Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Effective Age Snapshot: Dallas Would Be Second-Oldest NBA Champs Ever

• Also today: Heat-Mavs Preview Thoughts: Dallas Zone, Defending/Deploying Dirk, Synergy Numbers

Hello and happy Finals opening day. We unveiled our pick of Heat in six games in yesterday's edition of 5-on-5 on ESPN.com.

Today, we wanted to follow up on a piece by Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus from last week, which evaluated teams by "effective age". Effective age is simply a measure of a team's average age, but weighted by minutes played, rather than a straight average (which artificially inflates the average number for a team like Miami, for example, if vets like Juwan Howard (37), Erick Dampier (35) and Zydrunas Ilguaskas are given the same weight as the Big 3 (all under 30)).

Pelton's piece specifically examined how the Thunder were the youngest team by effective age to make the conference finals since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976, yet history had shown that achieving such a feat at such a young age often did not prove to be a precursor of continued success.

Below, we offer the effective ages of every NBA championship team, plus a few selected teams from 2010-11. Note that our numbers differ slightly from Pelton's, as his were more precise, based on player age to the day. We based our calculations on Basketball-Reference's rounded age number, set to the player's age on February 1 of a given season. Also, minutes-played data is not available prior to the 1951-52 season, so we weighted the first five champions by points rather than minutes.

While not precise to the day, we still thought these effective age numbers were worth sharing. In particular, they illustrate how remarkable the sharp contrast of the Western Conference Finals was, and how remarkable Dallas' run to the Finals has been, as they would become one of the oldest teams to ever win a championship. Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, Oklahoma City would have been the youngest team ever to win it all, quite easily, by this measure.

See below the list for some brief notes and analysis:
    YEAR TEAM eAGE
    1998 CHI 31.7
    2011 DAL 30.9
    1997 CHI 30.7
    1969 BOS 30.5
    2007 SAS 30.4
    2011 LAL 30.2
    1999 SAS 30.1
    1996 CHI 29.9
    1990 DET 29.5
    1972 LAL 29.5
    1968 BOS 29.5
    1986 BOS 29.3
    2006 MIA 29.2
    2001 LAL 29.2
    2000 LAL 29.2
    2011 MIA 29.0
    1976 BOS 29.0
    1988 LAL 28.9
    1966 BOS 28.8
    1973 NYK 28.7
    1989 DET 28.6
    2010 LAL 28.5
    2005 SAS 28.5
    1995 HOU 28.5
    1974 BOS 28.5
    2003 SAS 28.4
    1984 BOS 28.4
    1964 BOS 28.4
    1965 BOS 28.3
    1963 BOS 28.3
    1961 BOS 28.3
    1994 HOU 28.1
    1993 CHI 28.1
    1962 BOS 28.0
    1958 STL 28.0
    1948 BAL 28.0*
    2008 BOS 27.9
    2002 LAL 27.9
    1987 LAL 27.8
    1951 ROC 27.7*
    1992 CHI 27.6
    1960 BOS 27.5
    2009 LAL 27.4
    2004 DET 27.4
    1985 LAL 27.4
    1978 WAS 27.4
    1954 MIN 27.3
    1959 BOS 27.1
    1981 BOS 27.0
    1970 NYK 27.0
    1967 PHI 27.0
    1957 BOS 27.0
    1991 CHI 26.9
    1982 LAL 26.8
    1979 SEA 26.8
    1983 PHI 26.7
    1953 MIN 26.5
    2011 CHI 26.4
    1980 LAL 26.2
    1971 MIL 26.1
    1955 SYR 26.1
    1975 GSW 25.8
    1952 MIN 25.8
    1947 PHW 25.8*
    1956 PHW 25.7
    1949 MIN 25.7*
    1950 MIN 25.1*
    1977 POR 24.5
    2011 OKC 23.7
* Effective age weighted by points rather than minutes

-- On a certain level, it's not altogether surprising that the Mavs would rate as one of the oldest championship teams ever, given that a 38-year-old, Jason Kidd, leads them in minutes (2653 total/33.2 per game).

