Friday, June 10, 2011

On Jason Kidd and "Win Time", and the Greatest Clutch Lineup on Earth

Like many others, I did not think that the 2008 trade which sent then-almost-35-year-old Jason Kidd from New Jersey to Dallas for then-almost-25 Devin Harris was a good deal for the Mavs, primarily because of the respective ages of the players, and I certainly didn't foresee Kidd helping to fuel a stirring playoff run in 2011, at 38.

Out of the many amazing things in this remarkable playoff spring by the Dallas Mavericks, that's the primary one I keep coming back to: how is Kidd able to even be out there?

As a reminder, if Dallas can get just one more win, Kidd will become the third oldest player to start on a championship team, behind Kareem in 1987 (age 39) and 1988 (40), and will become the oldest guard to do so.

Obviously, being a guard should make it much tougher for a older player to stay on the court athletically, yet Kidd's not only done so, but look at his defensive assignments in the past three series: they've included Kobe Bryant, Russell Westbrook, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, with some matchups against Kevin Durant after switches. All of them All-NBA First or Second Team players - how is Kidd able to even stay on the floor against these guys at 38? Yet, he's managed to not only survive against these stars but thrive - several of the names mentioned above have been the subject of severe criticism for their play in series vs. Dallas. (Note that Zach Lowe offered typically astute and nuanced analysis of specifically how Kidd has been able to compete against these stars defensively.)

I keep thinking back to the 2010 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, when I covered a panel called What Geeks Don't Get: The Limits of Moneyball, which included Mavericks owner Mark Cuban. Here's part of what I reported:
    [Panel moderator Michael] Lewis asked [Rockets GM Daryl] Morey if he believed in clutch stats, long a controversial difference between common fans - who worship the art of the clutch - and statheads - who tend to believe that the idea of clutch statistics are not definitive and conclusive.

    Morey artfully answered, "We don't make any decisions based on the belief of that." Interestingly, Cuban disagreed, and said that that was one reason he wanted Kidd, whom he believes plays differently in "win time" than he does in the other 45 minutes of the game.
I've always trusted the (fairly controversial) studies which have suggested that there's no consistent difference between clutch and non-clutch performance in baseball, but I can understand how basketball could be different, mainly because players could choose to avoid the big play, whereas baseball have no choice but to come to the plate when they're up, or field the ball when it's hit to them.

Still, I'd consider myself "skeptical but open-minded" on the topic. I believe in data where it is applicable, and that's the part that fascinated me: did Cuban (whose stat analyst, Roland Beech, reportedly works as closely with the coaching staff as any in the league) actually have the data to say Kidd was particularly effective in the clutch?

When Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus did an extensive study on team performance in close games (i.e. those decided by five points or fewer) in 2009, he didn't find any clutch magic. As he concluded:
    There are two extreme schools of thought on close games--those that believe they are primarily decided by luck and those that feel they are primarily decided by teams and demonstrate their true ability. Neither position is supported by the data.

    Instead, what the results tend to show is that the difference between good teams and bad teams is mitigated in close games.... When you think about it, this makes perfect sense. Say you were coaching (or cheering on, if you prefer) an underdog team playing a powerful opponent. If I gave you the opportunity to advance directly to the final five minutes of a close game, even if you were trailing by a couple of points, you would take that scenario because anything could happen over the shorter period. The same logic can be applied to explain why we see more upsets in the one-and-done NCAA Tournament than in the NBA's best-of-seven postseason. The smaller sample draws all teams toward .500
Yet, when Pelton went back to the topic last year following Cuban's comments at Sloan, he noted that the Dallas Mavericks had a history of outperforming its expected performance in close games since 2004-05 which was exceeded only by the New Orleans Hornets.

Here are the season-by-season numbers for Dallas:
    Season    CW   CL    CW%   xCW%    Diff
    ---------------------------------------
    2004-05 14 9 .609 .584 +.024
    2005-06 15 7 .682 .586 +.096
    2006-07 20 4 .833 .606 +.227
    2007-08 9 12 .429 .565 -.137
    2008-09 17 5 .773 .519 +.253
    2009-10 18 7 .720 .545 +.175
    CW/L: Close Wins/Losses
    CW%: Winning percentage in close games
    xCW% Expected winning percentage in close games
In 2010-11, the Mavs did it again, though not by an excessive margin, with a 17-11 (.607) record in close games which exceeded the .582 percentage which would be expected by a team with Dallas' record in non-close games.

