantastic since the rough 9-8 start:
               JAMES               |        WADE
1st 17g 23.4 - 5.6 - 7.9 - 44% FG | 21.2 - 5.9 - 4.1 - 44% FG
Last 27g 27.6 - 8.2 - 6.7 - 50% FG | 27.6 - 6.8 - 4.3 - 52% FG

If I had to choose one, I'd probably lean toward James because his passing (7.2 apg overall) has been superior to Wade's (4.2 apg), even though I think Dwyane has been a slightly better defender.

And therein, of course, lies the problem. No one wants to reward LeBron James for The Decision, and no one wants to reward Dwyane Wade either, after the offseason stacking of the superstar decks. The Heat are the league's most hateable team.

I enjoyed today's new entrant in the NBA MVP storyline sweepstakes, this argument for Derrick Rose, which couldn't be more in contrast to the mainstream narratives surrounding LeBron:
    He's my MVP so far, not just for the way he's carried the limping Chicago Bulls the way Penn's carried Teller.... He's my MVP for moments like this:

    Three young fans are walking alone after leaving the United Center. They're the last to go, so they're all alone. A white SUV pulls up next to them. This part of Chicago could use a shave and a clean shirt, so somebody rolling up on you isn't usually happy news. The young men try not to look. The window comes down and who is behind it but Derrick Rose himself, The Heir to Air.

    Their mouths fall unhinged.

    "Hey, man, just want to thank you guys for taking time to come out," Rose says. "Really appreciate it."

    Their voice boxes go mute.

    "And thanks for wearin' my jersey, too!" Rose says to one of them.

    Their eyes fail to blink.

    Finally, one of them, Martin Campoverde, 23, gulps, "What's it feel like playing in your hometown?"

    Rose pauses and smiles. "Greatest thing ever happened to me," he says. "This is the greatest city in the world."

    Window goes up. SUV drives off. Year is made.
I mean, if you want to choose the MVP based on doing good things for the kids, that's cool. I choose to focus more on, you know, who the most valuable basketball player is.

It doesn't fit the storyline anyone wants, you may not like it, and they certainly have more to prove in the playoffs, but it's the reality: LeBron James has been the best player in the 2010-11 regular season so far.

********************************

The Boring Storylines: Dwight and CP3

I certainly think this is still a wide-open MVP race. But my other top contenders are two boring old standbys, Dwight Howard and Chris Paul, which stands in opposition to the conventional wisdom, described today by John Hollinger thusly: "Howard, incidentally, is also a very strong MVP candidate whom everyone seems hell-bent on ignoring while they fixate on shiny new objects like Amare Stoudemire and Derrick Rose."

I rank Howard far, far ahead of Stoudemire, as his presence as the game's most dominant defensive player has been the most important factor in keeping the Magic strong no matter who his teammates are. And, of course, Howard is displaying an expanded offensive game, to boot. I thought Dwight was the MVP through November, and he's still a very strong contender to ultimately get my mythical vote.

Meanwhile, Paul is still my choice as the game's top point guard, and he is one of my top MVP contenders for his supreme efficiency in leading a fairly thin Hornets roster to one of the best records in the West. He was brilliant again tonight in outdueling Russell Westbrook down the stretch. In my opinion, Paul is severely hampered by the fact that New Orleans has just one game on ESPN or TNT this season - I think people have forgotten how good he is.

I know that New Orleans residents and cabbies may not be buzzing the same way their Big Apple counterparts are. Maybe CP3 needs a second line or the Mardi Gras Indians in support of his MVP candidacy to get things moving.

Honestly, I don't think there is too much separating the top four point guards right now - Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams (and geez, Rondo, Parker and Nash aren't too far behind them) - so I think reasonable people can disagree on this one, though I'd rate the guys other than Paul just behind as the best second-tier MVP candidates right now.

From there, it's really up for grabs. I would have had Dirk Nowitzki in the top five before he missed so much time with a knee injury (and hasn't looked great upon return, either). I suppose one could make an argument for Stoudemire in the top five based on the relatively little help he's getting from teammates, compared to other contenders, even though I'd probably rank him closer to 10 than 5.

********************************

The Underrated Storyline: KD?

One of the most underrated storylines of the season for me has been the dissipation of what was the summer's warmest and fuzziest MVP storyline of all: the expectation of Kevin Durant's continued ascent to league dominance after his tweeted contract extension was the favored moral contrast to the vulgarities of The Decision.

After finishing second in the 2009-10 MVP voting, Durant was expected by many to rise to MVP status this season - really, no one's storyline was more perfectly teed up to do so. Yet one of the more stunning developments of the season is that it's Russell Westbrook who's been the Thunder's most valuable player, and Durant is barely a top-ten MVP candidate.

