Monday, May 30, 2011

Heat-Mavs Preview Thoughts: Dallas Zone, Deploying/Defending Dirk, Synergy Numbers

• Also today: Effective Age Snapshot: Dallas Would Be Second-Oldest NBA Champs Ever

Not a ton of stock can be placed in the two regular-season matchups betweem Dallas and Miami (both won by Dallas - 106-95 in Dallas on Nov. 27, and 98-96 in Miami on Dec. 20). The Mavs had the services of Caron Butler in the regular season meetings, and have added sharpshooting ace Peja Stojakovic since these teams last met. The Heat had Arroyo starting at PG, now they have Bibby (not sure if that's better). Udonis Haslem was not available for either game and Mike Miller missed the Nov. 27th game.

Still, we went back to the film to glean what we could about two X-and-O factors: how did Dallas' zone affect Miami, and what was the strategy around Dirk Nowitzki on both sides of the ball. Here's what we found:

THE DALLAS ZONE
Will be interesting to see what the Mavs have up their sleeve when they're on the defensive end. Dallas might have the most effective zone alignments in the league and Miami is a team you want tossing up as many perimeter jumpers as possible. Wall off the painted area, make Bron & Wade jumpshooters and keep them off the FT line. Miami struggled when faced with Dallas' zone in both regular season meetings.

In the two reg. season games, Miami managed a total of only 44 pts on 56 possessions vs. Dallas' zone. Those 56 possessions resulted in seven TOs, seven drawn shooting fouls, two drawn fouls and 14-for-40 (35%) shooting.

In general, Dallas likes to implement its zone late 1st Q and will go with a heavy diet of zone in the 2nd Q. And they did this vs. Miami--in both games, played zone for most of the 2nd Q. Basically no zone in the 3rd Q and mixed in some zone in 4th Q in each game. Like to go zone on out-of-bounds plays.

Expect to see plenty of zone looks from Dallas in the Finals. They sometimes go with a more traditional 2x3 set with some matchup principles. Then sometimes they will go with a matchup zone in which they will move out of their respective areas to follow an offensive player. Tough to decipher Dallas' defense sometimes because they will pass off offensive players even when in a man-2-man set. Chandler and Haywood are effective backstops in the zone and when Anthony is on the floor, their ability to help becomes easier.

Overall, the Dallas defense (zone or man) was effective vs. the Heat--Miami shot roughly 41% overall in both games. LeBron had two uneven games vs. the Mavs, in which he shot the ball poorly and coughed up the ball too many times.

On Nov. 27th, Bron recorded 23 pts, 8 rbs, 4 asts & 15 FTAs. But he shot 5-for-19 and had 5 TOs. On Dec. 20th, Bron had 19 pts on 6-of-17, 10 rbs, 7 asts, 7 FTAs & 5 TOs. Wade and Bosh fared better in the regular season--both shot near 50% in both games.

DEPLOYING DIRK
Overall, Dirk only shot a combined 40% vs. the Heat. Dirk had 22 pts on 9-for-23 shooting and only got to the line three times on Nov. 27th. He had 26 pts on 8-for-21 on Dec. 20 and got to the FT line 10 times. Compare that to his overall reg. season numbers vs. the Thunder: 47 pts on 13-of-21 shooting, including 19 trips to the FT line.

Wanted to focus on how Miami chose to defend Dirk but have little info to work with from the reg. season games. Found it curious that the Mavs rarely chose to post/iso Dirk vs. Miami. In a total of 73 minutes for Dirk, counted only 13 total post/iso calls in the two reg. season matchups. By contrast, counted 21 post-up plays over Dirk's two reg. season games vs. OKC in 50 minutes of total floor time.

Dirk set up shop mostly on the perimeter. It seemed Dallas was using him more as a floor-spreader and screener than as a playmaker in their two games vs. the Heat. Actually chose to run Dirk off screens and allowed him to cut or cut off screens into the paint a little more than usual.

Bosh was the primary defender on Dirk and Miami let him handle the German without help. Joel Anthony got some cracks at Dirk and also went solo on him.

Dirk really did not punish the Heat on posts/isos like he did vs. the Thunder in the reg. season. On isos, Dirk shot 4-for-12 and drew only one foul. On post-ups plays, Dirk managed to produce 22 pts for himself on 5-of-9 shooting, six drawn shooting fouls (12 FTs), 3 TOs and three kick-outs.

