2008-09 NBA Win Over/Under Predictions

Alright, it's time for the annual October favorite here at The Painted Area, as we offer our predictions for picking NBA regular-season win over/unders.

After turning in our best-ever season O/U performance (6-1) in 2006-07, the first year we went public with our recommended O/U picks, we limped home to a 3-4 mark last season - our first sub-.500 year ever (though we did salvage a .500 record overall with a win in a supplementary LeBron ppg prop).

And since we crowed about kicking Bill Simmons' butt in '06-07 (he went 4-6), fair play dictates that we note he trumped us last year with a 4-2 record.

As if anyone cares about this competition but us, here's the overall record comparison:

Season  TPA  BSG
06-07   6-1  4-6
07-08   3-4  4-2
Total   9-5  8-8

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OK, first, let's go straight up with the data. What we've done below is:

a) sorted each conference in order of the over/under line for season wins,
b) provided predicted '08-09 wins from ESPN's John Hollinger and Yahoo!'s Kelly Dwyer, and
c) provided '07-08 wins.

As always, these are for entertainment purposes only. Remember, this is not a competition, it is only an exhibition - please, no wagering.

EAST
(O/U Line - JH/KD - '07-08)
BOS   54.5 - 60/56 - 66
DET   50.5 - 54/55 - 59 
CLE   48.5 - 47/47 - 45
PHI   48.5 - 50/51 - 40
ORL   47.5 - 46/53 - 52
TOR   47.5 - 47/48 - 41
CHI   40.5 - 39/41 - 33
WAS   37.5 - 36/34 - 43
MIA   37.5 - 39/44 - 15
ATL   36.5 - 31/36 - 37
CHA   36.5 - 40/33 - 32
IND   34.5 - 41/37 - 36
NYK   31.5 - 28/23 - 23
MIL   30.5 - 32/30 - 26
NJN   27.5 - 27/22 - 34

WEST
(O/U Line - JH/KD - '07-08)
LAL   54.5 - 57/57 - 57
HOU   52.5 - 56/57 - 55
UTH   51.5 - 58/57 - 54
NOH   51.5 - 50/54 - 56 
SAS   48.5 - 47/51 - 56
PHX   46.5 - 45/48 - 55
DAL   46.5 - 45/46 - 51 
POR   44.5 - 42/44 - 41
DEN   42.5 - 41/37 - 50 
GSW   37.5 - 40/30 - 48
LAC   33.5 - 30/32 - 23
MIN   32.5 - 31/29 - 22 
SAC   27.5 - 23/29 - 38
OKC   26.5 - 20/20 - 20
MEM   23.5 - 26/26 - 22

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THE PAINTED AREA'S 2008-09 RECOMMENDED O/U PREDICTIONS

OK, without further ado, here are our favorites for 2008-09:
- LAL - Over 54.5
- POR - Over 44.5
- CLE - Over 48.5
- NYK - Over 31.5
- WAS - Under 37.5
- ATL - Under 36.5
- DET - Over 50.5

Here's our rationale on the team picks:
LAL OVER 54.5 (57 last season)
We said it after the Finals and we'll say it again now: we think that, if the Lakers can keep their key players healthy, they have a chance to win 70 games.

We think that the uninspiring manner in which they succumbed to Boston in the Finals is still preeminent in people's minds, and obscuring the fact this team has overwhelming talent that goes 10 deep with all kinds of versatility and size.

We're still not entirely convinced that this team is mentally fit to withstand the rigors of the playoffs, but we think they're going to absolutely roll people in the regular season (esp. with the expected decline of a few Western powers), and easily beat a high 54.5 number.

POR OVER 44.5 (41)
A month ago, I would have thought that this number was insanely low. Now, the sober analysis from Hollinger and KD has given me pause - played over their heads last year, no injuries (other than Oden, of course).

Still, by adding Oden, Rudy, Jerryd Bayless, and Nick Batum (despite losses of James Jones and Jarrett Jack), I just can't believe this team won't improve by at least four games this season. Health - given the histories of Oden, Roy and Aldridge - does make me nervous, but still, I'm going to go for it.

CLE OVER 48.5 (45)
We're going against the wishes of both Professor Hollinger and Captain KD (who both have the Cavs at 47 W's), and that's never comfortable.

We just think that lots of things went awry for this team last season, whether it was injuries or Varejao's holdout or a disruptive midseason trade.

We still like the direction of this franchise, esp. after they took Boston to the wire in May (playing LBJ 43+ mpg helps, no doubt). It's a little bit of a gut call but we think LBJ can carry them over the 50 threshold, and we think there's an outside chance that Wally's expiring deal could bring back a very nice piece come Feb.