While I cited PER above, I certainly don't believe it's a be-all, end-all stat. Yet, in this case, I think it tells the story quite well.

Last season, Durant ranked 3rd in the league in PER at 26.2, while Westbrook ranked 57th at 17.9.

This season, Durant ranks 13th at 23.2, while Westbrook ranks 7th at 24.3. In both seasons, for both players, the numbers jibe with what my eyes are seeing.

For Durant, I've noticed something odd in a few games, such as tonight's 91-89 loss to New Orleans: when his outside shot isn't falling, it strangely seems like he's not contributing much to his team. He doesn't really often get to the rim or break down the defense off the dribble or create opportunities for others, and he's not really a plus defender overall.

Even though he's still the league's leading scorer, Durant's numbers are down all over the place compared to last year. Even though he's playing the same minutes, he's taking fewer shots at the rim (3.7 vs. 5.3), fewer free throws (8.8 vs. 10.2), making fewer threes (32.8% vs. 36.5%) and grabbing fewer rebounds (6.3 vs. 7.6), while not really seeing any significant upticks anywhere.

Let me make this perfectly clear: I think Kevin Durant is an awesome player who is nearly certain to end up in the Hall of Fame, and I think the Oklahoma City Thunder are poised to dominate the Western Conference this decade. Further, Durant has certainly been a major factor in OKC's 28-16 start, and has delivered key clutch shots repeatedly. And of course, there are plenty of nights when his outside shot *is* on, and he's devastating force to deal with. KD is clearly an All-Star, clearly one of the top dozen players in basketball, he's just not challenging to become the *best* player in basketball, as many thought he would.

I just can't quite explain his slight regression this season, and I think he's still relatively far from capturing the torch as the league's best player (most importantly, I think he needs to become a much better passer). And frankly, I think it should be a little bit bigger story that Kevin Durant is *not* an MVP candidate halfway through the 2010-11 season, after his on-court and off-court actions of the summer seemed to place him in the catbird's seat.

25 Comments:

At 2:23 AM, Anonymous milaz said...

If Amare is an MVP candidate, why not throw Kevin Love in the mix? No, no, definitely not.

I guess it's still too early - which makes this a more interesting MVP race... if such a thing exists.

Ginoblii anyone?

 
At 7:39 AM, Blogger Bret LaGree said...

I hadn't seen that Rick Reilly piece because I don't read Rick Reilly and my knowledge of Penn and Teller is taken almost entirely from Calvin Trillin's New Yorker profile of them from sometime in the '80s but it's my understanding that Teller was considered by magicians to be the once-in-a-generation talent and that Penn's satirical huckster shtick was in service to his partner's creative illusionist work.

 
At 12:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don’t see any differences between D-Rose and M-Ellis (Ellis is probably a more efficient scorer). The main difference is that Rose is lucky to have teammates play great defense to cover his shortages and Thib (the Bulls HC) really knows how to coach defense. If they switched teams, the Bulls would have similar winning% with Ellis and the Warriors would lose similar numbers of games with Rose. The way Rose hogs the ball, even Marberry (?spelling) has to move over. I saw stats somewhere – Rose takes the most shots among PGs in the L (and even more shots than majority of SGs except 2), but his efficiency is at the bottom among PGs; I don’t consider he is a PG; he is just a SG in a PG body. How could people say that Rose carries Bulls with a shaking roster? Noah (before injury) is a top 3 C in the east; Boozer is an all-star caliber PF, Deng is playing at an all-star SF level this year, and Taj and their other main bench players play well. In many games, Rose shot very inefficiently (eg, score 28 on 31 shots, 35 on 33 shots…); luckly there were always some of his teammates stepped up to help the team win (last night it’s Kurt Thomas). The Bulls MVP (not league) is their head coach and their defense. Thib is the best Bulls coach since P.J. Too bad he comes a little too late. If they still had Kirk/Thabo as their backcourt, they may have a chance to win championship. Rose is very much Iversen- or Marberry-like. I am not a fan of Marberry or any small ballhogs. But I wonder why the media bashed Marberry so much when he hogged the ball, while they are hyping Rose so much even though he is the biggest ballhog at the PG position (and almost the biggest even compared to SGs) currently.

LBJ (if he stays healthy) should be the MVP; just watch how the Cavs are doing without him. I have never seen a player that has this much impact on a team, perhaps except a younger Duncan. I was neither a fan of LBJ nor the Heat prior to this season, but become a fan of LBJ and the Heat because LBJ, Wade and Bosh all choose winning over being the main guy (on a team) and making a little more money. KG and Ginobili are next MVP candidates for me; just because their respective teams play an unselfish style, it doesn’t mean they don’t deserve the MVP. I wonder why D-Howard is not mentioned much as a MVP candidate and he has done so much (on both ends of the court) for his team (much more than Rose would ever be capable of doing). I like what Wade, Amare, CP3, Westbrook, Durant, Horford, etc. have been doing for their teams, and Duncan is always my favor.

