Tuesday, October 30, 2007

One More O/U Pick Under The Gun

OK, I've been looking for a reason to pull the trigger on Memphis Over 34 (22 wins last year) and John Hollinger gave me the last piece of evidence I was looking for, with this research about how preseason results affect regular season records:
    One other team looks promising in [Roland Beech's study on 82games.com] -- Memphis. He found that teams who won fewer than 30 games the year before but had a winning preseason record improved by an average of 19 games the following season; adding in last year's results drops the improvement to 17 games, but it's still eye-opening.

    The Grizzlies had a winning preseason after winning 23 games last season. Were they to improve by the average of 17 games, they'd go 40-42 and make a strong run at a playoff spot in a Western Conference that isn't nearly as deep as it used to be.
I like the offseason they had, and I think Iavaroni's going to be a hell of a coach. I only hope that they'll forgive me for the intemperate post about their franchise that I made earlier this summer.
But check the timestamp, I'm in under the gun with Memphis Over 34, to add to my other O/U picks.

And oh by the way, I'm curious to see if Orlando, Atlanta and Indiana all exceed expectations, as Beech's analysis of preseason results projects. That would be some Season O/U gold for future seasons....