(Back in April, Tom Haberstroh had a great piece which noted that the definition of "close games" should not be based on the final score, but rather, whether a game is close at any time in the last five minutes. Check his chart: by that measure, Dallas' record in close games was an exceptional 35-18 (.660) through April 25 (regular season and playoffs). Since that time, Dallas is 10-3 in such situations, running its overall close-game record to 45-21 (.682).)

Of course, Kidd didn't arrive until February, 2008, so these numbers speak to the Dirk-Terry era as a whole. Still, the measured data shows that Kidd has been exceptional in the clutch for the past two seasons.

According to 82games.com, Kidd led the league in plus/minus in clutch situations (defined as "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points") in 2010-11 with +119, and ranked fourth in 2009-10 with +87 (note that LeBron James ranked first).

One stat in particular which stands out has been Kidd's three-point shooting in the clutch, at 45% over the last two seasons, as compared to 38% overall.

Kidd has certainly been a key factor in the several stirring comebacks the Mavs have pulled off in the 2011 Playoffs, and a spin of the NBA.com StatsCube shows that the Mavs have outscored their opponents by a staggering +71.1 points per 100 possessions with Jason Kidd on the floor in clutch situations.

Anecdotal examples of big plays by Kidd in the clutch are all over the place. Yes, he knocked down a huge three to put Dallas ahead 105-100 late in Game 5, but many of his clutch plays have been subtle and/or defensive ones (he's averaging 3.6 steals per minutes in playoff clutch situations), such as a deflection of a LeBron pass which ruined a Miami possession with the score 99-97 last night.

There was a strip of Udonis Haslem following a UD offensive rebound in the massive Game 2 comeback which led to a turnover and fast-break hoop to tie the game at 90-90. In Game 4 mega-comeback vs. Oklahoma City, there was a hustle steal after Russell Westbrook appeared to have him beat.

In what I consider one of the most important games of this whole run - Game 1 vs. the Lakers - Kidd harrassed Kobe Bryant with aggressive defense, helping force two turnovers (and then knocking down the last two FTs) in the final minute, turning a 94-92 L.A. lead with 40 seconds left into a 97-94 Dallas win. Kidd also forced Kobe into tough shots down the stretch of Game 3, helping turn defeat into victory there as well. As lopsided as that series seems in memory after the Game 4 blowout, it easily could have been a 2-2 series if not for superior clutch play by Dallas in Games 1 and 3.

*************************

Certainly, Jason Kidd has performed exceptionally well in the clutch for Dallas, but take a step back, and an even clearer picture develops: the Mavericks lineup of Jason-Kidd-Jason Terry-Shawn Marion-Dirk Nowitzki-Tyson Chandler appears to be the greatest clutch lineup on Earth.

The numbers bear out that this team has been extraordinary in clutch situations for the past two seasons, reaching new heights in these playoffs. We showed you some selected clutch metrics for Kidd above. Let's integrate some other players.

Here are the 2010-11 league leaders in clutch plus-minus:
    Kidd, DAL +119
    Terry, DAL +118
    Nowitzki, DAL + 116
    Chandler, DAL +92
    Westbrook, OKC +90
Here are the 2010-11 league leaders in clutch plus-minus per 48 minutes:
    Marion, DAL +38
    Nowitzki, DAL +38
    Kidd, DAL +37
    Terry, DAL +37
    Williams, CLE/LAC +36
    Chandler, DAL + 34
Here are the 2009-10 league leaders in clutch plus-minus:
    James, CLE +116
    Nowitzki, DAL + 102
    Williams, CLE +95
    Kidd, DAL +87
    Terry, DAL +71
The triumvirate of Kidd-Terry-Nowitzki keep showing up, and clearly the lineup of Kidd-Terry-Marion-Nowitzki-Chandler was the most productive clutch lineup this season.