Here's the complete list of players aged 37+ who've started for championship teams:
• 1988 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 40 yrs, 2 mos (2308 min/28.9 mpg)
• 1987 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 39-2 (2441/31.3)
• 2003 David Robinson: 37-10 (1676/26.2)
• 1985 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 37-2 (2630/33.3)
• 1998 Dennis Rodman: 37-1 (2856/35.7)

All bigs other than Kidd. Kidd will become the oldest guard to start a Finals game, the oldest player other than Kareem, period. And if the Mavs win it all, he'll become the oldest title-winning player to lead his team in minutes. All as a guard, where speed should matter more. Just amazing longevity from the Hall of Famer.

-- Oklahoma City's place on this chart emphasizes how crazy some of the over-the-top criticism of Russell Westbrook has been. The dude is 22, and still learning how to run a team and play point guard. He's going to be fine, and doing something rash like trading him would be a ludicrous idea.

We still have our doubts about Scott Brooks as a championship-caliber coach, and think he desperately needs to add some experienced X-and-O assistants to his bench, but similarly, he's done so much and advanced so far with such a young team that he's earned the right for patience to grow into the job further.

We know Pelton's numbers showed that young teams often don't make it back, but we still think Oklahoma City is in great shape for the future, barring catastrophic injury.

-- Take a look at how the Lakers have progressed on this chart: from 27.4 in 2009 to 28.5 in 2010 to a whopping 30.2 in 2011. These numbers only strengthen the belief we've been asserting in these pages: standing pat is not an option for the Lakers if they want to get back into championship contention. They are just too old. Their effective age number would stabilize next year with a larger share of minutes for Andrew Bynum, but even with that, L.A. needs to get a heckuva lot younger.

-- Miami's number seemed a bit shockingly high, given that this is intended to be the first year of a long run. It's a reminder of how important veterans have been to their supporting cast, and also, after all, that Dwyane Wade is 29 years old.

The main concerns would be the commitments through 2014-15 to Mike Miller (31), Udomis Haslem (about to turn 31) and Joel Anthony (28). The Heat are really going to need to get younger around those guys to sustain this run past 2012-13 or so.

-- The younger end of the list is heavily populated by teams from the NBA's early days, and it makes sense. Careers were shorter, as it was harder to make a living in the game, and training regimens were much less rigorous or advanced.

That's what makes it fairly remarkable that the '60s were just a whisker away from ranking as the second-oldest decade for average effective age of championship winners.
    '90s: 29.1
    '00s: 28.6
    '60s: 28.5
    '80s: 27.7
    '70s: 27.3
    '50s: 26.6
-- It's really kind of painful to see that 1977 Portland Trail Blazers down at the bottom of the list, far below other teams from the post-'50s era. Back in November, we wrote about how no NBA team has left as many potential championships on the table as the Blazers, and this really brings it home starkly.

Portland was the youngest team to ever win a title in 1977, and were cruising toward a repeat when they were 50-10. Then Bill Walton went down and everything changed. The '78 Bullets (44-38) and '79 Sonics (52-30) were two of the weaker teams to ever win it all. That absolutely should have been a three-peat for those Blazers.

-- Random note: during six straight championship years from 1961-66, the Celtics had an effective age between 28.0 and 28.8 - right in the sweet spot - every single year. It speaks to how well Red Auerbach managed the evolution of his roster, both from the bench and the front office.

• Also today: Heat-Mavs Preview Thoughts: Dallas Zone, Defending/Deploying Dirk, Synergy Numbers

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At 7:01 AM, Anonymous Squatch said...

Fantastic article.

It always really bugged me that the broadcasters would just weight each player on the roster equally for purposes of determining average age. That is obviously extremely misleading because MOST of the ages counted were irrelevant benchwarmers.

I like this effective age metric. I don't think it captures everything. Namely, some teams have young players in waiting that aren't getting minutes, but will. It seems like young guys on the roster that aren't playing should perhaps be looked at differently than older players, but thats probably overfitting. Furthermore, contract status would seem to be relevant as well. When a team has guys like Haslem and Miller on contract for so many years, they are effectively older than if those deals were expiring. Nitpicking. It's a nice metric.

Crazy how young the Thunder are. They also have arguably more of that "talent waiting in the wings" than other squads. They have Cole Aldrich eventually eating into Mohammed and Collison's minutes (two older guys). Latavious Williams has a decent shot of making it into the big leagues too.

It is tempting to dream about 4 years from now when that roster will really hit the sweet spot. Four years is just too long to project out though IMO. I think signs are pointing to a 60 win season with a finals appearance and loss to the heat next year. I think 2013 will be their year though.

 
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