Have to imagine we'll see many more post-ups for Dirk in the Finals. Dirk has been punishing all comers with his post game or extended posts/iso game in the playoffs. Expect Bosh to be the primary defender with Anthony, Haslem and even LeBron getting some reps on Dirk. Going to assume they will try to single-team Dirk as much as possible.

Haslem did a terrific job on Dirk in '06--bodied up Dirk very well, especially on the perimeter. Don't think it's fair to expect Udonis to repeat his '06 Finals defensive performance since he's still working his way back into form. On top of that, Dirk's game is less high-post oriented than it was in '06 and Haslem might have trouble dealing with him down low.


SYNERGY NUMBERS
The data from detailed play-by-play breakdowns from Synergy Sports Technology also suggests that Dirk's post-up game could be pivotal.

This Finals offers a matchup of no. 1 offense (Dallas) and no. 2 defense (Miami) in terms of points per possession on Synergy. Here are some key play types for this matchup, comparing numbers in the playoffs and regular season:

                        PLAYOFFS
MAVS O | HEAT D
PCT% PPP RK PPP RK
Spot Up 23.1% 1.19 1 | 0.97 9
Pick/Roll 20.6% 0.92 3 | 0.69 2
Post Ups 10.6% 1.01 2 | 0.99 16

REGULAR SEASON
MAVS O | HEAT D
PCT% PPP RK PPP RK
Spot Up 22.8% 1.04 8 | 0.92 3
Pick/Roll 17.9% 0.90 10 | 0.84 6
Post Ups 9.8% 1.01 1 | 0.81 2

Dallas has been one of the most efficient post-up teams in the league all season, no surprise with Dirk running the show. Miami's defense was one of the best at stopping the post game in the regular season, but they rank as the worst team in the playoffs in points per possession (PPP) in defending that play type. Small sample size likely explains some of that, as they certainyl didn't see much post-up action vs. Chicago.

The exceptional success Dallas has had in the Spot Up and Pick/Roll areas in the playoffs illustrates two other areas where Nowitzki's mere presence has helped his team. Miami needs to be able to single-cover Nowitzki to help limit the spot-up shooting game, and they need to find a way to shut down the pick-and-roll game in which Dirk often serves as a dangerous roll man. J.J. Barea, in particular, has obviously been hard to contain in the pick-and-roll in these playoffs.

Beyond Nowitzki, Barea and Jason Terry have had the biggest jumps in production in the postseason. Terry's PER has jumped from 15.9 in the regular season to 19.7 in the playoffs, while Barea's has increased from 14.8 to 19.1. Whether Terry can keep knocking down shots and Barea can continue his devastating play in the pick-and-roll could be decisive factors in the series.

On the other side of the ball, a key area to watch is Miami's pick-and-roll game, which has been particularly strong in the playoffs, ranking first in the league with 0.97 PPP (accounting for 22.3 of its offense). That's up from 0.93 PPP in the regular season, which ranked fifth.

On D, Dallas has allowed 0.86 PPP on pick-and-rolls in the playoffs (ranked 7th), an improvement over the regular season, where the Mavs ranked just 23rd, allowing 0.91 PPP per PnR.

OTHER NUMBERS
In terms of matchups related to the "Four Factors" statistics which correlate most directly with winning, the big one to watch is effective field-goal percentage between Dallas' O and Miami's D.

Dallas ranked 3rd (52.5%) on offense and Miami ranked 3rd (47.5%) on defense in this category over the course of the season, and both teams have continued to excel in this department in the playoffs.

The Mavs have easily led the league at 52.2%, even though league eFG% has dropped sharply from 49.8 to 47.6 in the playoffs. The Heat's 46.2% eFG defense in the playoffs ranks just 5th, but it's just a shade below the top mark of 46.0% allowed (OKC).

The other key Four Factor to watch is Miami's free-throw rate, which has been strong in both the regular season and the playoffs, against Dallas, which was among the league leaders in fewest FTA allowed in the regular season.

Finally, last and least, a random note to finish this off: two of the three qualified players with the lowest PERs in the playoffs are both starting in this series, Mike Bibby and DeShawn Stevenson, both with the robust production of a 2.2 PER. Only Landry Fields, with an 0.3 PER in his four-game run, has been worse on a box-score stat basis.

