Monday, January 26, 2009

Importance of Good Board Scores (Part II)

Recent piece by Basketball Prospectus' Anthony Macri (via TrueHoop) reminded us of a post we did about two years ago on the correlation of rebounding and title chances. Mr. Macri cautioned that Orlando's '08-'09 championship aspirations could ultimately be derailed by mediocre rebounding. And he was on to something.

In our April '07 post we examined the rebounding numbers of the NBA Finals participants between 1987 to 2006.

It was no surprise that strong rebounding is a key component to winning titles. But we found it interesting that out of the 40 teams to make the Finals in that 20-year span between '87 to '06, only four teams had a negative rebound margin for the regular season. We also found that the +1 rpg margin threshold seems to be a strong indicator if a team can win the title. If your team rebounds below the +1 rpg margin for the regular season, you're unlikely to win the title.

Since we did the initial post, Boston won a title with a +3.12 rpg margin & the Spurs had a +1.6 rpg margin for '06-07 reg. season. Last season's Lakers had a +1.35 margin, and the '07 Cavs were a tough boarding club at +3.66.

- In the last 25 seasons (1983-84 to 2007-08), only four teams have made the NBA Finals with a negative rebounding margin for the regular season:
    '86-87 Celtics (-0.1 rpg)
    '93-'94 Rockets (-0.4 rpg)
    '94-'95 Rockets (-2.8 rpg)
    '99-'00 Pacers (-1.6 rpg)
- In the last 25 years, every NBA champion besides the two Rockets' title teams has had at least a +1 rebound per game margin in the regular season.

Basically if you want your team to make the Finals, you must hope for a positive rebound margin for the regular season. And if you want to take home the Larry O'Brien trophy, at least a +1 rebound per game margin is pretty much required. Don't have to be the best rebounding team to win the title, just can't be a subpar board team. Here are the regular-season rebound margins for the Finalists of the past 25 seasons:
    1983-84: BOS +4.5 | LAL +2.3
    1984-85: LAL +3.5 | BOS +4.3
    1985-86: BOS +5.1 | HOU +2.1
    1986-87: LAL +2.3 | BOS -0.1
    1987-88: LAL +1.7 | DET +3.0
    1988-89: DET +4.6 | LAL +3.7
    1989-90: DET +3.9 | POR +6.0
    1990-91: CHI +3.3 | LAL +2.4
    1991-92: CHI +4.3 | POR +5.0
    1992-93: CHI +3.3 | PHX +2.6
    1993-94: HOU -0.4 | NYK +5.5
    1994-95: HOU -2.8 | ORL +3.0
    1995-96: CHI +6.6 | SEA +0.9
    1996-97: CHI +5.3 | UTH +2.9
    1997-98: CHI +5.2 | UTH +4.6
    1998-99: SAS +2.0 | NYK +0.4
    1999-00: LAL +3.9 | IND -1.6
    2000-01: LAL +3.4 | PHI +4.0
    2001-02: LAL +1.1 | NJN +0.4
    2002-03: SAS +1.7 | NJN +1.5
    2003-04: DET +2.2 | LAL +0.7
    2004-05: SAS +2.2 | DET +3.8
    2005-06: MIA +4.3 | DAL +3.9
    2006-07: SAS +1.6 | CLE +3.6
    2007-08: BOS +3.1 | LAL +1.3
The D'Antoni-era Suns were criticized for not being able to protect the rim (and rightfully so), but their poor rebounding might have been just as crucial to their inability to get out of the West. Here are the Suns' rebounding margins in the D'Antoni years:
    2004-05: -2.0
    2005-06: -4.1
    2006-07: -2.3
    2007-08: -2.4
So fans of Orlando, San Antonio, Denver, Detroit, & New Orleans have to feel a little uneasy because these teams all have rebound margins hovering around the 0 rpg margin mark. While contenders like the Celtics, Lakers, Cavs, and Rockets are strong boarding clubs all above the key +1 rpg threshold as of Jan. 25.

Here are the margin numbers for the top 10 teams this season:
    Lakers: +3.2
    Cavs: +3.1
    Celtics: +5.4
    Magic: -0.1
    Spurs: 0.0
    Nuggets: +0.4
    Hornets: -0.5
    Blazers: +4.3
    Rockets: +2.5
    Hawks: -1.6
Now, one way in which the Magic are similar to the '90s Rockets champions is that they have compensated for poor rebounding with exceptional performance in one of the other Four Factors (statistical categories which correlate most closely with winning), effective field-goal percentage (eFG%).