Now that's continued in the Playoffs and Finals, with multiple major comebacks, and a domination of Miami down the stretch, outscoring them 60-26 in the final six minutes of the five games combined. That's a +34 in the last six minutes cumulatively, while Miami has been +30 in the first 42 minutes.

The data backs up this lineup as a whole as well. We noted earlier that Dallas was outscoring its opposition by 71.1 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs in clutch situations with Kidd on the floor. Here are the numbers in that situation for each of the five members of that lineup:
    Marion +83.3 (38 min)
    Terry +74.3 (49 min)
    Nowitzki +71.8 (50 min)
    Kidd +71.1 (50 min)
    Chandler +68.7 (48 min)
I truly believe that the Mavericks have outperformed their roster's talent level all season, and two things in particular have struck me about this team all season long: they execute exceptionally well, and Rick Carlisle (and his coaching staff) have been exceptionally good at both game planning and in-game adjustments. Both elements are obviously serving Dallas well in clutch situations.

Also, note that another thing Cuban said at the Sloan Conference was that he thought that one of the biggest edges for him was in understanding 5-man lineup performance. Considering that Beech is the creator of 82Games.com, which is where those clutch +/- stats are from, and that he works directly with the Dallas coaching staff, I'm sure the organization is well aware of these numbers.

Have Mark Cuban and Roland Beech found something here? Have they discovered the ultimate clutch lineup? I included the total minutes as a reminder that these are ridiculously small sample sizes. Note that these same metrics show LeBron James to be a premier clutch performer over the last several seasons, which has not translated to clutch play in these Finals, after he was very clutch vs. Boston and Chicago. Please also note the irony that these same clutch Mavs were victims of one of the greatest playoff comebacks ever, in the Easter Saturday resurrection of Brandon Roy in the first round.

But with multiple years of data piling up - punctuated by this spring's stunning playoff run of comebacks - it's getting hard to conclude anything other than Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Jason Kidd being extraordinary, special clutch players.

And the greatest clutch lineup on Earth could be the difference which delivers a long-coveted title to Cuban, Dirk, Jet, J-Kidd and Dallas fans. They need to do it one more time.

Addendum (Sat. 6/11): I've offered some followup thoughts on clutch, looking ahead to Dallas-Miami Game 6, after reading Kevin Pelton's followup to this post from this morning.

Also on The Painted Area: Jay Aych's international scouting reports: Ricky Rubio | Jonas Valanciunas

47 Comments:

At 9:41 AM, Anonymous Jacob said...

Well done, Sir!

 
At 12:21 PM, Blogger Josh said...

Excellent post.

I don't think those players are intangibly "clutch", but have the skills to be better in clutch time basketball. Now, if you think about it, clutch time basketball is different from regular basketball. What are these differences?

1) More leeway is given to defensive players, especially in the area of "touch fouls."

Kidd and Marion are two of the best in the league at getting away with these types of plays, which helps the Mavs immensely.

2) Because of this, teams generally transition to a "give the ball to our best perimeter guy and hope he makes a play" offense. In 2011, it's really difficult to get the ball to your low post scorer in the final minute of the game in good position. (This is why Hedo Turkoglu was so important in 2009)

Dallas' zone, especially when anchored by Tyson Chandler, is frighteningly effective against this type of offense. Carlisle deserves a lot of credit here I think.

3) On the other hand, because of Dirk and Terry, Dallas has the personnel to run their normal offense extremely effectively during late game situations.

When Dirk gets the ball at the elbow, unlike guys like LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Rose, or Anthony, you can't stop the drive, and hope he misses a clean 17 foot fadeaway. If you play him tight, he's skilled enough to drive past his defender and/or draw the foul. If you double Dirk, he can reliably find Terry (or anyone, one of the advantages of being 7 feet tall is that it opens up passing lanes that almost none of the other crunchtime perimeter scorers in the league have). Now, you have the guard who can hit the open three, the midrange shot, or find the open man with the ball, and the defense is already out of position because of the double team. Now Terry can get an open shot, find Kidd on the second pass for an open three, or get the ball back to Dirk if the defense adjusts. And, Dallas has an athletic 7-1 finisher hanging around the rim the whole time, and Kidd, Terry, and Nowitzki are all good enough passers to lob him an alley-oop.