• Also today: Effective Age Snapshot: Dallas Would Be Second-Oldest NBA Champs Ever

42 Comments:

At 6:42 PM, Anonymous Home Inspector Training said...

This is one of the much awaited rematch since 2006. I’m so excited to watch this game. This gonna be a an interesting game of the day.

 
At 7:12 PM, Anonymous Home Inspector Marketing said...

Mavericks will be Heat’s worst nightmare. I’m on Heat and I just can’t wait to see the outcome on their clash on basketball warzone.

 
At 10:37 PM, Anonymous Website Guru said...

Yeah!! NBA is really an exciting game and so as the fans are excited too. I wanna watch every of this game.

 
At 6:55 AM, Anonymous Seduction Secrets Revealed said...

The two teams did a great job and surely people are waiting and can’t wait to see the NBA Finals. And I’m even one of them. Lets good luck to them and may they play the good and unforgettable game. They should really give a great game to all their fans who give their 100 percent support. Thanks for sharing this.

 
At 6:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This site was... how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I have found something which helped me.
Thanks a lot!
Also see my site :: teenpornsexpussy.com

 
At 7:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This blog was... how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I've found something which helped me. Appreciate it!
Feel free to visit my web-site - teens fucking

 
At 2:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm impressed, I must say. Seldom do I encounter a blog that's equally educative and entertaining, and without a doubt,
you have hit the nail on the head. The problem is something which too few men and women are speaking intelligently about.

I'm very happy I found this during my hunt for something regarding this.
Feel free to surf my page : Hot Babe Gets Hammered Between 2 Horny Shemales

 
At 11:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very energetic blog, I enjoyed that a lot. Will there be a part 2?
My page : Jaz Brutalizing BJ 2

 
At 7:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just couldn't go away your web site prior to suggesting that I extremely enjoyed the standard info a person provide for your guests? Is going to be back steadily in order to check up on new posts
Feel free to surf my web site ... freeporn

 
At 4:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello there! I simply want to give you a
huge thumbs up for your excellent information you've got here on this post. I am coming back to your web site for more soon.
Also visit my blog post - Teen Sex Videos

 
At 1:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like the helpful info you provide in your articles.
I'll bookmark your weblog and check again here frequently. I am quite sure I will learn many new stuff right here! Best of luck for the next!
Here is my blog ; free porn tube

 
At 2:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

fantastic publish, very informative. I'm wondering why the other experts of this sector don't realize
this. You must continue your writing. I'm sure, you have a great readers' base already!
Check out my blog - Blackberry Hacking

 
At 5:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Malaysia & Singapore & brunei finest on the internet blogshop for wholesale &
supply korean add-ons, earrings, earstuds, choker, rings, bangle,
bracelet & hair accessories. Deal 35 % wholesale markdown. Ship Worldwide
Here is my web site :: buying hcg preparations and metabolism

 
At 3:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Malaysia & Singapore & brunei greatest on the internet blogshop
for wholesale & quantity korean accessories, earrings, earstuds,
pendant, rings, bracelet, bracelet & hair add-ons. Deal 35
% wholesale price cut. Ship Worldwide
My page ; stitching wire

 
At 1:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Malaysia & Singapore & brunei finest on the internet
blogshop for wholesale & supply korean add-ons, accessories, earstuds, locket, rings,
hair, bracelet & bracelet accessories. Offer 35 % wholesale price cut. Ship Worldwide
My site : brain fitness iPhone

 
At 2:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I do believe all the concepts you have offered for your post.

They are very convincing and will certainly work. Nonetheless, the posts are very brief for beginners.

Could you please extend them a bit from next time?
Thanks for the post.
My webpage :: free ps3 games

 
At 1:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good day! I could have sworn I've been to this website before but after checking through some of the post I realized it's new to me.
Anyhow, I'm definitely glad I found it and I'll be book-marking and checking back frequently!


Feel free to surf to my webpage - escort amsterdam

 
At 7:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Awesome post.

Feel free to visit my web site ... Kosher Catering Los Angeles

 
At 10:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I all the time used to read piece of writing in news papers but
now as I am a user of internet therefore from now I am using net for posts, thanks to web.



My web-site ... pasang iklan

 
At 10:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi my family member! I want to say that this article is amazing, nice written and include approximately all
significant infos. I would like to peer extra posts like this .


Have a look at my weblog ... trekking chiang mai

 
At 5:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I truly love your site.. Excellent colors & theme.