NYK OVER 31.5 (23)
Again we're going against the grain of Messrs. Hollinger/Dwyer, and again we think you simply can't underestimate the chaos of last season. Tumultuous, nearly-all-time-bad chaos in this instance.

Put last year's roster (essentially this year's roster, give or take) in an average NBA setting and we think they were about a 30-win club. Now simply put them in a professional culture and a positive atmosphere, with an above-average coach... well, we think these simple changes will do wonders, and we think this club can push up close to 35 W's.

ATL UNDER 36.5 (37)
We see several teams in the Eastern Conference improving in '08-09 - Atlanta was going to have to upgrade just to keep up. Instead, they lost Josh Childress and added no one of value. Their bench is ridiculously bad. We see them taking a step back.

WAS UNDER 37.5 (43)
The losses via injury of Arenas and Haywood leave Les Boulez painfully thin, and they also have key players like Jamison and Daniels on the wrong side of 30.

We have all kinds of respect for Tough Juice, and worry that he might have us chewing on straws with worry come April, but we still feel pretty comfortable with this under, given the overall improvement of the East.

DET OVER 50.5 (59)
We're a little nervous b/c we thought Flip Saunders was a very good regular-season coach, and now they have a rookie on bench in Michael Curry. Still, we're going with the Pistons over 50.5, based in no small part on recent history.

Namely, they've been over 50 each of the last five years, averaging 56.8 W's over that time. And they won an even 50 in the two years prior to that.

And it's all the same cast of cats - even though they're getting up there, Joey D has done a great job of supplementing the vets with youthful energy from Stuckey, Johnson and Maxiell. This team should be able to withstand some injury, which they seem due for at some point this century.

Other thoughts:
In general, we were tempted by about 10 other numbers, and had a hard time narrowing down to our 7 favorites. All in all, the numbers that were set were really good this year.

We came into this ready to go under on teams like PHX, DEN, and GST (and SAS to a certain extent), as we think those teams will take big slides, and over on teams like MIN and LAC (see Roland's Teams to Watch below) but the O/U numbers that were set anticipated big declines and improvements for all of those clubs, and made things too challenging - their numbers are just about where we see those teams finishing.

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HOLLINGER'S TEAMS TO WATCH
Here are the teams which are at least five games over or under the line in John Hollinger's projections:

BOS - Over 54.5 (60)
ATL - Under 36.5 (31)
IND - Over 34.5 (41)
UTH - Over 51.5 (58)
OKC - Under 26.5 (20)

KD'S TEAMS TO WATCH
Here are the teams which are at least five games over or under the line in Kelly Dwyer's estimations:

UTH - Over 51.5 (57)
GSW - Under 37.5 (30)
ORL - Over 47.5 (53)
MIA - Over 37.5 (44)
NYK - Under 31.5 (23)
NJN - Under 27.5 (22)
DEN - Under 42.5 (37)
OKC - Under 26.5 (20)
(We're giving Kelly a mulligan on his Kings prediction...)

Going under on the Thunder and over on the Jazz seem to be the two on which John and Kelly are most in agreement.

ROLAND'S TEAMS TO WATCH
Roland Beech of 82games.com did some research which showed that preseason records may have predictive value for regular-season records, in the following instances:

a) When a team which won less than 30 games the previous season has a winning record in the preseason,
b) When a team wins 75% or more of its preseason games, and
c) When a team loses 75% or more of its preseason games.

All of this is based on small sample sizes, so these are all pretty rough generalizations which need to be taken with a grain of salt, but the win correlation for teams who have satisfied a) above since '02-03 is especially strong - those teams improved by an average of 17.5 games a season.

The one team which satisfies this criteria this year is Minnesota (6-2 preseason). I was enticed by the T-Wolves, but the O/U line of 32.5 (won 22 last year) already seemed to reflect that this squad is poised for improvement. Tempting, but I see Minny right in that low-to-mid 30 range - wish the line was lower.

BILL SIMMONS' PICKS
Update (10/29): Bill Simmons made his picks on his podcast - he discussed all 30 teams with his buddy, the immortal "House", and here's ultimately what they jointly recommended:

BOS - Over 55.5
CLE - Over 47.5
CHA - Under 35.5
LAL - Over 55.5
SAC - Over 27.5
NOH - Over 51.5
PHI - Under 48.5

We'll check back after the season to see how everyone did. Alright, good night and good luck.