The defensive advantages are obviously somewhat new, starting with the arrival of Kidd, but the Dirk-Terry dynamic has been happening for years. Dallas is uniquely effective in these situations because their two best offensive players are at their most dangerous doing what the other 29 teams have to be forced into doing at the end of the game.

(comment got so long, i decided to make it a blogpost)

 
At 12:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Superb read.

As a neutral observer for much of the playoffs (Celtics fan...), it's certainly been a remarkably "clutch" run for Dallas. Big fourth quarter after big fourth quarter.

 
At 12:40 PM, Blogger JTjarks said...

The Mavs record in close-game scenarios is one of the more remarkable statistics in the NBA right now. Also it goes back to at least '04-'05, since then the Mavs are 103-49 in regular season games decided by 5 points or less.

It's a truly unique statistic, which in my mind makes you look for something truly unique on their roster, which brings us back to Dirk.

http://getbuckets.fantake.com/2011/01/09/dirk-nowitzki-and-lebron-james-black-swans/

There's never been a seven-footer who is a primary option offensively who shoots 90%+ from the line before ... and a lot of times close games are won or lost at the free-throw line. There's almost no scenario where Dallas is up 3 with less than :24 left where they're going to lose -- they can give the ball to Dirk (and to a lesser extent Terry) and he's not going to miss.

It's like having Rivera coming out of the bull-pen, he's shortening the game.

 
At 5:23 PM, Blogger john marzan said...

lebron, lebron, lebron, when you have kid on iso, you gotta post him up.

mike miller, don't leave your man open to double. kidd made you pay with a 3pt shot to tie the game.

 
At 7:03 AM, Anonymous ScottA said...

Great work as always. I was going to say something similar to what Josh said - Dirk is un-guardable without a double team (in that he almost can't be forced into a low-percentage shot) and Dallas surrounds him with shooters in the clutch (Stevenson is often out there on offense instead of Marion). This may vindicate Carlisle's strategy of keeping Dirk's minutes down as well (playing to keep him fresh at the end).

On Lebron's "clutch-ness" - he just makes really high-difficulty, low-percentage shots better then anyone else can. That's about it. He hit tough, contested jumpers against Chi / Boston (terrible shots for him) and isn't hitting them against Dallas.

 
At 8:52 AM, Blogger Jacob Noble said...

Can I do a standing ovation?

 
At 9:25 AM, Blogger jarrod877 said...

Interesting. I would respectfully disagree with the statement that Kidd, Terry, Dirk, etc., are the most clutch lineup on earth. If you are referring to this season alone, maybe. But in my lifetime I would have to go with the lineup of Jordan, Pippen, Kerr, Kukoc. I left out a center cause it didn't matter who was in the middle. And I don't have stats, but it does it really matter? I think their championship rings are the only stats that really make a difference anyway.

 
At 1:40 PM, Blogger wesgd62 said...

"I think their championship rings are the only stats that really make a difference anyway."

The Chicago situation had way more to do with Jordan being the best basketball player of all time, Pippen being arguably the best wing-defender ever, Kerr being one of the best spot-up shooters of all time, and Phil Jackson being one of the best coaches in the game's history. The statistics back all of that up, by the way.

For example, in '97 Chicago beat Utah 4-2 despite not being "clutch" since they lost one game in OT and another by 2 points. They also won a game by 40 points. They were the better team that year and every year they won a championship. Jordan was the best and made some great plays down the stretch, but their rings have little to do with how clutch that team was and a lot to do with how great it was.

 
At 2:59 PM, Anonymous ScottW said...