Did you build this site yourself? Please reply back as I'm planning to create my very own blog and would like to learn where you got this from or what the theme is named. Kudos!

my web site - Spazio-kovan

 
At 11:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello, I believe your blog mіght be having internet browseг compatіbilіty pгoblems.
When I look at your blog іn Sаfari, it looks fіnе howеνer when opening in IE,
it's got some overlapping issues. I simply wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Apart from that, wonderful blog!

Also visit my homepage - Life insurance quotes

 
At 5:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I enjoy, lead to I discovered just what I was taking a look for.
You have ended my 4 day lengthy hunt! God Bless you man.
Have a nice day. Bye

Feel free to surf to my homepage http://www.teenpornsexpussy.com

 
At 9:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fantastic website. Plenty of useful information here.
I'm sending it to a few buddies ans additionally sharing in delicious. And naturally, thank you in your sweat!

my site; free amateur porno video

 
At 6:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello, I enjoy reading all of your article. I like to write a little comment to support you.


Feel free to surf to my page - wildpartygirls.org

 
At 3:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi! I know this is somewhat off-topic however I needed to ask.

Does running a well-established blog such as yours take a massive amount work?
I am brand new to running a blog but I do write in my journal everyday.
I'd like to start a blog so I can easily share my personal experience and views online. Please let me know if you have any kind of ideas or tips for brand new aspiring bloggers. Thankyou!

Have a look at my homepage ... www.cfnmfever.net

 
At 1:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is in point of fact a great and helpful piece of information.
I'm glad that you simply shared this useful info with us. Please stay us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.

my weblog ... xxxmoviegalls.com

 
At 4:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Magnificent beat ! I would like to apprentice even as you amend your
site, how can i subscribe for a weblog website? The account
aided me a acceptable deal. I were a little bit familiar of this your
broadcast provided bright transparent concept

my page :: assfucked.org

 
At 5:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very good info. Lucky me I ran across your site by accident (stumbleupon).
I've book-marked it for later!

Here is my web page ... http://www.babesflick.com/category/309/closeup-sex/25.html

 
At 7:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for finally talking about > "Heat-Mavs Preview Thoughts: Dallas Zone, Deploying/Defending Dirk, Synergy Numbers" < Liked it!

Feel free to visit my web page http://www.

drunk-college-girl.com

 
At 7:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Asking questions are truly fastidious thing if you are
not understanding something totally, but this post provides pleasant understanding even.


Look into my homepage: Search Results for: Licking Vagina Page 1

 
At 8:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is really interesting, You're a very skilled blogger. I have joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of your magnificent post. Also, I have shared your website in my social networks!

Also visit my webpage - www.onhiddencam.info

 
At 3:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Have you ever considered about adding a little bit more than just your articles?

I mean, what you say is valuable and all. Nevertheless think
about if you added some great graphics or videos to
give your posts more, "pop"! Your content is excellent but with pics
and clips, this blog could undeniably be one of the very best in its field.
Good blog!

Look into my web site :: college hardcore porn ()

 
At 4:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ninest123 16.02
louis vuitton, louis vuitton, longchamp outlet, ray ban sunglasses, michael kors outlet, michael kors outlet, michael kors, nike free, longchamp outlet, louboutin, ugg boots, burberry, prada outlet, tiffany jewelry, oakley sunglasses, michael kors outlet, michael kors outlet, uggs on sale, burberry outlet online, tory burch outlet, prada handbags, oakley sunglasses, polo ralph lauren outlet, ugg boots, ugg boots, nike outlet, louboutin outlet, michael kors outlet, louis vuitton outlet, chanel handbags, jordan shoes, ugg boots, christian louboutin outlet, longchamp, replica watches, ray ban sunglasses, cheap oakley sunglasses, tiffany and co, nike air max, oakley sunglasses, louis vuitton, replica watches, louis vuitton outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet, ray ban sunglasses, louboutin shoes, oakley sunglasses, nike air max, gucci outlet