Specifically, both the Magic and the Clutch City Rockets received an extraordinary advantage in three-point shooting, as eFG% measures field-goal shooting by simply counting each 3-pointer made as worth 1.5 FGM, a more accurate measure of the points scored per each FGM.

In 1993-94, the Rockets ranked just 10th in overall FG%, but were 4th in eFG% because they made 429 3's in a year in which the league average was 270. Those Rockets attempted 1285 3's when the league average was 811.

When the line came in in 1994-95, the Rockets were still way ahead of the pack, going 646-1757 behind the arc in a year in which the league went 450-1255 on average. This boosted HOU from 6th in FG% to 3rd in eFG%. In both seasons, the Rockets easily led the league in both threes made and attempted.

This season, Orlando sports similar numbers from three: 446-1115 (2nd in both categories) for a sizzling league-leading mark of .400 in a year when the league average is 290-746 (.364) so far. The Magic are 2nd in eFG% even though they are 10th in regular FG%. Sound familiar? It seems like the Magic are going to have to keep up the hot shooting from downtown if they hope to replicate the '90s Rockets and compensate for their subpar rebounding with a title.

Here are the three numbers in table form:
              TEAM 3's       LG AVG 3's     FG%  eFG%
1993-94 HOU 429-1285 .334 270-811 .333 10th 4th
1994-95 HOU 646-1757 .368 450-1255 .359 6th 3rd
2008-09 ORL 446-1115 .400 290-746 .364 10th 2nd

(Note that both these clubs are also strong in other of the Four Factors, FT/FGA, on defense, a sign of quality defensive play from a big man inside.)

Still, Orlando could definitely use another big to bring off the bench, maybe a traditional 4-man who can rebound and guard bigs to spell Rashard Lewis would help. Not surprising that the Spurs, Nugs, & Hornets are desperately looking for auxiliary frontcourt help. The Pistons are hurt by Sheed's habitual underachieving board work. Increasing McDyess & Maxiell's minutes could possibly remedy the Pistons' subpar rebounding.


At 8:51 AM, Blogger David said...

rebounding and defense win championships =P
if only people realized that in my local league...

At 9:16 AM, Blogger Kevin Pelton said...

My first thought was that using differential might be showing the importance of defensive rebounding, while offensive rebounding is less important. Apparently this is not the case. The average champion over your original timespan (1987-2006) is 4.2 percent better than league average on the offensive glass and 1.7 percent better on the defensive glass.

The Magic really is quite similar to the 1993-94 Rockets in this regard, in that both are pretty good defensive rebounding teams who never get any offensive boards because of their perimeter-oriented offenses. (By 1994-95, when Houston had dealt Thorpe for Drexler, their rebounding was below average on both ends.) So Orlando is right around the average of the champions in defensive rebounding, but those two Rockets squads are the lone champions who were worse at offensive rebounding.

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At 12:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Four Factors:

Magic are 27th in OREB% and 6th in DOREB%.

The problem is on the offensive side of the floor.

Comparison with the Suns is close, but not quite because they stunk as rebounders on both sides of the floor.

In 2005 Suns were 29th in OREB% and 22nd in DOREB%.

In 2006 Suns were 30th in OREB% and 19th in DOREB%.

In 2007 Suns were 29th in OREB% and Suns were 20th in DOREB%.

At 3:55 PM, Blogger Andrew said...

It seems like the Magic's rebound differential is tied to how they set up on offense. Lewis and Turkoglu aren't the world's best defensive boarders, but they're decent, especially on balls in their zones. As the previous commenter pointed out, the Magic are actually quite good at snagging defensive boards.

On the other hand, a lot of the Magic's offensive sets revolve around having four 40% shooters on the perimeter and Dwight Howard in the middle. While Howard is a beast and average 4 o-rebs a game, he is often the only Magic player even close to the paint. So you see the Magic 27th in offensive rebounds.

I don't think this bodes poorly for the Magic, because they are among the best fundamentally sound teams in the league. They play great defense, rebound well on the defensive end, and have a roster stacked with knockdown three-point shooters. They even have two players who can take the ball to the rim now that Nelson has broken out.

I'm really looking forward to the Eastern Conference semis and finals this year.

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