The Mavs do seem to be clutch, especially in 2011. One quibble: I think the series of lists of top clutch stats of individuals in the middle of the column may be slightly misleading. Those are team advantages reported next to individuals' names who were on the floor. Therefore, it would be news if the other main starters DIDN'T show up on the list also, rather than it being remarkable to see other Mavs in the top 5. For instance, in the first list, Kidd is +119, Terry is +118, Nowitzki is +116. Over 100 of those points are no doubt the SAME buckets the Mavs as a team scored in the clutch, listed 3 or so times per list, tending to overstate a bucket's importance by repeating it. It's not much more actual information than just saying (once) "The Mavs were +140 (or whatever) in clutch time, and here are the 5 players who played most of those minutes and may demonstrate that clutchness exists." Instead, this format is a bit like saying "MJ had 3 championships 1991-93, Scottie Pippen had 3, John Paxson had 3, Bill Cartwright had 3... Therefore that was the best team of all time! All those rings in one place!" Maybe they are the best, maybe they aren't, but don't list John Paxson's three rings as evidence. It was the same championships the others won, and in the form presented, Tyson Chandler's "clutchness" is the same Mavs clutchness as Kidd's - just stated again. Still, interesting analysis, and I think I believe the thesis that the Mavs are demonstrably better than others in crunch time.

 
At 3:00 PM, Anonymous ScottW said...

The Mavs do seem to be clutch, especially in 2011. One quibble: I think the series of lists of top clutch stats of individuals in the middle of the column may be slightly misleading. Those are team advantages reported next to individuals' names who were on the floor. Therefore, it would be news if the other main starters DIDN'T show up on the list also, rather than it being remarkable to see other Mavs in the top 5. For instance, in the first list, Kidd is +119, Terry is +118, Nowitzki is +116. Over 100 of those points are no doubt the SAME buckets the Mavs as a team scored in the clutch, listed 3 or so times per list, tending to overstate a bucket's importance by repeating it. It's not much more actual information than just saying (once) "The Mavs were +140 (or whatever) in clutch time, and here are the 5 players who played most of those minutes and may demonstrate that clutchness exists." Instead, this format is a bit like saying "MJ had 3 championships 1991-93, Scottie Pippen had 3, John Paxson had 3, Bill Cartwright had 3... Therefore that was the best team of all time! All those rings in one place!" Maybe they are the best, maybe they aren't, but don't list John Paxson's three rings as evidence. It was the same championships the others won, and in the form presented, Tyson Chandler's "clutchness" is the same Mavs clutchness as Kidd's - just stated again. Still, interesting analysis, and I think I believe the thesis that the Mavs are demonstrably better than others in crunch time.

 
At 4:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is not that these players are 'clutch', rather, it is that other players are 'anti-clutch' or choke, to put it unkindly.

Example: when we watch a race of sprinters, we see them all leave the gate at the same time, but, close to the finish line, we see one runner gaining on the others! he wins the race, by a hair - But analysis of the race tape shows that NONE of the players were running faster in the final 20 meters , ALL were fastest just after the 75 meter mark.

They all were starting to decellerate or slow down, and one simply slowed down LESS.

In the BIG SHOT situation, the player unfamiliar to the situation ALTERS HIS SHOOTING MOTION. He double clutches or has a hitch in his follow through as he CONCENTRATES ON THIS SHOT, whereas the "clutch player" simply takes the shot.

His shooting percentage is basically the same (or somewhat less, recognizing the more focused defensive pressure) but it does not have the same drop-off that a lesser player has when what is obviously the game/series winner falls into their hands.

To shoot and hit, especially under pressure, you cannot concentrate on anything - you do not "try" you "DO".

 
At 6:54 PM, Anonymous Miley Cyrax said...

ScottW is absolutely correct and does a good job explaining why looking at +/- like is extremely misleading, to say the least. Collinearity is a huge issue, which is why Adjusted +/- came about (but brings about a whole new set of problems).

 
At 7:09 PM, Blogger andytobo said...

Good article--my quibble is this: I understand that including free throws or broadening the meaning of "clutch" gets you in some statistical trouble, but surely narrowing it to this last second shot business is just as bad. I can't help but feel that a point scored within the last minute of a close game is more likely to be statistically relevant than desperation heaves at the buzzer...

 
At 8:58 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

it does matter who is in the middle..
we can't forget Rodman! Jordan Pippen Kukoc Rodman and...Harper

 
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out how to begin. Any suggestions or hints? Thank you!


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