 
At 4:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

lululemon, vans pas cher, hollister, nike roshe, michael kors, michael kors, north face, hollister pas cher, oakley pas cher, true religion jeans, new balance pas cher, north face, coach purses, vanessa bruno, nike trainers, nike free, true religion outlet, burberry, nike air max, ralph lauren pas cher, hogan, ray ban pas cher, louboutin pas cher, nike air max, air max, air jordan pas cher, replica handbags, hermes, abercrombie and fitch, michael kors, nike free run uk, longchamp, true religion jeans, nike blazer, nike huarache, coach outlet, sac guess, converse pas cher, tn pas cher, mulberry, michael kors, nike roshe run, timberland, ray ban uk, ralph lauren uk, true religion jeans, longchamp pas cher, lacoste pas cher, sac longchamp, nike air max, air force

 
At 4:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

moncler, louis vuitton, pandora jewelry, ugg pas cher, barbour jackets, bottes ugg, wedding dresses, canada goose uk, canada goose outlet, moncler, pandora jewelry, juicy couture outlet, thomas sabo, louis vuitton, pandora charms, canada goose, sac louis vuitton pas cher, swarovski crystal, moncler, canada goose, replica watches, links of london, moncler, toms shoes, louis vuitton, moncler outlet, barbour, moncler, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, hollister, swarovski, coach outlet, doudoune canada goose, pandora charms, marc jacobs, canada goose outlet, canada goose, juicy couture outlet, louis vuitton, lancel, montre pas cher, doke gabbana outlet, supra shoes, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, moncler, moncler, converse outlet, ugg boots uk, karen millen, canada goose
ninest123 16.02

 
At 2:29 PM, Blogger rehabgad1 said...



Good write-up. I definitely love this site. Keep it up

http://prokr122.blogspot.com.eg/
https://rehabgad.hatenablog.com/archive
https://hubpages.com/my/hubs/stats
http://banatadam.com/

 
At 11:27 AM, Blogger anosh said...


عملائنا الكرام اذا كنت تبحث عن افضل واقوي شركة شركة تركيب اثاث ايكيا بالرياضفى هذا المجال كما انها تتميز بالصدارة بين الكثير من الشركات المتواجدة في الرياض
شركة تركيب اثاث ايكيا بالرياض
كما اننا نتميز عن باقي الشركات بأننا لدينا افضل الطرق وافضل الادوات والمعدات فى تركيب غرف النوم الصيني

كما اننا متقدمين عملائنا الكرام بتقديم افضل خدمات فني تركيب اثاث ايكيا بالرياضمع توفير امهر الفنيين في تركيب اثاث ايكيا كما اننا نعلم جيدا تعدد حاجات عملائنا من احتياج الفنيين والمتخصصين في عمليات فك وتركيب اثاث ايكيا بالرياض واحتاجهم لتواجد المساعدين لانجاز مهامهم بدقة وعلي اكمل وجة ممكن
كما اننا نقدم العديد من الديكورات المختلفة والتصميمات الساحرة واحدث الالوان العصرية التي لن تجدوها الا من خلال تركيب اثاث ايكيا بالرياض كما اننا نوفرها بأحدث الموديلات التي تتناسب مع احتياجات جميع عملائنا
فأننا نحيط علمكم اذا كنت تريد تركيب اي اثاث في منزلك فلديك
لزيارة موقعنا
https://lwmt4.com/%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D8%AB%D8%A7%D8%AB-%D8%A7%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B6/

 
At 7:25 PM, Blogger jeje said...

pandora charms
mbt shoes
ugg boots clearance
nike factory store
coach outlet online
tn pas cher
off white shoes
cheap snapbacks
pandora charms outlet
ralph lauren outlet

 
At 5:01 PM, Blogger 流星雨 said...

coach outlet
canada goose outlet
red bottom shoes
pandora charms
canada goose jacket
off white clothing
christian louboutin outlet
skechers shoes
supreme
hogan shoes

 
At 8:44 AM, Blogger rehabgad1 said...



Good write-up. I definitely love this site. Keep it up
http://rehabgad.angelfire.com/
http://prokr114.bravesites.com/
https://prokr123.cabanova.com/
http://zahraa-golf.com/
https://www.prokr.net/ksa/jeddah-water-leaks-detection-isolate-companies/

 
At 10:48 AM, Blogger RIANA RIANA said...


Egypt clinics
افضل المراكز لخدمات العنايه والتجميل للرجال والسيدات وزراعه الشعر

http://rianariana.bravesites.com/
https://slashdot.org/~riana.m/firehose
https://rianariana1.livejournal.com/
https://www.facebook.com/egyptclinics.egypt/

 

Post a Comment

<< Home