 
At 2:06 PM, Anonymous Dan said...

To Anonymous: rose is inefficient due to not getting a lot of FTs, yes, but let's not be ridiculous:

Ellis PER: 19.58, 38th in league
Rose PER: 23.01, 14th in league

And Rose is still a mediocre defender (though better than last year), but those inches he has on Monta sure help.

you don't see any difference between him and Monta? Come on man. Watch some games.

 
At 7:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

the amar'e and d. rose love are certainly due to their markets. lbj and d. wade are still killing it, but are hated. dwight is a funny guy and he dominates, i wonder why he's always left out. cp3 is doing well, although i like deron better (but the jazz are losing quite a number lately). d. rose is doing good, and i agree that so far, its russel over kd in okc. if amare is considered, blake should also be considered because he's got people buzzing more than amar'e. how about the hawks mvp entrant? jj or horford? damn, can't even begin talking about the 3 best teams so far (boston, sa, lal).

 
At 8:27 PM, Blogger Emile Avanessian said...

As unpopular a decision as it would be, I think the MVP at this point has got to be LeBron. It understandably took him (and the Heat) a while to find their bearings, but now that he's in his comfort zone, LeBron's reclaimed (did he ever really lose it?) the title of most devastating force in the NBA. As good as Wade has been, LeBron is the catalyst for this team.

Also, while I have historically not been the biggest Dwight Howard fan, I'm always surprised by just how little MVP buzz he generates. He's good for 20+ and at least 12 rpg every year, and is the league's biggest game changer on D. For all the talk of defense winning championships, it amazes me just how little it apparently factors into MVP voting.

Finally, I have also noticed the change in KD's game. Not only has he become almost exclusively a perimeter player, his intensity does seem to be directly tied to the state of his jumper. It's got to be linked to the emergence of Westbrook- I don't think he's threatened by him, but Westbrook clearly has the most dominant personality on that team, and KD seems almost deferential to him.

Great post!

 
At 12:57 AM, Blogger Matt Johnson said...

A great post. Got here from SI, and I'm so glad to see someone else rant on this. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

You do several good take downs, but the Amare one is the key. It's the most bizarre MVP campaign I've ever seen. My impassioned rant here:

http://asubstituteforwar.wordpress.com/2011/01/21/the-empire-state-wears-no-clothes-amare-is-not-the-mvp/

Re: LeBron & Wade. They're on my radar, certainly more so than Amare. However, I think you've got to consider that with only one of those two guys, there is very good reason to think the team still wins 50. There only on pace for 58 wins. Adding 8 wins does not an MVP make.

Won't shock me at all if the Heat win the title, and then you'll probably see me praising to the heavens whoever is the team's primary star at that point as the most accomplished player of the season, but for right now, the Heat still aren't on pace for a really elite season.

 
At 9:51 PM, Blogger tmac said...

I read your article, and I liked it, but I don't understand why your interpretation of value is superior to any other. I think that you would award the MVP to the best player on a championship-level team. And that's a great interpretation (although obviously, within that definition, there's already oodles of wiggle room).

But I'm ok with giving it to a great player who's generating positive buzz in the league's biggest market. Or a rising young star who's also a great role model (and a great source of saccharine columns). Those are just different interpretations of value.

Lebron is probably the best basketball player, so let's give him the BBP. But if Amare really does have the cabbies talking in NYC, awesome! It means the sport I'm bonkers about is getting some love. Seems pretty valuable to me.

 
At 9:57 AM, Anonymous ian said...

tmac: why don't we just give the MVP to greg oden for having the biggest dong? surely on many people's 'interpretation of value' that makes him the most valuable player in the nba.

 
At 1:53 PM, Blogger Justin Neuman said...

To me the race for MVP only has two horses right now and they are Rose and LeBron. LeBron's case can be seen just by looking at Cleveland's record. Their roster is ultimately the same except for 'Bron and Big Z, and yet now they have the worst record in the league and the Heat are among the leaders in the East. As for Rose, his case is made on the court. He is making the Bulls contenders in the East despite their second and third-best players (Noah and Boozer) missing time with injury. Rose is also one of the hardest-working players in the league and will keep getting better so if he doesn't win the award this year, he probably will in the future. I mean, the guy IS only 22...

 
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Thib is one of the best Bulls mentor because P.J. as well poor he arrives just a little as well late. If they nonetheless experienced Kirk/Thabo as their backcourt, they might possess a opportunity to earn championship.
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